Astros: Which pitching prospect is ready to be the “Next Man Up”?

Josh James, 25, was drafted by Houston in 2014 in the 34th round, out of Western Oklahoma State College. James steadily rose through the minor league system, reaching the AAA level in 2018 and a late season call-up to the Astros last season. He shot up the rankings to the #4 position in Houston’s top 30 MLB Pipeline Prospects, after not even appearing on the list in 2017.

James MLB scouting grades looks good, with a well above average fastball. The exception was his pitch control which was graded as slightly below average. The system is on a 20-80 scale, with 20-30 being well below average, 40-50 below average, 50 average, 60 above average and 70 well above average.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55

His four-seam fastball is the gem of his pitching repertoire, although that didn’t use to be the case. Early on in the minors, his fastball sat in the low 90’s. He now averages 97.7 MPH and has been known to exceed 100 MPH. He accredits the increase in velocity to his diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea. He augments the heater with a developing slider and a changeup that’s averaging 89.1 MPH.

James was named Minor League Pitcher of the Year due to his 171 strikeouts in 114.1 innings pitched. He led the minors with an impressive 13.5 SO/9 at an average rate of 36.3%. That pace didn’t drop off after he was called up to the majors, still maintaining a 13.5 SO/9 and strikeout rate of 37.5% with the Astros.

He appeared in six games late last season with the Astros, starting in three and appearing in relief in three. He didn’t disappoint, compiling an ERA of 2.35 and winning two of his three starts and earning two holds in his three relief spots.

James could be one of the prospects that shines for the Astros, and his efforts haven’t gone unnoticed. He has definitely earned the right to prove himself as a legitimate big-league starter.

“We started talking a little bit about what he could do maybe in the ‘pen,” the skipper told MLB.com. “And then we had a spot start available and he came up and did exactly what he had been doing in the Minors — struck out guys, calm demeanor, plus stuff across the board. And he stuck.”

Framber Valdez, 25, was plucked form the Dominican Republic at the age of 21, considered to be old for international recruiting standards. The Astros were able to get him for a $10K signing bonus, which is looking more and more like a steal.

Valdez’s MLB scouting report gives him high marks for his two-seam fastball and his curveball that tends to have a deceiving drop at the plate, that fools righties and lefties. His changeup rates a little low due to his ability to keep it in the strike zone. He averages in the low 90’s with his fastball, 76-80 range with his curveball and a sinker that reaches the low 90’s.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45

The #12 ranked prospect of the Astros rose fairly quickly through the minor league system, reaching the high A level within the first few months of his arrival. Last season he jumped to AA in the first two months, then moved up to the AAA Fresno shortly after, appearing in just two games before being called up to the Astros in August.

Between his AA-AAA appearances in 2018, Valdez had 129 strikeouts in 103 innings giving him a 11.3 SO/9 while walking 2.8/9 innings. He’s known for producing a high ground out to fly out ratio and only allowed 7 HRs in the minors last season. Valdez was named Pitcher of the Month that July, prior to his call up.

In the left-hander’s eight games as an Astro he went 4-2 with an ERA of 2.19, striking out 34 batters in 39 innings of work. He definitely left an impression on the front office. Some say he may be more suited as a reliever than a starter. But don’t tell that to GM Jeff Luhnow.

“He’s got a repertoire of pitches that allows him to be a starter from the left side. He’s opened AJ’s eyes,” Luhnow stated, referencing Astros’ manager AJ Hinch, who is unabashed in his praise for Valdez: “He’s been very impressive with his poise and his ability to land his breaking ball.”

Forrest Whitley, 21, has widely been touted as not only Houston’s top pitching prospect, but one of the best in baseball. Whitley is ranked #2 overall below Kyle Tucker and the #1 pitching prospect in the organization. He’s also the top ranked pitcher in the MLB Pipeline and 8th out of all positions.

He was the 17th pick in the first round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft, straight out of Alamo High School, San Antonio, TX. In 2017, his first full season, he became one of only five pitchers this century to reach the AA level in their first complete season as a first-round prep draftee. The other four are Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Dylan Bundy, not bad company.

Whitley grades out the best, of the three pitchers analyzed here. His fastball rates above average and is his strength, ranging 92-97 MPH, that cuts and runs well. It can be a intimidating pitch coming from a lanky 6’7″ frame. His curveball also grades above average and he adds a quality slider and changeup to his arsenal.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60

His 2017 season between three minor league teams gave a look into his potential as a future star. In 23 games he had a 2.93 ERA and had an impressive 13.9 SO/9 innings, only allowing 5 HRs in the process. Whitley missed the first 50 games of the 2018 season due to violation of the leagues drug policy. But when he returned in June, he took off right where he left.

The front office thinks so highly of Whitley, they reportedly turned down a trade for James Paxton, not willing to give up their #1 pitching prospect. Luhnow has made it clear that Whitley won’t be involved in any future trade.

“We’ve said from the beginning, Whitley’s not going anywhere except to Houston at some point in the near future.” Jeff Luhnow via Houston Chronicle

Whitley has been invited to participate in the 2019 Spring Training. It will be exciting to see his progress, along with the other pitchers mentioned. These pitchers are by no means the only ones that will be monitored closely this upcoming season. The Astros’ top fifteen prospects consist of ten pitchers. Some won’t make it to the big-leagues yet, a few may be designated to help in the bullpen, but one or two may be relied upon to fill some big shoes in the rotation.