Predicting the Astros’ Opening Day Lineup

The Astros open their season in Tampa exactly one week from today, which means it is time to discuss how the team will look on Opening Day. In this instance, let’s concentrate on the lineup.

There is a lot to like about the Astros in 2019. For one, the pitching staff should remain among the best in the game, although there were some notable departures from the rotation in the offseason. But pitching is only part of the game; teams also need players to hit. Preferably, you want plenty of quality hitters instead of weak ones. Oh, I see the 2005 Astros are waving at me.

The 2019 version of the Astros look to have one of the better lineups on paper. Of course, it all hinges on whether certain players bounce back (See: Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick), if others take another step forward (See: Tony Kemp, Tyler White), the new additions help like we hope (See: Michael Brantley, Robinson Chirinos), and if others can come close to replicating their best (See: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman).

Now, let’s take a swing at who’ll be in the Astros’ Opening Day lineup one week from now.

1. George Springer – RF

It is obvious who the Astros prefer batting leadoff most games, which doesn’t come as a surprise. Springer only had three plate appearances that didn’t occur with him batting first in the lineup last season. In 617 plate appearances at that particular batting order position, the 29-year old slashed .266/.347/.436 with 22 home runs and a .784 OPS.

Sure, Springer had a bit of a down year in 2018, but he can set the tone early from top of the lineup. While others may want their leadoff hitter to get on-base at a higher clip, it is hard to justify as Springer’s power more than makes up for that. Thanks to facing a left-hander starter on the mound, I see Springer playing right field while the Astros move right-handed hitter Jake Marisnick to center, which we also saw on Opening Day last year against the Rangers.

2. Jose Altuve – 2B

Not nearly as obvious as Springer, but this feels right? While Altuve could lead off, as he did in years past, there isn’t much of a drop off in terms of OPS in his career (.818 batting 1st, .795 batting 2nd).

Altuve is arguably better hitting third during his career (.855 OPS), but you can’t go wrong placing the 2017 AL MVP anywhere among the top three spots in the lineup. Honestly, I could see where Altuve will be shuffled between batting second and third, depending on circumstances.

3. Alex Bregman – 3B

Bregman batted third in 22 games last season, which is noticeably less than the 96 games he batted second. While the small sample rule is invoked here, it is also hard to ignore Bregman’s 1.008 OPS while batting third in 2018. Like Altuve above him, I can also see Bregman hitting second at certain times. The Astros can’t really go wrong either way, but I see the third baseman opening the year as the number three hitter.

4. Carlos Correa – SS

Don’t let the back injury from last season, while concerning, take away from Correa’s potential. While the former first overall pick only has 33 plate appearances batting fifth, Correa has the potential to blossom at that spot of the lineup. Although Brantley will likely hitting in front of him most games, the Astros shortstop should still have plenty of opportunities.

Well, there is a small snag in that plan: Blake Snell is a left-hander, hence why I listed Correa as the cleanup hitter for this game. As long as that back is fine, I expect for the Astros shortstop to pick up where he left off earlier in 2018 before the back injury. Don’t forget that Correa has an .820 OPS batting cleanup for his career, if that counts for anything.

5. Yuli Gurriel – 1B

Snell, the Rays’ scheduled Opening Day starter, limited left-handed hitters to a .413 OPS while only walking nine in 2018. Considering the fact that Gurriel has roughly the same OPS (.775 vs. RHP, .766 vs. LHP) for his career, regardless of pitching hand, it is easy to see why the right-hander could possibly bat fifth in the lineup.

6. Michael Brantley – LF

One of the key draws about Brantley was his consistent left-handed bat and how that bat would help break up the Astros right-handed heavy lineup. Honestly, he is likely to hit cleanup more times than not to start the season. Houston needed a left-handed bat to somewhere early in the lineup to keep pitchers off-balance.

Against Snell though, I don’t see Brantley batting higher than fifth or sixth. After all, his .702 career OPS against left-handers doesn’t look quite as attractive as his .817 OPS against right-handers. He will still be in the lineup, but lower than what we may become accustomed to this season.