Astros: What would it take to re-sign Gerrit Cole?

The Astros will have to pony up to bring back Gerrit Cole.

Now that Gerrit Cole has set a new Astros franchise record for strikeouts in a season, the obvious question becomes if he’ll get the chance to do it again in 2020. A free agent at the end of the season, Cole’s future with the team is a huge question mark heading into next season.

He’s certainly having one heck of a walk year. He leads the majors in strikeouts, just earned his 19th win on the season, and is battling teammate Justin Verlander for the AL Cy Young Award. The only thing that could raise his stock any higher would be a postseason series MVP award.

He also just recently turned 29 years old, meaning he’s still well within his prime years and should provide some dominant pitching for whichever club signs him. Astros fans are practically begging the team to park a fleet of Brinks trucks in Cole’s driveway, but there will be other suitors as well.

So what would it take for Cole to return to the Astros? There’s a lot to consider, and it’s not quite as simple as ownership needing to pay up. Here’s the current outlook on the chances of Cole returning next year.

Could Be a Record

Cole may be in line for a contract well north of $200 million total, and could end up with the most expensive free agent contract ever given to a pitcher. That distinction currently goes to David Price, who signed a seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox prior to the 2016 season.

However, Cole is about a year younger than Price was at the time he hit free agency. While he did have an excellent walk year, Price also struggled mightily in the postseason for Toronto. If Cole performs well in October, he has a clear argument to blow past Price’s total guarantee.

Another comp would be Max Scherzer. As with Price, Cole is about a year younger than Scherzer was when he got his seven-year, $210 million deal prior to the 2015 season. Scherzer was also coming off a pair of Top-5 Cy Young finishes leading up to his free agency.

The difference, of course, is that Scherzer has actually lived up to that contract and then some, with two Cy Young awards in his first four seasons there. Price, on the other hand, hasn’t quite given the Red Sox what they’d hoped for when they signed him.

Finally, another comp is Cole’s teammate Zack Greinke, who signed a six-year, $206.5 million deal that stands as the largest free agent contract by average annual value ($34.4 million). Greinke was 32 years old in the first year of that deal, but was also coming off a season in which he posted a ridiculous 1.66 ERA.

Given Cole’s age, he seems more likely to be given a contract of seven years or more, and thus could very well break Price’s total value record. It’s also possible, given how dominant he’s been over the past two seasons, that he gets close to or even breaks Greinke’s average annual value. Regardless, it will be a hefty investment for whichever team signs him.

The Market

It’s important to note that Cole is represented by Scott Boras, so he’s unlikely to give the Astros much of a discount. While the free agent market has been notoriously slow and fruitless the past two offseasons, the best players still get paid.

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both got $300 million or more last winter, and Patrick Corbin got a big deal from Washington as well. It’s true that Boras client Dallas Keuchel had to settle for a one-year deal in June, but Cole is a bona fide ace and one of the five best pitchers in the game. Someone is going to give him a blank check.

I would be surprised if the Yankees aren’t heavily involved. They have myriad needs in their rotation and are losing CC Sabathia to retirement. They may not spend quite like they used to, but they have deep pockets and a clear need.

I would also expect the division rival Angels to be in the mix. They seem to never have enough pitching and might be getting desperate to win while Mike Trout is in his prime. They need an ace and may be prepared to throw money at Cole.

A few other teams may also enter the fray. The White Sox have money to burn, as they made a run at Machado last year. The Dodgers always have money, so I wouldn’t count them out. Maybe the Phillies jump into the mix after missing the playoffs.

Also, we’ve seen a number of contracts lately that contain opt-out provisions, giving the player the opportunity to re-enter the free agent market after two or three years. Boras did that with J.D. Martinez, and I could see Cole getting such a provision as well. The Astros probably wouldn’t mind that too much.

At any rate, the Astros are going to have to commit money the likes of which they’ve never committed before. It may be worth it, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy.