Red Sox at Astros: ALCS Game 4 Preview

The Red Sox executed quite well in Game 3. The Astros simply did not. Let’s see what happens in Game 4.

Charlie Morton, the Astros‘ Game 4 starter, last threw a pitch in a major league game on September 30th in Baltimore. That was 17 days ago. In fact, Morton has only faced 14 major league batters since September 23rd against the Angels. To say that the age-34 starter hasn’t seen much game action would be an understatement.

That said, the Astros are rolling with a pitcher in Game 4 who posted a 3.13 ERA and 3.59 FIP over 167 innings. No, I do not think cheating was involved with Morton’s success the past two seasons. And, yes, Houston’s season likely hangs in the balance.

So, what do the Astros do about the suddenly anemic offense? There isn’t an easy answer. Here are just a few suggestions/thoughts that I’d came up with as Game 3 imploded. Warning: Some of the following may be bad suggestions/thoughts.

• Switch Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman in the lineup. Force the Red Sox to pitch to Bregman, who has been Houston’s best hitter in 2018.
• If Altuve can play second base, would you insert Evan Gattis or Tyler White as the DH? Gattis didn’t perform well at Minute Maid Park in 2018 (76 wRC+) compared to the road (119 wRC+), but he has a track record of showing up in key games. See: 2017 ALCS. We all know how White has performed since late July, so I have a feeling he will be the DH if Altuve can cover second.
• Move George Springer from the leadoff role to protect Bregman?
• Move Carlos Correa up in the order? Move Yuli Gurriel down? At a certain point, the Astros need production from a hitter other than Springer, Bregman, and Altuve.

Honestly, I don’t know what moves would actually help the lineup. Sometimes teams go into slumps, even at inopportune moments. That’s baseball for you.

Here is how the Astros lineup actually looks prior to Game 4.

3B Alex Bregman

CF George Springer

DH Jose Altuve

2B Marwin Gonzalez

1B Yuli Gurriel

RF Josh Reddick

SS Carlos Correa

C Martin Maldonado

LF Tony Kemp

Some notable adjustments were made for Game 4. Specifically, Bregman takes over in the leadoff spot, which should prevent the Red Sox from walking him right from the start. If they choose to do so, then Springer will be waiting for them. Gonzalez moves up as the clean up hitter while Gurriel drops to fifth in the order. The rest of the lineup is relatively the same, except with Maldonado as the starting catcher instead of Brian McCann in Game 3. Kemp gets another start in left field.

And here is the Red Sox lineup, which has done an overall better job than Houston’s in the ALCS.

RF Mookie Betts

LF Andrew Benintendi

DH J.D. Martinez

SS Xander Bogaerts

3B Rafael Devers

1B Steve Pearce

2B Brock Holt

C Christian Vazquez

CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

Besides a change or two, the Red Sox lineup looks nearly the same as preceding games. Rick Porcello, a former AL Cy Young winner a few years ago, gets the nod for Boston. A capable pitcher in his own right, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle him and the bullpen. Porcello was used in relief in Game 2, but it is possible that fellow starter, David Price, may emerge in late innings if the Red Sox require his services.

Game 4, for all intents and purposes, is basically a must-win for the Astros. While it wouldn’t be unheard of a team to come back from a 3-1 deficit with two of the next three games on the road (see: 2016 World Series), the odds would be against Houston. A tied series at two games apiece is the preferred option right now.