Examining the Astros overtaxed bullpen situation

The Astros bullpen has been battered lately, but how much trouble is this group really in?

To say the Astros pitching staff has underperformed recently would be putting things mildly. Much has been said and written about the starting rotation’s woes, as the Astros are in clear need of another reliable starting pitcher.

But the bullpen, once a clear strength, has taken its lumps lately as well. Part of that can be traced to the rotation, as an increasing number of short, poor starts has put more strain on the pen. A couple of long outings by Cy Sneed have helped, but the guys in the bullpen are a little overtaxed right now.

Things aren’t getting any better on that front with the news of Brad Peacock’s setback. With Framber Valdez starting on Monday and a possible bullpen day on Tuesday, the bullpen may get worse before it gets better.

Also, it’s fair to note that a few of these pitchers were performing to otherworldly levels earlier in the season, so some natural regression was inevitable. There’s a reason guys don’t finish full seasons with a 0.50 ERA in the major leagues. You may have a good stretch where you pitch like that, but sooner or later the hitters catch up.

With the July trade deadline coming up, now is a good time to examine the state of the bullpen to get a good idea of where the team stands. Is this group going to be enough to help the Astros win another championship, or should Jeff Luhnow go shopping for a reliever too?

For the purposes of this exercise, I’m breaking the team’s bullpen up into three groups — the back end, middle relief, and the mop-up guys.

Middle Relief

This group has been somewhat hit-or-miss lately, but there’s enough talent here to be sure. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m including Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Collin McHugh in this category.

Rondon’s been the least effective of this bunch, especially lately. He’s been taken deep in each of his last two appearances, and his ERA has slowly climbed throughout May and June. It’s jumped up to 3.44 thanks to his latest outings.

There’s further cause for concern when looking at his overall numbers. His ERA is respectable, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 4.88, suggesting he’s greatly benefited from some good luck in the field. His WHIP is nearly identical to last year’s mark, but there’s an even more worrisome stat.

Rondon’s home run rate has doubled from last year’s, and his walk rate has also spiked. What’s worse, his strikeout rate has declined precipitously, down to just 7.4 per nine innings after being north of 10 in each of the past three seasons. This has resulted in a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio that is much worse than his career average.

On the other hand, Harris has enjoyed a bit of a renaissance this season, although he’s taken a hit lately. He allowed five runs (three earned) across his first three July appearances before striking out the only batter he faced on Saturday. Still, his season ERA sits at 1.91, which would be his best since 2015.

McHugh actually has yet to pitch since the All-Star break, which seems borderline criminal. He’s clearly in no position to move back into the rotation, so he should be utilized out of the bullpen as best as he can. This can only be good for the bullpen as a whole.

McHugh allowed just one run in seven relief appearances since coming off the IL, and he did post a sterling 1.99 ERA in relief in 2018. With Rondon in particular struggling lately, McHugh should get more of those seventh-inning and high-leverage situation assignments. He’s shown he can do it, and Rondon could use a rest.

Still, this is a solid group overall. Perhaps the Astros could add a lefthander to the mix, but they would be in fine shape going into the postseason with these guys forming the bridge to Pressly and Osuna.

The Mop-Up Guys

Here we’ll take a look at the guys who are fixtures in the bullpen but aren’t really candidates for the most important situations. As of now, this includes Chris Devenski, Josh James and Joe Smith.

Devenski’s fall from grace has been difficult to watch. He was one of the game’s best relievers in 2016 and 2017, but 2018 and 2019 have been a different story entirely. He still strikes out hitters at a good pace, but his home run rate has increased and his rate of allowing hits has really spiked.

It’s also not as if he’s had one particularly bad stretch, as he’s been hot and cold pretty much all season. He’s been scored upon in two of his four July appearances, resulting in a season ERA sitting at 4.54. He’s just not a candidate for meaningful innings anymore.

Everyone knows how electric James’ arm is, but that hasn’t translated into sustained success. He strikes out hitters right and left, but he’s also allowing a whopping 5.7 walks per nine innings. He’s also failed to develop any consistency.

Some games he looks like closer material, while in other games he looks just plain lost. If he can’t get his electric repertoire under control, he’s of little use and may end up without a spot on the playoff roster. A slight improvement in that department may push him ahead of Devenski, but right now they’re in a battle to not be the worst guy in the bullpen.

I put Smith on this list simply because he hasn’t pitched yet this season, having just come off the IL. He was solid but unspectacular in 2018, posting a 3.74 ERA in 56 appearances. At age 35 and recovering from an Achilles injury, the Astros may be unsure of what he can give them.

Still, he’s a veteran arm and could move into more of a middle relief role if he can pitch well enough down the stretch. He’s more of a candidate to pitch one inning or less and may be limited to facing right-handed hitters, but there’s a role for him if he can take it.

The Verdict

In spite of the unit’s recent performance, this is still an excellent group overall. Osuna is in a rough stretch but should be fine, while the Astros could certainly utilize McHugh better at this point. Rondon may not be as reliable as he once was, so there may be room for an addition if Luhnow wants to make one.

Alternatively, the Astros could bring in two starters and move Peacock back to the bullpen. With his recent woes, Peacock may not be ready to rejoin the rotation immediately anyway. The Astros could instead give him plenty of time to rest and recover and then use him out of the bullpen once he’s ready.

This would essentially make the bullpen playoff-ready, while at the same time fixing the issues with the rotation. The Astros could bring two starters in right away to shore up the staff, which would probably be all they would need to do.

For the time being, however, the bullpen looks to be in for more work than it can handle. With Peacock’s setback, the suddenly unreliable Framber Valdez may start on Monday, with Tuesday’s starter to be determined. It could just be a bullpen day, which isn’t good news at this point.

Still, on the whole, the Astros’ bullpen is in decent shape. Once the rotation gets fixed, the relievers should no longer have to be overworked, so hopefully they’ll get back into a good rhythm down the stretch.

The past few games notwithstanding, many teams would love to have the bullpen the Astros currently have. The team’s pressing need is in the rotation, and that’s where Luhnow and Co. will be focusing for the next two and a half weeks.

***Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference***