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Astros: Assessing the pitcher options ahead of the Winter Meetings
The starting rotation of the Astros’ pitching staff has become a situation of need this offseason. What are their options going into the Winter Meetings?
A few of the top pitchers on the market have already been taken off the board. The Washington Nationals have signed free agent Patrick Corbin, the New York Yankees acquired James Paxton via trade and the Boston Red Sox have re-signed Nathan Eovaldi. Some teams have made big splashes in the battle to lure in that elite pitcher, but the Astros haven’t even caused a ripple.
Jeff Luhnow, President of Baseball Operations and General Manager, is well aware of the situation and trust has to be placed in him to remedy the situation, as we enter the Winter Meetings. Luhnow has done it in the past, bringing in Charlie Morton prior to the 2017 season and acquiring Justin Verlander late that same year. Then last year he added Gerrit Cole in the mix. With the aforementioned pitchers, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr., he created one of the most feared pitching rotations in baseball.
It’s probably no coincidence that starting pitcher was the first thing that came to Jeff Luhnow’s mind, when asked what were the utmost important needs for the Astros, going into the Winter Meetings. Those meetings begin Sunday, Dec. 9 and end Thursday, Dec. 13 with the Rule 5 Draft.
When asked what’s on the Astros’ front burner, Luhnow said starting pitcher, “maybe adding an arm to the bullpen potentially and another bat for the lineup.”
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) December 6, 2018
Verlander and Cole are currently the only remaining pitchers left from last years rotation guaranteed to return for the 2019 season. Keuchel and Morton are now dangling out there on the free agent market and McCullers will miss the entire upcoming season, recuperating from Tommy John surgery.
There are several routes the Astros can take to fortify their pitching staff. They could make that big splash utilizing the trade market, sign one of the available free agent pitchers or look internally at their own organization for the answer. Let’s look further into the different options that are at their disposal.
Option 1: Utilizing the trade market
The first thing to consider is who Houston would put out there as trade bait. The one thing that Jeff Luhnow has made very clear is that top-tier prospects will not be included in any trade talks. So it can be safely assumed that, at the very least, Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker will still be wearing Astros uniforms come 2019.
Jeff Luhnow: "We've said from the beginning (Forrest) Whitley isn't going anywhere, except to Houston in the near future."
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 30, 2018
Beyond the untouchables, Whitley, Tucker and possibly Yordan Alvarez, the Astros have a pretty deep pool of pitching and position prospects that could be offered up in any given trade scenario. Houston could conceivably afford to lose two or three players with promising forecasts and not mortgage the future in the process. Cionel Perez, J.B. Bukauskas, Framber Valdez and Freudis Nova are just a few names to mention.
Some of the teams seeking a deal for their elite pitchers would undoubtedly require a major leaguer in any swap, to help fill their immediate needs. Luhnow has also talked of adding another bat to the Astros’ lineup. Depending on what position the newly acquired bat would occupy, Houston could perhaps part ways with the likes of Tony Kemp, Jake Marisnick or Yuli Gurriel.
There are quite a few big-name pitchers being trotted out for those teams in need. Needless to say, there are also quite a few teams battling it out to scoop up these same pitchers. Noah Syndergaard, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, and recently, Madison Bumgarner are just a few names involved in the latest trade rumors around the MLB. Obviously, pitchers of this caliber would most likely come at a high cost but could be well worth it.
Houston would then have to weigh out the cost of trading for any one of these pitchers. What players would the other team want in return? What is the length and amount of the existing contract of the pitcher coming our way? The age of the incoming pitcher and how many more serviceable years does he have left. But as we’ve seen, pitching coach Brent Strom seems to do wonders with whoever enters the scene.
Option 2: Signing a free agent
The list of free agent pitchers is a long one, but dwindling by the day. At last count, there were over forty starting pitchers initially available on the market. At least seven of those have already signed with another team or resigned with their existing team. The advantage of choosing this route? No prospects are lost in the process.
The free agent market also provides the Astros with a much wider range of pitchers to choose from. The current list of pitchers covers the entire spectrum. Anyone from the seemingly eternal 46-year-old Bartolo Colon to the 28-year-old Yusei Kikuchi from Japan. From righties to southpaws or flamethrowers to the finesse pitchers, it’s available.
Two of the starting pitchers on that free agent list are none other than the Astros very own Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel. Houston has put a one-year offer on the table to retain Morton, but no deal as of yet. The Tampa Bay Rays are among several teams that have expressed interest in Morton, possibly raising his cost. Teams need to keep in mind he has outwardly indicated he has no interest in pitching more than a couple more years. Keuchel has also drawn interest from several teams recently.
Former Astro J. A. Happ is also still available and has had somewhat of a resurgence of his career. He would also fill the need for a left-handed starter Houston is currently lacking. Another available pitcher that seemed to resurrect his career last season is Anibel Sanchez of the Atlanta Braves. The list goes on, Trevor Cahill, Clay Buchholz etc.
As you can see, there are plenty to choose from, but you can’t wait long. The list will get shorter day by day. It’s just a matter of what you’re willing to pay and for how long.
Option 3: Rebuild internally from the organization
As stated earlier, Forrest Whitley is apparently going nowhere and there is more talent where he came from. The Astros can also rob from the bullpen and move a reliever or two with starting experience back into the rotation. Then finally, as mentioned before, they could re-sign one their pitchers turned free agent.
Whitley, 21, has been widely projected to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball today. The first round draft pick in 2016 is Houston’s #2 prospect and #8 on the MLB Pipeline. He had a great showing in this year’s Arizona Fall League with 36 SOs in six starts and had an ERA of 2.42. One downfall is the fact that he has yet to pitch above the AA level.
Some scouts say Forrest Whitley is one of the most promising pitching prospects they have ever SEEN. https://t.co/GvhNMQu6SQ pic.twitter.com/rss0o6YJfZ
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) December 3, 2018
Josh James, 25, is another intriguing prospect within Houston’s organization. James was called up late last season and didn’t disappoint. In six regular season appearances, three of those starts, he compiled a 2.35 ERA winning the last two games he started. The postseason, however, did seem to be overwhelming for the inexperienced James.
The bullpen is one place the Astros are more than likely to go to for one of the rotation slots. Houston is leaning toward bringing Collin McHugh back into a starting role. A role that he is no stranger to, serving as a regular starter for the Astros from 2014-17, winning 19 games in 2015. Brad Peacock is another pitcher that could be borrowed from the bullpen with starting experience.
Next. Astros: Taking stock of the offseason as Winter Meetings begin. dark
Only time will tell whether the Astros decide to make a big move in free agency or the trade market, or they attempt to stand pat and promote from within. Keep your eyes and ears open, no telling what Jeff Luhnow might have up his sleeve in this year’s Winter Meeting.