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Astros: Looking at FanGraphs odds for the 2019 season

By Cody Poage

WEST PALM BEACH, FL - MARCH 14: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros hits the ball against the Miami Marlins during a spring training game at The Fitteam Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 14, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)
WEST PALM BEACH, FL - MARCH 14: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros hits the ball against the Miami Marlins during a spring training game at The Fitteam Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 14, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images) /
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Projections aren’t an infallible system, but it beats nothing, right?

Coming off a 103-win season in 2018, the Astros are once again in prime position to make another run in the postseason in 2019. There isn’t a clearly better team than Houston, on paper. While some familiar faces no longer play for the Astros, the club itself finds itself with a quality roster up-and-down.

As for the projection systems, most, if not all, are bullish on Houston’s chances to not only win the AL West for the third consecutive season, but also win another World Series title. For fun, let’s take a look at FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds for the 2019 season in the AL West.

AL West – Division Odds

Astros – 88.1%
A’s – 7.7%
Angels – 3.8%
Mariners – 0.4%
Rangers – 0.1%

AL West – Make Playoff Odds

Astros – 94.9%
A’s – 32.7%
Angels – 19.1%
Mariners – 2.4%
Rangers – 0.6%

AL West – Win World Series

Astros – 18.3%
A’s – 1.3%
Angels – 0.5%
Mariners – 0.0%
Rangers – 0.0%

Overall, the Astros are the overwhelming favorite across the board in the AL West. No surprise there, honestly. While the A’s and Angels could present challenges in 2019, the Astros should have the edge in overall talent if everyone performs close to their projections and remain healthy.

For the rest of baseball, there are a lot of intriguing division races in the NL. The NL East, for example, have four team currently projected to win at least 83 games according to FanGraphs. At this point in time, it is difficult to pinpoint a clear favorite in that division. For the NL Central, there is a possibility that all five teams could have win totals of at least 75 games. While it’ll likely be a battle between the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs in the division, one shouldn’t discount the Pirates and Reds. As for the NL West, it is the Dodgers division to lose; however, the Rockies and Padres are two clubs to watch closely.

Back in the AL, there isn’t a lot that has changed compared to last season. The Red Sox and Yankees will likely stay atop the standings in the AL East, with the Rays on the periphery. The AL Central probably still runs through Cleveland for one more season, especially if the Twins don’t see incremental improvements from their young core.

Next. Top Prospect Yordan Alvarez has impressed In Spring Training. dark

The Astros should feel good about their chances in winning a second World Series title in three years. But possessing the highest probability of winning the World Series on March 18, 2019 doesn’t really mean anything. After all, there are four other clubs with a double digit chance to win the Fall Classic in 2019: Yankees (18.2%), Indians (13.2%), Dodgers (12.1%), and Red Sox (10.9%).

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