Astros: Three premium trade chips this offseason

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ANAHEIM, CA – JULY 21: Martin Maldonado #12 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim looks on as Kyle Tucker #3 of the Houston Astros scores on a sacrifice fly by Yuli Gurriel #10 of the Houston Astros in the third inning of the game at Angel Stadium on July 21, 2018 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Minor league prospects are the lifeblood of a major league organization. But there are times to “cash in” those chips for proven major league talent.

Looking ahead, the Astros are approaching a crossroads. Not only does the front office have to plan for the 2019 season, their course of action this winter will impact future seasons. Based on the available assets on hand, Houston is likely a buyer this offseason.

General manager Jeff Luhnow has proved in the past that he isn’t afraid to trade away prospects to address the major league roster. His trade a few offseason ago for Evan Gattis and James Hoyt stands out along with the Carlos Gomez deal. Mike Fiers was the saving grace of that deal. In return, the Astros parted ways players on the upswing in Mike Foltynewicz and Josh Hader.

So, who are the top three trade chips this offseason for Houston?

Trade Chip #1: Kyle Tucker

There is no doubt that the Astros have high hopes for the age-21 outfielder. Although the Pacific League is known for inflating a hitter’s numbers, a 155 wRC+ is still noting to sneeze at for a young prospect.

2018 Minor League Numbers: .332/.400/.590, 24 HR, 93 RBI, 10.3% BB%, 18.1% K%, 155 wRC+

Yes, I do realize that Tucker’s major league debut was less-than-stellar, but he was the unluckiest hitter based on batted ball data. And if I see one more comment how he is already, I’m going to internally scream.

That said, I’d imagine the Astros, along with other teams, are aware of Tucker’s unlucky showing in 2018. I’d doubt it takes any luster off his prospect star, which could attract rebuilding clubs looking to acquire more young talent. The Marlins are an automatic fit based on the continued trade rumors surrounding All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto. Oh, look, the Astros have a need at catcher. A potential match, right?

For Houston, the key question surrounding Tucker is whether they feel that he would provide more value over next half decade or so than an established veteran catcher or starting pitcher?

MIAMI, FL – JULY 09: Yordan Alvarez #43 of the Houston Astros and the World Team slides in safely past Zack Collins #8 of the Chicago White Sox and the U.S. Team during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

Trade Chip #2: Yordan Alvarez

Rated as the club’s third-best prospect by MLB Pipeline, Yordan Alvarez is another potential trade chip. Much like Tucker, his long-term status with the Astros partially hinges on whether the front office feels how much value they can receive from him in the future versus a proven commodity.

2018 Minor League Numbers: .293/.369/.534, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 11.1% BB%, 24.3% K%, 139 wRC+

Across two minor league levels in 2018, Alvarez established himself as one of the club’s best minor league prospects. Although he is generally regarded as a better left fielder than first baseman, the age-21 hitter has a bright future ahead of him.

Considered a Top 100 prospect in baseball, Alvarez has the upside to headline a deal for a catcher or starting pitcher. While Tucker is considered the club’s top position prospect, Alvarez cannot be far behind. It wouldn’t shock me to see another team prioritize the latter over the former in trade negotiations. Two front offices may view two prospects completely different as prospect evaluation isn’t an exact science.

One concern about Alvarez is his future position. Like I mentioned earlier, there are conflicting thoughts if he is better in left field or first base. He could also end up as a designated hitter one day if his career progresses at the major league level. But I can see a team in the middle of a rebuild taking a chance on his power and letting him play at the major league level sooner than the Astros. Also remember that Tyler White, J.D. Davis, Tony Kemp, and Tucker are all ahead of Alvarez in either first base or left field.

All in all, Alvarez is one of the more enticing prospects in Houston’s farm system. While he may not possess the exact upside as Tucker, the Cuban slugger’s potential is worth noting.

Trade Chip #3: J.B. Bukauskas

A former first round pick in 2017, J.B. Bukauskas is one of the more intriguing arms in the Astros’ system. Across five different affiliates this year, the University of North Carolina product threw well although a back injury following a car wreck sidelined his season for a while.

2018 Minor League Numbers: 59 IP, 2.14 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 10.1% BB%, 30.0% K%

There are questions whether the right-hander can stick as a long-term starter. Some scouting reports view his ceiling as a late-inning reliever, possibly a closer. However, his mid-nineties fastball along with a potent slider remains an effective combination. If he can develop his changeup further, then his chances to stick as a starter likely increases. For a team like the Astros, who need starters this season and beyond, his development in 2019 is something to watch. That said, his value still rates as quite high, so he could be a key part of any potential trade negotiations.

Currently the Astros’ eighth-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, Bukauskas is likely to draw plenty of interest in trade negotiations. He is presently behind Forrest Whitley, Josh James, Cionel Perez, and Corbin Martin in MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings. It is doubtful that the Astros entertain trading Whitley and James at the moment. Perez, Martin, and Bukauskas are three pitchers to watch if the front office enters serious trade talks.

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At this time, I view Bukauskas as a potential key piece in any deal for another catcher or starting pitcher. The Astros aren’t going to part ways with Whitley any time soon, and the same can be said for a few other pitching prospects. Luhnow and his front office probably feels the same way about the right-hander. But to acquire talent, you’d also have to part ways with talent. If the Astros don’t want to trade Whitley or James, then that is fine. However, someone has to be made available, and that someone could be Bukauskas.

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