Astros: Five trade targets to consider this offseason

The Astros will likely be an active player in this year’s offseason. With a deep farm system at its disposal, the club has the assets to entice other teams in trade talks.

Ever since Houston’s sudden resurgence in 2015, there has been a debate about whether or not the front office should cash in its best prospects for proven talent. There are intriguing cases for both approaches. But if the Astros are serious about acquiring external talent to return to the Fall Classic in 2019, then they must part with talent in the form of prospects.

The club’s most glaring weakness heading into the offseason is the catcher position. Outside of Max Stassi and Chris Herrmann, the Astros have no other proven major league catchers. Minor league catcher Garrett Stubbs is Houston’s top prospect at the position, but it is unreasonable to expect for him to be ready for the full-time gig in 2019.

Another area of concern for the Astros is the starting rotation. Although the 2018 staff was one of the best starting units in baseball, there is a good chance that sixty percent of the rotation is gone. Lance McCullers Jr. will likely return to the staff in 2020 once fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. However, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton are free-agents and likely pitching elsewhere in 2019. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are an excellent one-two punch, but the club also has to consider the duo’s long-term status as both are scheduled to hit free agency next year.

All of that said, here are five trade targets for the Astros to consider. Some are more obvious than others.

Trade Target #2: C Salvador Perez

Everyone has naturally linked the Astros to J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins for quite some time. And it still makes sense. But if Realmuto is traded elsewhere or stays in Miami, general manager Jeff Luhnow and his front office ought to have a contingency plan: Enter Salvador Perez of the Royals.

Yes, I know that Perez isn’t a realistic solution for Houston, because the Royals aren’t likely to trade him in the first place. While Kansas City is in the beginning stages of a rebuild, the club seems intent on keeping Perez around. But in the case they do decide to trade their long-time catcher, the Astros are a team that ought to enter the fray.

2018 stats: .235/.274/.439, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 3.1% BB%, 19.9% K%, 89 wRC+

Known as a hitter who doesn’t walk much, Perez still provides plenty of power in the lineup. Roughly a league-average hitter for most of his career, he would fulfill a need on the Astros’ roster. Although Perez is a respected catcher around, the advanced catcher metrics do not view so favorably. But there is more to catching than pitch framing numbers as the position requires syncing well with the pitching staff. Then there is the close relationship between him and Jose Altuve to consider.

Unfortunately, I am not sure if Perez is a realistic trade target this offseason. It is clear that the Royals are rebuilding for the future, which makes keeping a 28-year old catcher with a bit of an injury history around perplexing. But Kansas City was trying to resign veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer last offseason, which isn’t something a club does at the start of the rebuild.

Trade Target #3: 1B Paul Goldschmidt

Like Paxton and Perez, Paul Goldschmidt is another player whose future with his current club likely depends on its future direction. Like I detailed not too long ago, the Astros should consider trading for Goldschmidt if he is made available by the Diamondbacks.

On paper, the Texas State product would fit in nicely on the roster. Not only would he provide a potent bat to the lineup, but he would also take over first base duties from Yuli Gurriel. If so, Gurriel would then transition to more of a utility role in the infield, similar to Marwin Gonzalez.

2018 stats: .290/.389/.533, 33 HR, 83 RBI, 13.0% BB%, 25.1% K%, 145 wRC+

Offensively, Goldschmidt would likely catapult Houston’s lineup to very top of the leaderboards. Opposing pitching staffs would have to face some combination of him, Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman atop the lineup.

However, Goldschmidt is entering his age-31 season and he is scheduled to hit free agency next year. The Diamondbacks exercised the $14.5 million club option on his contract as the offseason started a few weeks ago. The main concern has to be the trade package needed to sway Arizona. Second, any team that acquires the first baseman will have to ponder whether to sign him to a long-term contract. Goldschmidt hasn’t shown much in terms of slowing down, but it is risky to invest a lot in money and prospects for a first baseman on the other side of 30-years old.

Even if the Astros only have his services for one season, the thought of pairing Goldschmidt in this lineup while Verlander and Cole are under contract is tempting.

Trade Target #4: RHP Carlos Carrasco

One of more infuriating rumors from this offseason has came from the Indians. Although the club currently plays in the worst division, Buster Olney of ESPN reported that Cleveland is willing to listen on trade offers for some of their best players not named Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez.

Thanks to “market constraints”, the Indians are looking to retool a bit. I guess there is some merit to such an action, but the situation reeks of cheap ownership. That said, the Astros should look into acquiring one of Cleveland’s pitchers. Corey Kluber is an obvious one, but the price for him in terms of prospect is likely quite high. Instead, Houston should take a long look at right-hander Carlos Carrasco.

2018 stats: 192 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 46.8% GB%, 29.5% K%, 5.5% BB%

Once I looked at his stats though, I am pretty sure Carrasco won’t come cheap for any team. The 31-year old has been one of the majors most underrated starters in recent years. He is also under club control for a reasonable price through 2021. If you’re a fan of a contending club, like the Astros, you should hope that your front office is willing to trade for Carrasco. The fact that the Indians are even thinking about trading him at this point infuriates the baseball fan in me even more.

Like Paxton, the prospect package for Carrasco won’t be light. At the same time, I am not sure if the Astros would part ways with Whitley or Tucker for him. Probably not, but trade negotiations can always take an unexpected turn. Yordan Alvarez or J.B. Bukauskas are the likely starting point in any negotiation. Houston’s starting rotation does require some stability beyond 2019, and acquiring Carrasco would be a fine place to start.

Trade Target #5: OF Nick Castellanos

So, the Astros were intent on acquiring another outfielder during the summer, even though it ultimately didn’t work out. The nixed deal for Bryce Harper attracted most of the attention over the weekend. But there were other outfielders linked to the Astros, such as Nick Castellanos.

The Tigers are in the middle of the rebuild, which makes sense why they would explore trading the age-26 outfielder. Throw in the fact that Castellanos is only under club control through 2019 and Detroit’s motivation becomes even clearer.

2018 stats: .298/.354/.500, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 7.2% BB%, 22.3% K%, 130 wRC+

A fine hitter in his own regard, Castellanos was primarily utilized as a right fielder in 2018. Prior to 2018, he also spent quite a bit of time as a third baseman. However, the advanced defensive metrics did not particularly like him in either position as he consistently ran a negative DRS and UZR. Castellanos appears to be a prime candidate for a DH role in Detroit or another AL club.

With only one year of club control remaining, the Astros appear to be an ideal fit for Castellanos. For one, Houston may not want another player blocking prospects like Tucker or Alvarez. The current Tiger would likely play in left field or as a DH with Houston. In terms of prospects, a potential trade shouldn’t be all that substantial. While the Tigers would like to recoup some value, most clubs aren’t going to part ways with multiple top prospects for a corner outfielder or DH with only one year of club control.