How do the projections like the Astros in 2019?

On paper, the Astros have one of the best teams in 2019. The projection systems seem to agree.

Well, the Astros have high expectations again this year, right? In fact, there are a lot of good reasons to support why we think Houston will perform well in 2019.

Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, for example, were noticeably affected by injuries last season, which diminished their impact in the postseason. Michael Brantley‘s left-handed bat in the middle of this strong right-handed lineup will pay dividends. Robinson Chirinos brings another capable bat to a position — catcher — that lacked a strong presence in last season’s second half.

Although Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers Jr., and (most likely) Dallas Keuchel no longer occupy a spot in this year’s rotation, this staff is still led by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The bullpen looks like a quality unit, especially if certain relievers bounce back in 2019.

Basically, there is a lot to like about this year’s Astros. They should win a lot of games and probably come away with their third consecutive AL West title. Heck, another long postseason run is expected from this roster.

The projections are also bullish on Houston. Let’s take a look at three notable systems: FanGraphs’ Depth Charts, PECOTA by Baseball Prospectus, and FiveThirtyEight.

• FanGraphs: 96-66
• PECOTA: 98-64
• FiveThirtyEight: 98-64

At first glance, I would dare say that the projections could be little low on the Astros. I must add not by much, but this a club coming off consecutive 100-plus win seasons for the first time in franchise history.

On the other hand, it is really hard to win over 100 games in baseball every single season. While projection systems aren’t infallible, I do feel confident in saying that a win total ranging from the high nineties to the low one hundred range is the expected outcome.