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Astros: Yuli Gurriel fills longtime first base void
The Top Prospect Flameouts
It’s not as though the Astros haven’t tried to develop a long-term solution at first base. In fact, they’ve tried repeatedly, going through a few top prospects only to see them fail to establish themselves.
The first was Brett Wallace, whom the team acquired via trade with Toronto in July 2010. He’d been a first round draft pick by the Cardinals in 2008 and was a key piece in the 2009 trade that brought Matt Holliday to St. Louis.
He got plenty of chances in Houston but just could never hit enough. He appeared in 311 total games from 2010-2013 but hit a combined .242/.313/.391 with 29 homers before being cut loose. Incredibly, Wallace was the most productive of the top prospects the Astros tried at first base. He resurfaced with the Padres for two seasons but failed to stick there as well.
Next in line was Jon Singleton, acquired in the July 2011 trade that sent Hunter Pence to Philadelphia. The Astros famously signed him to a five-year contract before he ever played a major league game. As it turned out, he was smart to take it.
Singleton displayed decent power in the minor leagues but hit only .230 in 2013 across three levels combined. He made his major league debut in 2014 but hit an abysmal .168/.285/.335 with 13 homers in 95 games.
He appeared in 19 games in 2015 but was no better, and that would prove to be his last season in the majors. After Singleton continued to post middling numbers in the minors and failed his third drug test, the Astros cut bait in 2018. Unfortunately it appears mental health and addiction issues played a role in him never sticking in the big leagues.
With the trade route not working, the Astros tried to draft their future cornerstone. They used their second round pick in 2014 on AJ Reed after he had a decorated college career at Kentucky. He rose quickly through the minors, posting huge numbers in 2015.
The major leagues were another story, however, as he put up a .164/.270/.262 line in 45 games in 2016. He made it into just three major league games over the next two seasons thanks to Gurriel’s emergence as the primary first baseman.
Though Reed continued to hit in Triple-A, his numbers did steadily decline, so he never really forced his way into the conversation again. The Astros ultimately designated him for assignment in July, and he was claimed by the White Sox. He hit .136/.204/.205 in 14 games before being sent back to the minors.
The Other Contenders
Following Berkman’s departure, the Astros started using Carlos Lee at first base. While he’d long been a productive hitter, by this point in his career his best days were behind him. While splitting time evenly between first base and the outfield, Lee hit .275/.342/.446 in 2011 with 18 homers and 94 RBIs.
His final season, 2012, saw him exclusively play first base (save for one game at DH) for the Astros prior to him being traded to Miami. He hit .287/.336/.411 with just five homers in 66 games. This would prove to be some of the best production they would get out of the position for several years.
In 2013, the Astros brought in veteran Carlos Pena. He had a pair of Top-10 MVP finishes and a Gold Glove in his time with the Rays, but he was clearly on the downside of his career. He split time between first base and DH but hit only .209/.324/.350 with eight homers in 85 games.
The Astros also acquired Chris Carter in advance of the 2013 season in a trade that sent Jed Lowrie to Oakland and also saw Brad Peacock and Max Stassi come to Houston. Carter split time between first base, left field and DH in 2013, played DH almost exclusively in 2014, and played first base almost exclusively in 2015.
He supplied the power the team expected, but he also struck out a bunch and failed to hit for a decent average. His best season was 2014 when he popped 37 homers. As the primary first baseman in 2015, he slumped to a .199/.307/.427 line with 24 homers in 129 games. The Astros non-tendered him after the season.
The club gave Jesus Guzman a shot in 2014 after acquiring him in a trade from San Diego. The 30-year-old played 69 games for the team that season but hit only .188/.272/.248 with two homers. The failed experiment was short lived, at least.
Marc Krauss played 33 games at first base in 2014 as well, but the results weren’t much better. In 67 total games with the Astros that year, he hit just .194/.279/.323 with six homers before being claimed on waivers following the season.
Finally, we have Tyler White, with whom Astros fans are quite familiar. He played 85 games in 2016 but slashed .217/.286/.378 with eight homers. He fared better in 22 games in 2017 and hit fairly well in 2018, popping 12 homers in 66 games and posting a .276/.354/.533 line.
Unfortunately he could not carry that over to this season, hitting .225/.320/.330 with just three homers in 71 games. He was traded to the Dodgers in July.
Gurriel and the Future
Gurriel became the team’s primary first baseman in 2017 and was a solid, if unspectacular contributor in his first two full seasons. He didn’t reach 20 homers in either season, but posted solid batting averages, hit 76 total doubles and was a decent run producer.
He’s stepped up his production this year, though, launching 12 homers in July and another seven in August. At age 35, he’s having a career season, and the Astros are finally enjoying having a first baseman who’s a big time threat at the plate.
As for the future, the job is probably Gurriel’s until he no longer warrants it. At his age, there’s no telling how long he can sustain this level of production, or even remain a productive hitter. But he’s earned some leeway and should keep the job at least through next season.
Seth Beer had been viewed as the first baseman of the future, but he was shipped to Arizona in the Zack Greinke trade. He hit .299/.407/.543 with 16 homers in 63 games for Double-A Corpus Christi before the trade. Interestingly, he hit just .205/.297/.318 with one homer in 24 games for Arizona’s Double-A club following the trade.
Options coming up the pipeline include Triple-A first baseman Taylor Jones. He’s currently ranked as the team’s No. 28 prospect and hit .291/.388/.501 with 22 homers in 125 games this season and is noted as a quality defender at first base.
The Double-A club has a pair of young first basemen. J.J. Matijevic was drafted in 2017 with a pick the Astros got from St. Louis as punishment for the hacking scandal. He hit .246/.314/.423 with nine homers in 73 games for Corpus Christi this season but served his second suspension for testing positive for a drug of abuse.
Matijevic tends to generate high exit velocities, so his value is going to depend on whether he can parlay that into big time power numbers. At age 23, he’s still a ways away from the majors and may not be ready until 2021. He’s currently ranked as the team’s No. 18 prospect.
Jake Adams hit 22 homers combined between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this season, so the 2017 sixth round pick deserves mention. He still has work to do with his contact rate and plate discipline, however, and isn’t listed among the team’s Top 30 prospects.
Next. The McKinsey Process: The Astros path to success. dark
So for the time being, Gurriel is the guy. It’s possible Yordan Alvarez could be made into a first baseman at some point, but he’s yet to play the position at all in the major leagues. For the foreseeable future, the Astros will hope Gurriel continues to mash like he has this season.