Astros: Examining the current baseball landscape this offseason

The offseason is starting to simmer, which is a good thing for baseball.

For the Astros, the conclusion of the World Series didn’t carry the same meaning as it did one year ago. The 108-win Red Sox, who bested the 103-win Houston in the ALCS, are the 2018 World Series champions. Good for them. Their defeat by the hands of the current champions will sting for a while.

Regardless of the sting from defeat, general manager/president of baseball operations, Jeff Luhnow, and his staff have some work to do this offseason. What is left of his staff, anyway. On a side note, I do like the reported hiring of Sarah Gelles from the Orioles. It is always encouraging to see women join the higher-rankings of a baseball team’s front office.

Decisions about free agents, arbitration, and trades will be made to either widespread praise, loads of criticism, or somewhere in between. The Astros can only control what they can control. That said, there is a benefit to surveying the current landscape of baseball and how it could possibly affect the hierarchy in the game.

AL East

Boston Red Sox

Fresh off a World Series title, the Red Sox finds themselves in a great position to compete next season. There is little reason to expect much of a drop-off from this year’s 108-win squad. As the Astros proved this year, though, it is incredibly difficult to repeat. Questions about how well Chris Sale holds up an entire season will inevitably be asked. Look for more roster refinement than any massive changes, although ownership has the deep pocketbooks to sign a significant free agent if the mood strikes them. The free agency of Craig Kimbrel, Steve Pearce, and Nathan Eovaldi are something to watch.

New York Yankees

A 100-win season is nothing to sneeze at in baseball. Unfortunately for the Yankees, they ran into the buzz saw known as the Red Sox in this year’s ALDS. Look for general manager Brian Cashman to make some moves to help New York stay close to Boston in the standings. You can’t talk about the Yankees’ offseason plans without bringing up Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Even without those two stars, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton is a heck of a foundation for a lineup. Also, they could be in the market for another starting pitcher. As much as it pains me to type this sentence, Dallas Keuchel could be an option as New York looks to move on from Sonny Gray. Free-agent Patrick Corbin is another option along with Corey Kluber if the Indians decide to trade.

Tampa Bay Rays

If it wasn’t for a terrible 4-13 start, the 90-win Rays may have been a viable threat to the A’s for the second AL Wild Card spot down the stretch. Acquiring Tommy Pham in-season from the Cardinals was a strong move by a team not expected to have the season it did. Injuries to the pitching staff didn’t do themselves any favors. There is a bit of money to spend down in Tampa but look for more under-the-radar moves than anything else. If a few young pitchers (Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon) return from the DL as 2019 progresses, this team could be a factor in the Wild Card race.

Toronto Blue Jays

A new manager with plenty of new faces on the way. The favorite storyline for the Blue Jays will be the eventual debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2019. He should’ve made his debut this past season, but service time manipulation will remain steadfast in baseball until the CBA addresses it. Like this past trade deadline, Toronto could be sellers once again in another likely rebuilding year. That said, Toronto does have plenty of young talent in the minors, so they could be a club to watch in 2020 and 2021.

Baltimore Orioles

Not only did the Orioles pay Chris Davis $17 million in base salary for a .168/.243/.296 slash line over 522 plate appearances, they also had the worst record (47-115) in baseball by far. The $42 million of deferred money owed Davis following his contract’s conclusion doesn’t help matters. Stuck in the always-competitive AL East with the Red Sox and Yankees, Baltimore has a massive mountain to climb. If there is a silver lining, the Orioles do seem to realize that a rebuild is warranted.

AL Central

Cleveland Indians

It is fair to wonder how good the Indians would be in another division. The AL Central was the worst division in baseball by a large margin. That said, Cleveland did win 91 games along with a third-straight division title. That’s not easy to do, no matter the competition. They also have two of the game’s best superstars in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The starting rotation ought to have another strong season if the ownership’s mandate to trade expensive players doesn’t come to fruition. The fans, by the way, should be furious at the Dolans if a “quasi” fire sale does take place. There are questions about the bullpen with Andrew Miller‘s free agency, but the in-season acquisition for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber should help negate the void.

Minnesota Twins

Following a surprising run to the AL Wild Card game in 2017, the Twins were a potential Wild Card team in 2018. Maybe even a dark horse contender for the AL Central? Unfortunately for Minnesota, the acquisitions of Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, and Lance Lynn didn’t pan out. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano regressed mightily from what they did in 2017. Next year could also be the first without Joe Mauer as his contract expired this year. There is still potential on this Twins’ roster along with a fresh voice in new manager Rocco Baldelli, but next year will help determine the long-term course.

Detroit Tigers

Fresh off a fire sale in the summer of 2017, the Tigers finished the 2018 season near where everyone expected with a 64-98 record. A surprisingly solid start to the season eventually eroded, however. Long-term ownership concerns abound as the rebuilding process will take some time. Miguel Cabrera is the majority of the payroll now, but he remains virtually untradeable. The “Rally Goose” was a cool story, though.

Chicago White Sox

One of three rebuilding clubs in the AL Central, the White Sox have some intriguing players for the future. Yoan Moncada has the talent to be a cornerstone in the South Side. Losing promising starter Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery doesn’t help the rebuild (or my fantasy team). Improvement across the board is needed, but the potential is slowly making its way to the major league level. Look for 2019 to be another footnote in the rebuild, even if they (unlikely) sign Harper or Machado.

Kansas City Royals

Outside of Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield and a 15-13 record in September, the Royals didn’t have much going for themselves in 2018. Another AL Central team in the middle of a rebuild. There are promising players in their system who figure to be part of the next Royals’ core. At the same time, it is hard to envision Kansas City making a remarkable improvement like the A’s did in 2018. Perez, a franchise mainstay, could bring back a few quality prospects in a trade.

AL West

Houston Astros

Despite a top-three starting rotation in 2018, the club’s 2019 unit is shaping to look quite different. Keuchel and Charlie Morton are likely gone, and Lance McCullers Jr. is out next year following Tommy John surgery. Another starter along with a new catcher is high on the priority list. Lots of talent remain for an extended window, but the upcoming free agency of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole next year puts 2019 in the limelight. Acquiring Gray from the Yankees is the type of move that this franchise now thrives on, and one they should consider.

Los Angeles Angels

Shohei Ohtani will play in 2019, albeit exclusively as a hitter. Mike Trout is still Mike Trout, the best position player in baseball. Starting rotation remains the Angels’ most glaring weakness. A division foe in Keuchel could help stabilize the front end of the rotation until Ohtani returns to pitching in 2020. However, the clock is ticking as Trout is a free-agent following the 2020 season, so the Angels need to succeed soon. Another potential storyline: How much longer do the Angels play Albert Pujols?

Oakland Athletics

One of the biggest surprises in 2018, the A’s have plenty of young talent throughout the roster. Matt Chapman is one of the best overall players in the game. Blake Treinen led a dominant bullpen into the postseason. Like the Angels, Oakland’s starting rotation is the weak link. Don’t look for them to spend too much in the offseason, but this is a club that squeezes value out of unexpected places. Billy Beane and his front office could also be active in the trade market if they find something of value.

Texas Rangers

Another rebuilding club in the AL. Adrian Beltre is a free agent, but he could be back if he likes the direction of the franchise. Joey Gallo had an encouraging 2018 campaign along with Rougned Odor. Texas can likely squeeze some value out of the lineup, but the pitching staff remains the weak link. On a side note, have you noticed how difficult it is to build a strong pitching staff?

Seattle Mariners

Good, but not good enough in a stack AL. A possible rebuilding club as the offseason kicks into full gear with the trade of Mike Zunino to the Rays. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and Jean Segura can also bring back multiple quality prospects to help prop up one of the worst systems in baseball. Incidentally, they should retain All-Star outfielder Mitch Haniger, who took off in 2018. Remember that Seattle does have a few years of club control remaining, so he is someone general manager Jerry Dipoto can build around.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Thanks to strong seasons from young stars like Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Mike Foltynewicz, the Braves found themselves as a surprise contender in the NL East. It also helped that a lackluster season from the Nationals occurred as Atlanta was able to come away with their first division title since 2013. Definitely in the market for an upgrade in the starting rotation and catcher. Keuchel and Corbin are the two big names to watch, but they could also come away with a lesser name. Foundation is there for another potential run in 2019.

Philadelphia Phillies

Thanks to shedding plenty of financial commitment in recent years, the Phillies have plenty of money to spend. They could sign Harper and Machado right now and have money left over to spend in 2019. The pitching staff was quite reliable last season, but the offense needs some work. Again, Harper and Machado would solve part of their issues in the lineup. The pitching staff led by Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta is a solid start.

Washington Nationals

Even if Harper leaves Washington D.C., there are still loads of talent on the roster. And he may as he reportedly rejected a $300 million contract from the Nationals. If so, Max Scherzer along with Stephen Strasburg remains an excellent one-two punch in the rotation. Juan Soto and Victor Robles are two young cornerstones to build around. Adam Eaton is under contract at a team-friendly rate. If Harper is no longer around, the Nationals could be active in the free agent market. Another starter wouldn’t hurt along with some relief help in that scenario.

New York Mets

A former agent now as the general manager, the Mets will only go as far as the Wilpons let them. Most of the time, they don’t go very far. When healthy, there isn’t a stronger one-two punch in a rotation than Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Need more production from a lineup that has seen better days, especially since Yoenis Cespedes‘ injuries have derailed him in recent years.

Miami Marlins

The rebuild continues as Miami field offers for All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto. Besides a possibly new logo and color scheme (huge improvement), the Marlins aren’t building for 2019. There is lots of young talent though, so this team should be fun to watch for that one reason.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Thanks to numerous trades in the past few years, the Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has lost some luster. Like a lot of teams, the question will come down to the pitching staff. If Yu Darvish rebounds in 2019, he would lead a staff that also has Jose Quintana. The lineup should be fine, especially if Kris Bryant recovers from an injury-filled 2018 season. Still, the favorite in the NL Central going forward, but last year’s division winner in Milwaukee will keep this Chicago squad on its toes.

Milwaukee Brewers

There wasn’t a team that did a better job last offseason than the Brewers. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain were instrumental in Milwaukee’s’ impressive postseason run. Same praise applies to the bullpen. Like so many teams, the starting rotation remains a point of concern. They could be in the market for another starter, albeit I don’t expect much spending.

St. Louis Cardinals

Three years in a row that the Cardinals have finished behind the Cubs in the standings. It’s also been three years since St. Louis have last qualified for the postseason. They figure to be active in free agency as the club looks for a franchise-altering player after missing out on Stanton last year. Harper and Machado figure to be atop the wish list, but payroll constraints could play a factor. Free-agent Josh Donaldson is another name to watch.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates confuse me quite a bit. Following the Cole trade last winter, a rebuilding transition looked imminent. However, Pittsburgh would eventually trade three well-regarded prospects for right-handed starter Chris Archer last summer. It was a strange acquisition for a team that didn’t make a successful postseason push. Another strange transition year likely await.

Cincinnati Reds

Fresh off their fifth-consecutive losing season, the Reds are a team that cannot afford to let the offseason go by without change. The pitching staff, in particular, needs some attention following a 4.65 ERA/4.68 FIP showing in 2018. There is young talent inching closer to the majors, though. And to celebrate 150 years of baseball in Cincinnati, we’ll likely see some pretty cool throwbacks. Fifteen to be exact. Hint: I like throwbacks.