Astros: Looking at MLBTR’s predictions for top fifty free agents

There is a lot of talent sitting in the free agent market right now. Who does MLB Trade Rumors have signing with the Astros this offseason?

Unless you’ve already made your peace with notable fan favorites like Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Evan Gattis, and Marwin Gonzalez potentially leaving the Astros, well, you may not want to read any further. If you already have come to grips on the subject, then continue to read with no restraints.

MLB Trade Rumors annually publishes an article predicting where will baseball’s top fifty free agents sign along with the basic contract terms. They also explore a player’s market value and how which teams could be involved. It is quite the informative article, because of the detail included and the general reasonable basis. There isn’t a crazy prediction piece like Bryce Harper signing with the Mets, or Manny Machado signing with the Marlins.

I’ve already reviewed the list and let’s just say that the Astros weren’t exactly predicted as the most active club in free agency. This news may concern some of you, but it isn’t entirely unexpected. Houston’s front office figures to be active in other ways, such as the trade market.

Without further ado, let’s examine the key predictions and where the dominoes fall.

East coast player heads back east

Harper isn’t the only big fish in the pond as Machado also looks to cash in this offseason. And MLBTR has the former Orioles’ star signing with another east coast club, the Phillies. The predicted contract? 13-years, $390 million (gasp!). Another deal worth $30 million per season. Like Harper’s, I’d expect Machado’s contract to include opt-outs in some shape or fashion.

For a club on the rise in the Phillies, Machado would clearly impact one of the major’s worst lineups (91 wRC+) in 2018. While the annual cost of $30 million is rather high, Philadelphia has the financial backing to support a contract of this magnitude without missing a beat. It is a risky investment to pay any player massive dollars over a thirteen-year period, though.

The primary concern for any prospective suitor is where will Machado prefer to play. The Orioles primarily used him as a third baseman in recent seasons before 2018. Following his trade to Los Angeles in July, the Dodgers continued to use Machado as their shortstop. Shortstop is clearly Machado’s preference, but the position change wasn’t considered a defensive success. I’m speculating here, but he can hold up negotiations over this preference. If so, certain teams could lose a shot at one of the best talents in the game.

Over the long haul, Machado may have a bit more value than Harper. The former’s versatility shouldn’t be ignored while Harper is likely bound to stay a corner outfielder with the potential to transition to first base role in the later years of his contract. And, no, the Astros aren’t going to jump into the Machado sweepstakes.

Saying goodbye to old friends

As we all have known for a while, the Astros are likely to lose most, if not all, of their prominent free agents. It is rather doubtful that we will see Keuchel, Gonzalez, and Morton in a Houston uniform for the 2019 season. Since MLBTR only lists out 50 players, not all Astros’ free agents are included in the list. Following the article’s lead, only their predictions for Keuchel, Gonzalez, Morton, and Martin Maldonado will be listed.

So, where does MLBTR have Houston’s free agents landing?

LHP Dallas Keuchel to the Nationals; four-years, $82 million

If the Nationals lose out in the Harper sweepstakes, they’d suddenly find themselves with money to spend towards other areas of the roster. One could argue that this is the best course for Washington. Keuchel would pencil in nicely as the Nationals’ number three starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. For an average annual salary of $20.5 million, the price isn’t outrageous, either. Despite injury issues in 2016-17, Keuchel should age well as a pitcher who doesn’t throw all that hard. If he can overcome his recent first inning woes, the Nationals’ rotation is one of the best in the NL. Numerous contenders are likely to express notable interest for his services.

RHP Charlie Morton to the Phillies; two-years, $32 million

Although Morton will forever live on in Astros’ lore as the closing pitcher during Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, it feels like Houston’s management doesn’t have the utmost confidence in his right shoulder. Remember Morton was shut down in late August with right shoulder discomfort. He only made one more start during the regular season before a long layoff in the postseason. In his one postseason start this year, the right-hander only lasted 2 1/3 innings. If the shoulder checks out fine, a team like the Phillies acquire a starter coming off his best two-year stint of his career. For $16 million per season, it is not unreasonable prediction. A return to Houston or retirement is also a possibility.

UTIL Marwin Gonzalez to the Twins; four-years, $36 million

One of the key holdovers from dark days of the Astros’ infamous rebuild, Gonzalez will likely find a home a super-utility player. By all appearances, it doesn’t seem like Houston is intent on resigning Gonzalez. Any team that signs him will likely do so for his versatility all over the field. He did have his career season one year too early as he finished the 2017 season with a 144 wRC+. To his defense, though, he did finish the second half of the 2018 season with a 134 wRC+. The predicted contract from MLBTR makes sense, especially at $9 million per season. Incidentally, he may have the most suitors of any Astros’ free agent this year.

C Martin Maldonado to the Rockies; two-years, $8 million

Not known for his offensive capabilities, Maldonado is valued for his ability to work with pitchers, throwing out would-be base stealers, and pitch framing. One of the key acquisitions at the trade deadline for Houston, Maldonado helped stabilize a position in need. While Max Stassi started the season on a tear, he was relegated to a backup by August. Key contributor from the 2017 championship squad, Brian McCann, was injured most of the season. The Rockies need help at catcher, much like the Astros. He could return to Houston if management fails to acquire another catcher elsewhere.

New additions at key positions

As I first mentioned earlier in the post, the Astros aren’t expected as the most active club in free agency. That said, Houston is predicted as signing two players that fill in at positions of need.

C Wilson Ramos signs for three-years, $36 million

There isn’t a position on the Astros that needs more attention than catcher. Yes, I realize the starting rotation isn’t in great shape right now, but it is a close second. At least the Astros have depth on the pitching staff. Not the case with catcher, though. Despite a torn ACL prior to the conclusion of the 2016 season, Ramos rebounded in 2018. The age-31 catcher hit .306/.358/.487 with 15 home runs and a 131 wRC+ for the Rays and Phillies this year. Not a prolific catcher last year in terms of pitch framing, Ramos would bring a quality bat to a position that was the weakest in the lineup. The chance to DH at times to rest his body should also interest the catcher. As noted by MLBTR, look for multiple contenders to talk with him this offseason, including the Red Sox, A’s, and Dodgers.

LHP Zach Britton signs for three-years, $33 million

If I had a dime for every time I’ve written about Britton on this blog, well, I still I wouldn’t have enough to retire. Maybe a number one Whataburger? Yeah, probably. My money issues aside, the left-hander would slide right into the Astros’ bullpen just fine. Once considered one of the best closers in baseball, his value took a hit thanks to various injuries over the past two seasons. In fact, he didn’t make 2018 debut until mid-June.

The Yankees would acquire him before the trade deadline, and he did well enough with a 3.10 ERA and 4.22 FIP on the season. There is a feeling that he has yet to fully rebound, which makes the predicted three-year pact with an annual value of $11 million an intriguing one. Like Ramos, multiple contenders will likely express interest.