What are the chances the Astros trade for Max Scherzer?

Is there a possibility the Astros could trade for Washington ace Max Scherzer?

Now that we know the Astros will be seeking pitching help leading up to the trade deadline, there are several names being mentioned as possible targets. One name I’m seeing put forth by fans is a big one — Nationals ace Max Scherzer.

It’s hard not to salivate at the thought of adding Scherzer to the top of the Astros rotation alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. This would give the Astros an incredible trio of aces and make them instant World Series favorites. In fact, with all due respect to Verlander, Scherzer may be the best pitcher on the planet at this point.

The Astros could have Scherzer and Verlander go 1-2 in the rotation, with Cole as the third starter and Wade Miley as the fourth. This would push Brad Peacock to the bullpen once the playoffs roll around, giving A.J. Hinch a multi-inning weapon to have at his disposal.

Combine that with the depth the Astros have at the back end of the bullpen and you have the makings of the game’s best pitching staff. That incredible rotation backed up by the likes of Will Harris, Hector Rondon, Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna could lead the Astros to a second title.

However, acquiring Scherzer will have several obstacles, and there’s a question as to whether he would even be available in the first place.

Could the Astros Snag Him?

The first question would be if he’ll even be available, and chances are he won’t be. Entering play on Saturday, the Nationals are 41-40, just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. With that being the case, the Nationals may actually be buyers at the trade deadline, depending on how they do in July. With a solid month, they’ll be in the thick of the playoff race.

It would take a monumentally bad July for Washington to consider selling. Even if they did, I don’t think they would trade Scherzer unless they were completely blown away with an offer. They would be more likely to trade guys who are expendable or who are in the last years of their deals.

With Bryce Harper gone to Philadelphia, Scherzer is now the face of their franchise and is under contract for two more seasons. Even if the Nationals crater in July, they would fully intend to be contenders in 2020. You don’t do that by trading your ace away.

Plus, let’s not forget the Astros had a deal in place for Harper last year before Nationals ownership nixed it. If their ownership wouldn’t trade a pending free agent in Harper, they surely won’t trade Scherzer. The idea of moving him may simply be a non-starter.

Still, the Nationals front office would at least listen to trade proposals if they fall out of contention in July. But it would probably take an astronomical offer to pry Scherzer loose, and the Astros might not be interested in doing that.

What Would Scherzer Cost?

Let’s say theoretically that Washington would consider moving him. What would the Astros have to give up to acquire Scherzer? As noted previously, they would probably have to blow the Nationals away with a rich offer to get the deal done.

The Astros might be fine with trading Kyle Tucker, but Washington already has good young talent in its outfield. The Nats would probably prefer Forrest Whitley to replace Scherzer, and that would just be the starting point. It would probably take another of the team’s top 10 prospects, plus a mid-level prospect to get close to a deal. They might also have to outbid other suitors such as the Yankees.

If the Astros are intent on keeping Whitley, it might take both Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas, plus another solid prospect as well (perhaps in the top 15 prospects in the organization). But if another club is willing to offer their best prospect, the Astros would have to raise or fold.

Then there’s the issue of Scherzer’s salary. His total salary for this year and the next two years is just north of $126 million. Yes, that’s $42 million per season. A good chunk of that is deferred through 2028, but nonetheless that’s a lot of money.

The Astros are wanting to stay under the luxury tax, and picking up Scherzer’s tab could seriously jeopardize that. The Nationals would undoubtedly want a trade partner to pick up a significant portion of the money, but the Astros could be limited in that regard.

The Verdict: Extremely Unlikely

Astros fans can dream, but if we’re being realistic, this just isn’t happening. Scherzer most likely won’t be available anyway, but even if he were, there are several obstacles to completing a deal.

If the Nationals were to consider trading him, the Astros would certainly kick the tires, at least. They’ll do their homework on every pitcher who would potentially be available. But Jeff Luhnow learned from the Carlos Gomez trade that it’s better to not make a move than it is to make a bad one. He’ll do everything he can to make the team better, but he won’t overpay.

It would be nice to have Scherzer, but acquiring him would not guarantee the Astros another ring. Fans should set their sights on more realistic targets, and there are several who could possibly end up in an Astros uniform before August 1. Scherzer is not the only pitcher who could give the Astros staff the boost it needs.

***Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference***