Astros: What would it take to re-sign Gerrit Cole?

The Astros will have to pony up to bring back Gerrit Cole.

Now that Gerrit Cole has set a new Astros franchise record for strikeouts in a season, the obvious question becomes if he’ll get the chance to do it again in 2020. A free agent at the end of the season, Cole’s future with the team is a huge question mark heading into next season.

He’s certainly having one heck of a walk year. He leads the majors in strikeouts, just earned his 19th win on the season, and is battling teammate Justin Verlander for the AL Cy Young Award. The only thing that could raise his stock any higher would be a postseason series MVP award.

He also just recently turned 29 years old, meaning he’s still well within his prime years and should provide some dominant pitching for whichever club signs him. Astros fans are practically begging the team to park a fleet of Brinks trucks in Cole’s driveway, but there will be other suitors as well.

So what would it take for Cole to return to the Astros? There’s a lot to consider, and it’s not quite as simple as ownership needing to pay up. Here’s the current outlook on the chances of Cole returning next year.

Could Be a Record

Cole may be in line for a contract well north of $200 million total, and could end up with the most expensive free agent contract ever given to a pitcher. That distinction currently goes to David Price, who signed a seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox prior to the 2016 season.

However, Cole is about a year younger than Price was at the time he hit free agency. While he did have an excellent walk year, Price also struggled mightily in the postseason for Toronto. If Cole performs well in October, he has a clear argument to blow past Price’s total guarantee.

Another comp would be Max Scherzer. As with Price, Cole is about a year younger than Scherzer was when he got his seven-year, $210 million deal prior to the 2015 season. Scherzer was also coming off a pair of Top-5 Cy Young finishes leading up to his free agency.

The difference, of course, is that Scherzer has actually lived up to that contract and then some, with two Cy Young awards in his first four seasons there. Price, on the other hand, hasn’t quite given the Red Sox what they’d hoped for when they signed him.

Finally, another comp is Cole’s teammate Zack Greinke, who signed a six-year, $206.5 million deal that stands as the largest free agent contract by average annual value ($34.4 million). Greinke was 32 years old in the first year of that deal, but was also coming off a season in which he posted a ridiculous 1.66 ERA.

Given Cole’s age, he seems more likely to be given a contract of seven years or more, and thus could very well break Price’s total value record. It’s also possible, given how dominant he’s been over the past two seasons, that he gets close to or even breaks Greinke’s average annual value. Regardless, it will be a hefty investment for whichever team signs him.

Can They Make It Work?

If the Astros are going to bring Cole back, they’re going to have to find a way to fit his mega contract onto the books, and that will be tough to do. The Astros already have $156.4 million in guaranteed payroll obligations next season. Add in the estimated salaries of several players through arbitration, and that brings it to around $207.9 million in total payroll next season.

Verlander is due to make $33 million, while Greinke will make $35 million. Contract extensions for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman kick in, with the two set to make $29 million and $13 million, respectively. George Springer, Carlos Correa and others will be due raises in arbitration, and Michael Brantley is also under contract for $16 million.

On top of that, both Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado are free agents, so the Astros will have to address the catcher position somehow. The bullpen may also need reinforcements, with Will Harris, Hector Rondon, Joe Smith and Collin McHugh all headed for free agency.

The Astros would undoubtedly have to find a trade partner to take on all of Josh Reddick‘s $13 million salary and then give the right field job to Kyle Tucker. That would help, but it still wouldn’t make up for $30 million-plus for Cole and whatever they commit to catchers and relievers.

Plus, adding Cole would make it significantly more difficult for the team to re-sign Springer, who’ll hit free agency after the 2020 season. Brantley’s contract comes off the books then, which will help, but Springer will undoubtedly cost much more than Brantley’s $16 million salary.

It may be a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless. Opening up the checkbook for Cole will most likely push the team’s payroll into luxury tax territory, which requires a team to pay a tax to the league on the amount by which they exceed the threshold. Just ask the Red Sox — it gets expensive quickly.

Still, I would expect the Astros to make whatever attempts they can make to bring Cole back next season. Just don’t be surprised if their current obligations make it nearly impossible for them to outbid other suitors.