Astros: Gauging the AL West as the offseason simmers

Unless something drastic changes this offseason, the AL West division title likely runs through Houston in 2019.

We as a society often focus on the final result when examining history. The victors of war, for example, are considered a focal point. When a war was won by one faction or another, they then held the influence to shape the world around them by their particular set of values and systems. Opposing parties either had to conform or discover how to remove the ruling system to institute their own. When the result is obviously detrimental to society, it is crucial to remember how we arrived at previous events, unless we want to repeat an undesirable result sometime in the future.

As the philosopher, poet, essayist, and novelist George Santayana wrote in “The Life of Reason”:

“Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.”

There is an undeniable value in examining the process that leads to a final result. When reviewing the past, we search to find answers to how specific events unfolded. By the way, this line of thinking doesn’t only apply to the tragedy known as war. It arguably applies across the realm of life. The one trifling region I would to expand upon is baseball and the outlook of the AL West in 2019. There are five teams that would love to topple each other in the standings, although the realistic state of their clubs temper such expectations.

As you likely know, the Astros were the victors of the AL West title for the past two seasons. Most people only care about that one fact in the grand scheme. Yes, Houston ran away with the title in 2017 when it finished 21 games ahead of the second-place Angels. But the 2018 race for the title was much closer as the Astros won only six more games than the second-place Athletics. Don’t forget about the Mariners and Angels, who both held first place in the AL West for various amounts of time. And the Astros somehow won two more games despite a far more competitive AL West.

Like I mentioned earlier, it is crucial to review the history of how events unfolded. History and outlook does dictate future action, which is apparent in the current state of the AL West.

Astros Outlook

Coming off a 103-win season in 2018, the Astros are again the early favorites in the AL West. While sixty percent of their vaunted starting rotation is potentially gone in 2019, there is enough talent on this roster to carry the team. Plus, the front office led by Jeff Luhnow looks like an active player in free agency and trade rumors.

Areas to address: Catcher, starting pitcher, left fielder (?), left-handed reliever

Google “Astros” and “rumors”, and you’ll see plenty involving the club. A popular one is trading for catcher J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins, although I don’t know if Miami will receive the package they’re holding out for this offseason. Also, watch out for free agent catchers Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal. Martin Maldonado, who spent part of the 2018 season with the Astros, is another possible solution.

James Paxton was another favorite trade candidate until the Yankees swooped in. That’s fine though as I think it is safer to hang on to top prospect Forrest Whitley. Nathan Eovaldi is a name to watch this offseason along with J.A. Happ, both of whom would fill in nicely in the Astros’ rotation. A trade for a starter from Arizona or Cleveland is also a possibility.

Unless Houston decides Kyle Tucker isn’t ready for the full-time job, or used as a trade chip, the Astros may sign another outfielder to go with George Springer and Josh Reddick. A.J. Pollock and Michael Brantley are two notable names to watch along with Andrew McCutchen. I’d also expect for rumors to pick up steam about certain left-handed relievers on the market. Wouldn’t mind another left-handed bat, but don’t hold your breath about Marwin Gonzalez returning.

Mariners Outlook

Despite winning 89 games, the Mariners found themselves well out of the postseason race by September. A classic good, but not good enough team in 2018, which further fuels the fresh rebuild. The longest postseason drought in baseball continues.

Trading Paxton to the Yankees for a package headlined by Justus Sheffield feels a bit light, but remains better than hanging on to the former. Mike Zunino is also long gone to Tampa. Edwin Diaz, Mike Leake, and Mitch Haniger are a few names to watch this offseason, although I doubt all are traded this offseason. If general manager Jerry Dipoto can somehow convince the Mets to trade for Robinson Cano, who is still a useful player, then Seattle could shed some unwanted salary. Not a lot, mind you, as New York probably doesn’t want to assume the rest of his contract. But every little bit helps, right? Plus, it is the Mets we’re talking about.

Areas to address: Well, everywhere

Unless he is traded this winter, there is a distinct possibility that the Mariners may choose Leake as their Opening Day starter. Yikes. For a team looking to rebuild, expect for the roster to feature a few low-risk players, who could transform into desirable trade chips by July. Returning players in Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager, and Leake are all trade candidates either this winter or into next season. Adding another catcher is priority, but they probably won’t land one of the more premier names. Signing a cheaper starter or two is one route to go in the near future. The prospects they receive at the start of the rebuild will help determine if the postseason extends well into another decade.

It became painfully obvious to the Mariners that they weren’t going to realistically compete with the Astros and A’s in the AL West next season. Sure, a repeat performance from the core of the 2018 squad was possible, but regression is likely next year.

Athletics Outlook

Following a last place finish in 2017, the A’s caught the baseball world by storm in 2018 with 97 wins. Although their season ended on a disappointing note to the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game, the future is bright for Oakland. Matt Chapman finished the season as one of the best players in baseball. Blake Treinan was incredible as the A’s best reliever. While the starting rotation fell apart towards the end of the season, it did an admirable job keeping their team in ballgames.

Areas to address: Starting pitcher, middle infielder

When the 2018 season ended, there wasn’t one A’s pitcher who was considered a qualifying starter. Only three pitchers topped 100 innings for Oakland: Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, and Trevor Cahill. And the A’s front office led by Billy Beane may not have the financial backing to spend big dollars on a starter like Keuchel or Patrick Corbin. Instead, I’d look for Oakland to find some cheaper alternatives that offer upside. If Manaea and a few other starters within the organization progress, the starting rotation may not remain an issue in 2019. Another area for the A’s to address could likely be the middle infield as Jed Lowrie is now a free agent.

The A’s lineup should remain a quality one, even if Lowrie signs elsewhere. Like all of the teams in the AL West this offseason, the pitching staff is likely Oakland’s top priority.

Rangers Outlook

Like the Angels, the Rangers are bringing a different manager as Chris Woodward comes over from the Dodgers coaching staff. Contrary to their division rival, Texas is looking to continue its rebuild instead of competing in 2019. Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, and Elvis Andrus likely remain the core of the lineup, however, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre‘s retirement now creates a need at third base. I’d expect Jurickson Profar to get a look as the hot corner as did log 410 innings there in 2018.

Areas to address: Starting pitcher, reliever, or basically any available pitcher on the cheap

Don’t look for the Rangers as an active suitor for another hitter. Sure, they could use one or two, but I think the pitching staff is the main priority. From a long list of Texas starters in 2018, Mike Minor is the only one of note to return. The recently signed Jesse Chavez is a start, and an underrated acquisition, but it’ll take more than him to turn around this struggling pitching staff.

Unfortunately for Texas, there is little sense in offering a big contract to a pitcher like Keuchel or Corbin as they aren’t close to contention. The best course of action for the Rangers is to fill out the starting rotation and bullpen with low-risk, cheaper alternatives, and hope that a few become trade chips by July. Now is the time to see what they have on the current roster, and hope prospects come along quickly.