Astros trade rumors: Asking price for J.T. Realmuto remains high

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 04: J.T. Realmuto #11 of the Miami Marlins is unable to hold onto a foul ball in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 4, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images) /

What’s that delightful smell? Chili? Yes, a unique brand of ‘Hot Stove’ chili. Do the Astros like chili?

Like I needed a good bowl of chili last night, the Astros need a catcher. Not just any catcher, though. Preferably a high-quality catcher. You know, someone who can hit well, play above-average defense, and terrific at handling a pitching staff. Marlins’ catcher J.T. Realmuto checks all the boxes, and he is available via trade. But the asking price, well, is much higher than a good bowl of chili. One could argue that it is cost prohibitive.

Source: In trade talks, #Marlins continue to insist on Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley being part of any successful #Astros offer for J.T. Realmuto. My latest story on Hot Stove developments: https://t.co/844AJGINqf @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 16, 2018

As noted here by Jon Morosi of MLB.com, the Marlins are “insisting” for the Astros to include either Forrest Whitley or Kyle Tucker in any trade offer. The pair is also considered Houston’s top two minor league prospects. It is understandable why Miami would place such a high price on baseball’s best catcher. Probably too high, but what do you expect? At the same time, the Astros may balk at such a price. It is the age-old question in baseball: The trade-off between future value and current value.

Currently, Houston only has two catchers on the 40-man roster, Max Stassi and Chris Herrmann. Both profile more as backup catchers, although Stassi did post a .795 OPS in the season’s first half. Unfortunately for the age-27 catcher, his season essentially cratered in the second half when he posted a .485 OPS. What should the Astros look to do?

HOUSTON, TX – JULY 07: Kyle Tucker #3 of the Houston Astros singles to right field in the seventh inning for his first major league hit against the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park on July 7, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Future value vs. current value

Like I stated earlier, Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. Well, the best catcher concerning easily quantifiable metrics. One of six qualified catchers in 2018, Realmuto slashed .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs. By FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement model, otherwise known as fWAR, he finished the latest season with +4.8 wins. The next closest catcher by fWAR? Yasmani Grandal with +3.6 wins.

The lack of quality depth at catcher in today’s baseball is alarming. While dependable catchers are around the game, there is usually a trade-off. For example, veteran Jeff Mathis recently signed a contract with the Rangers. The long-time major leaguer only has a career .564 OPS as a hitter. However, he is considered one of the more well-respected catchers in the game due to his ability to handle a pitching staff and generally reliable defensive profile. Texas is banking on Mathis providing value with his defense and how he helps improve their fledgling pitching staff.

I am assuming that the Astros are already had internal discussions how they view the future value of Tucker or Whitley when compared to Realmuto. Remember that the prospects will provide at least six controllable seasons, compared to Realmuto’s two remaining years on his current contract. Honestly, if the club’s front office decides to offer a premium package for the Marlins’ All-Star catcher, I wouldn’t lambast them. With a window already open, it makes sense to maximize it with proven talent. But there are alternative options to consider this offseason.

LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 02: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks beats a throw to Yasmani Grandal #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers to score a run in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on September 2, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Free agency could fill the need

While I would enjoy watching Realmuto catch Justin Verlander on Opening Day in Tampa next March, I’d also understand if general manager Jeff Luhnow decides to go in another direction. Tucker and Whitley are considered top prospects for a reason. There is the potential for plenty of future value between the two. And, yes, I realize Tucker didn’t look good in his brief debut. Put an added emphasis on brief. Prospects are never a guarantee, but the farm system is the Astros’ lifeblood. Trade too much of that lifeblood, and a return to mediocrity likely awaits in the future.

That said, plenty of free-agent catchers are available. Grandal rejected the Dodgers’ $17.9 qualifying offer, which makes him a free-agent this year. Yes, any team that signs the age-30 catcher will have to surrender an early round draft pick. Jonathan Lucroy, once one of the best catchers not too long ago himself, is available. Wilson Ramos is another intriguing option. Matt Wieters, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos, and Martin Maldonado are also looking for a professional home in 2019.

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In the situation specifically with Grandal, the question is whether the Astros value Tucker and Whitley more than early round draft pick in 2019. As it currently stands, the former Padre and Dodger is the second-best catcher readily available. He will have plenty of suitors. If Houston decides to pass on the Realmuto sweepstakes, then Grandal is the next logical option to explore.

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What’s that delightful smell? Chili? Yes, a unique brand of ‘Hot Stove’ chili. Do the Astros like chili?

Future value vs. current value

Free agency could fill the need

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