Examining the Astros overtaxed bullpen situation

The Back End

Earlier in the season, the back of the Astros’ bullpen was simply unhittable. The combo of Ryan Pressly in the eighth inning and Roberto Osuna in the ninth was as certain as they come. Now, things are not quite as certain as they once were.

To be fair, this was an area where some regression was inevitable, considering how truly dominant they were in April and May. Osuna in particular seems to have struggled lately, but this is still one of the best late-inning tandems in the game.

Osuna’s ERA had dropped all the way to 0.42 in the second half of May, but he allowed five runs in his next three appearances. He righted the ship after that and was actually enjoying a run of six straight scoreless appearances going into the All-Star break.

He has struggled in the last two games, of course, but his season ERA still sits at a very respectable 2.33. Perhaps a couple days of rest would help, but there’s no reason to be concerned about Osuna at this point.

Pressly did not allow a run in his first 19 appearances this season. He struggled a bit in June, but hasn’t been scored upon in five July appearances thus far. His season ERA still sits at a microscopic 1.31, and there’s no better setup man in the game right now.

In short, the Astros are fine here. Osuna’s put together two poor appearances, but that’s far from reason for alarm. When it comes to trades, the team has a much greater need in the rotation than at the back of the bullpen.

Middle Relief

This group has been somewhat hit-or-miss lately, but there’s enough talent here to be sure. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m including Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Collin McHugh in this category.

Rondon’s been the least effective of this bunch, especially lately. He’s been taken deep in each of his last two appearances, and his ERA has slowly climbed throughout May and June. It’s jumped up to 3.44 thanks to his latest outings.

There’s further cause for concern when looking at his overall numbers. His ERA is respectable, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 4.88, suggesting he’s greatly benefited from some good luck in the field. His WHIP is nearly identical to last year’s mark, but there’s an even more worrisome stat.

Rondon’s home run rate has doubled from last year’s, and his walk rate has also spiked. What’s worse, his strikeout rate has declined precipitously, down to just 7.4 per nine innings after being north of 10 in each of the past three seasons. This has resulted in a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio that is much worse than his career average.

On the other hand, Harris has enjoyed a bit of a renaissance this season, although he’s taken a hit lately. He allowed five runs (three earned) across his first three July appearances before striking out the only batter he faced on Saturday. Still, his season ERA sits at 1.91, which would be his best since 2015.

McHugh actually has yet to pitch since the All-Star break, which seems borderline criminal. He’s clearly in no position to move back into the rotation, so he should be utilized out of the bullpen as best as he can. This can only be good for the bullpen as a whole.

McHugh allowed just one run in seven relief appearances since coming off the IL, and he did post a sterling 1.99 ERA in relief in 2018. With Rondon in particular struggling lately, McHugh should get more of those seventh-inning and high-leverage situation assignments. He’s shown he can do it, and Rondon could use a rest.

Still, this is a solid group overall. Perhaps the Astros could add a lefthander to the mix, but they would be in fine shape going into the postseason with these guys forming the bridge to Pressly and Osuna.

The Mop-Up Guys

Here we’ll take a look at the guys who are fixtures in the bullpen but aren’t really candidates for the most important situations. As of now, this includes Chris Devenski, Josh James and Joe Smith.

Devenski’s fall from grace has been difficult to watch. He was one of the game’s best relievers in 2016 and 2017, but 2018 and 2019 have been a different story entirely. He still strikes out hitters at a good pace, but his home run rate has increased and his rate of allowing hits has really spiked.

It’s also not as if he’s had one particularly bad stretch, as he’s been hot and cold pretty much all season. He’s been scored upon in two of his four July appearances, resulting in a season ERA sitting at 4.54. He’s just not a candidate for meaningful innings anymore.

Everyone knows how electric James’ arm is, but that hasn’t translated into sustained success. He strikes out hitters right and left, but he’s also allowing a whopping 5.7 walks per nine innings. He’s also failed to develop any consistency.

Some games he looks like closer material, while in other games he looks just plain lost. If he can’t get his electric repertoire under control, he’s of little use and may end up without a spot on the playoff roster. A slight improvement in that department may push him ahead of Devenski, but right now they’re in a battle to not be the worst guy in the bullpen.

I put Smith on this list simply because he hasn’t pitched yet this season, having just come off the IL. He was solid but unspectacular in 2018, posting a 3.74 ERA in 56 appearances. At age 35 and recovering from an Achilles injury, the Astros may be unsure of what he can give them.

Still, he’s a veteran arm and could move into more of a middle relief role if he can pitch well enough down the stretch. He’s more of a candidate to pitch one inning or less and may be limited to facing right-handed hitters, but there’s a role for him if he can take it.

The Verdict

In spite of the unit’s recent performance, this is still an excellent group overall. Osuna is in a rough stretch but should be fine, while the Astros could certainly utilize McHugh better at this point. Rondon may not be as reliable as he once was, so there may be room for an addition if Luhnow wants to make one.

Alternatively, the Astros could bring in two starters and move Peacock back to the bullpen. With his recent woes, Peacock may not be ready to rejoin the rotation immediately anyway. The Astros could instead give him plenty of time to rest and recover and then use him out of the bullpen once he’s ready.

This would essentially make the bullpen playoff-ready, while at the same time fixing the issues with the rotation. The Astros could bring two starters in right away to shore up the staff, which would probably be all they would need to do.

For the time being, however, the bullpen looks to be in for more work than it can handle. With Peacock’s setback, the suddenly unreliable Framber Valdez may start on Monday, with Tuesday’s starter to be determined. It could just be a bullpen day, which isn’t good news at this point.

Still, on the whole, the Astros’ bullpen is in decent shape. Once the rotation gets fixed, the relievers should no longer have to be overworked, so hopefully they’ll get back into a good rhythm down the stretch.

The past few games notwithstanding, many teams would love to have the bullpen the Astros currently have. The team’s pressing need is in the rotation, and that’s where Luhnow and Co. will be focusing for the next two and a half weeks.

***Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference***