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Astros have plenty of decisions to make this offseason
In light of an earlier-than-planned departure from the postseason, the Astros still have a slew of pressing questions to answer during the offseason. These items weren’t going away, championship or not.
When the Astros first entered their latest rebuilding attempt earlier in the decade, we all knew that the climb to contention and respectability was a difficult road to traverse. The subsequent contending seasons, 2015-18, were well worth the price. The cherry on top was the 2017 championship. Banners fly forever, right?
However, the heavy lifting is not finished, especially with this particular offseason on the horizon. The next couple of winters will have a lasting effect on the Astros. Although the front office has the benefit of a World Series title, their actions in the coming months will help determine if another title is in Houston’s immediate future.
Whether we, the fans, like it or not, there are decisions to make in the offseason that could alter the franchise’s course in subsequent years. These include retaining certain players while allowing others to leave, extensions, possible trades, and the pursuit of free agents. The Astros are likely to entertain all of these possibilities in preparation of the 2019 season. Ultimately, the success of a club lies with the players on the field. At the same time, the front office influences the team’s course by their decisions. The Astros’ front office have a prime opportunity to help determine the next course.
The conundrum of the starting rotation
Presently, Houston’s starting rotation is Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and a bunch of unknowns. The free agency of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton throws one of the best rotations in club history into rough waters. Add Lance McCullers‘ elbow issues and we have a situation where sixty percent of the Astros’ rotation may not be back in 2019. That’s not, um, optimal. For as much as I like Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock, Forrest Whitley, Josh James, and company, the front office may need to secure at least one more proven starting pitcher from the open market or via trade. Another Cole-like trade would be a best-case scenario.
At this point, though, I’d put the odds of Keuchel returning around 20%. For Morton, I’d give 60-70%. The coming weeks will give the Astros an idea on how both pitchers wish to utilize their leverage. Specifically in Keuchel’s case, he is searching for his large payday, which he deserves. But the Astros don’t have to be the team to give it to him.
Here is one name I would to throw out there for consideration: Nathan Eovaldi, who is an Alvin, Texas native. Not only does he have the stuff (see: 2018 ALCS), he would solidify the rotation behind Verlander and Cole while Houston can ease in the likes of Whitley and James. Will it happen? Probably not as I’d look for Boston to throw plenty of cash his way, but he is worth the consideration.
Refining the position player side of the roster
Can the Astros bring back Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado, and Evan Gattis? Yes, they definitely could. Should they? That’s the crux of the issue. Based on my initial impressions, the front office seems ready to try something else. Although they contributed greatly to a World Series run last year, I don’t envision McCann and Gattis being back. Catcher JT Realmuto of the Marlins will likely be the favorite of offseason speculation surrounding the Astros.
Out of all Houston’s position players entering free agency, I could see Gonzalez and Maldonado returning under the right circumstances. It also depends on last year’s free agent market for non-stars and if that trend carries over into this offseason. The emergence of Tony Kemp and Tyler White gives the team more flexibility than it did even one year ago. How about AJ Reed, who has continued to perform well in Triple-A the past two seasons?
Houston also could benefit from a left-handed bat that can play first and DH. Again, Reed comes to mind. Or how about another proven right-handed bat (um, hello, Paul Goldschmidt) to help protect the “core four”? Although Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa were clearly not at full strength for part of the regular season and the entire postseason, it felt like the Astros were one hitter short all season long. I am also quite curious to see if Yuli Gurriel bounces back in 2019, but it wouldn’t hurt to explore a few external options.
Talking about the “core four”, I wouldn’t mind to see renewed efforts on a contract extension for George Springer. Same goes for Alex Bregman. I would say the same for Correa, but we already familiar with his stance on the issue. At this point, though, it is rather doubtful that the Astros are able to lock up any of three on a contract extension. It could happen, sure, but I have my concerns.
Promote from within or trade for established help
Why do I have a feeling that Kyle Tucker is going to be in the center of any trade debate this offseason? Even though Tucker played in just 28 games, there are sections of the fanbase clamoring for the age-21 outfielder to be traded, preferably for a catcher like Realmuto. There are two quick points that I’d like to make on the subject: 1) Quit using 28 sporadic games as a measuring stick for Tucker’s success. Sure, he looked a bit unsure of his abilities during those 28 games, but that doesn’t automatically erase his impressive minor league numbers. 2) While I think that the Astros should keep Tucker, I understand the viewpoint that he is a prospect who could headline a trade package for a premium talent. If the situation is right, I’d say pursue that Luhnow and the front office need to pursue the opportunity.
If the Astros decide to look elsewhere for help at catcher, Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos are fine places to start. Jonathan Lucroy is an interesting buy-low option. There is also Matt Wieters. But outside of a trade for Realmuto, the options for replacement catchers remain more a short-term fix than a long-term solution.
Besides starting pitcher and catcher, there isn’t a position in dire need of attention. Like I mentioned in the previous slide, another bat in the middle of the lineup would be nice. It is also a luxury at this point, in my opinion. Besides Tucker, Derek Fisher and Myles Straw have a chance to patrol left field in 2019. Kemp and Gurriel could fulfill more of a utility role on the roster like Gonzalez did if he leaves. Manager AJ Hinch prefers roster flexibility, so there probably won’t be a true DH on the roster. The DH role is bound to look more like a revolving door than ever before. This offseason also raises the question of Reed’s future with Houston.
How to handle the bevy of arms in the bullpen
Out of all the relievers with the club, only Tony Sipp is a free agent. Will Harris does have a club option for $5.5 million, which isn’t a guarantee to be exercised with this front office. A left-handed reliever figures to be high on the wish list. If Houston is interested in a bounce-back candidate, Zach Britton or Andrew Miller are intriguing names. Justin Wilson is another southpaw to consider for the ‘pen. Bringing back Sipp also remains an option. Left-handers Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez are two internal candidates with potential.
In terms of right-handed relievers, I believe that the Astros are actually fine in this area. The primary question is who’ll be on the roster next season. Spring training will help determine the bullpen construction, but don’t forget that numerous arms fell out of favor towards the postseason. The futures of McHugh and Peacock will also play a role in bullpen decisions. I am also curious to see if Chris Devenski, Hector Rondon, and Joe Smith can return to form in 2019.
Looking ahead to the Astros’ 2019 starting rotation. dark. Next
For a contending team, there are still a lot of decisions to make. Unlike last offseason when the Astros basically ran it back, this year may have its fair share of changes. If done correctly, Houston could be looking at another strong run into the postseason next year. The window remains open for now, but the decisions starting this winter will help determine when it closes.