Questions surrounding the Astros as the ALDS approaches
The Astros finish off the 2018 regular season in Baltimore before heading home to prepare for the Indians in the upcoming ALDS. But there are legit questions about the defending champion.
The postseason in baseball, more or less, is a crapshoot decided by a combination of skill, luck, and optimal circumstances. Unlike the playoff systems in the NBA or NFL most of the time, the baseball postseason doesn’t always crown the best team in the sport. Even the best team has questions marks during the postseason. The Astros aren’t excluded from this list.
Surrounding all postseason-bound teams are various questions about the state of their rosters. Who’ll start? How about the bullpen, especially in light of today’s usage? Potential opponents and favorable matchups? Injury concerns and quality depth? Depending on the venue, a day or night game may determine the winner of a series. All are valid questions and concerns as ten teams aim for a shot at a World Series title.
As we all know, the Astros will play the Indians in the ALDS. But Houston does have questions to answer regardless of their opponent. If the team has a single misstep in this process alone, it could mean lower chances for another World Series title.
Question #1: How does the dust settle for the postseason bullpen?
Barring a sudden change of heart, the Astros are likely to carry seven-to-eight relievers in the bullpen. At this point, it isn’t abundantly clear whether team management wants to carry an additional catcher, outfielder, or pitcher on the ALDS roster. Without too much effort though, I’ll assume that Roberto Osuna, Hector Rondon, Ryan Pressly, Tony Sipp, Collin McHugh, and Joe Smith earn a spot on the postseason roster. That’s six relievers right there. The remaining one-to-two spots are not easy decisions to make.
That said, there are two names I believe that should be in the mix: Lance McCullers and Josh James. We’re all familiar with McCullers’ exploits out of the bullpen last year (insert 24 straight curveballs comment), and James provided key depth at the right time to the pitching staff. Also, don’t forget Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris.
While it is clear that not all three pitchers will make the postseason roster at this juncture, McCullers has only made one relief appearance this season. I am curious to see how he does in his next appearance, if he makes another one, which may sway the decision based on the outcome. And James, despite the quality results, is not a shoe-in for the postseason roster. If I had to choose right now, I would bet that either James or Peacock gets the nod if there is an eighth spot in the postseason bullpen. The last spot, in my opinion, likely goes to McCullers.
Question #2: The cumulative health of the roster?
There is little doubt that the Astros are in injury prevention mode right now. There is no reason to push the pitching staff to the max and play the position players more than required to stay sharp. But the health of Carlos Correa and Charlie Morton is a different beast, and one of the important questions surrounding the Astros.
Since his return on August 10th, Correa has slashed a .176/.257/.224 batting line with just one home run and a 36 wRC+. That’s not good under any circumstances. For context, Correa had a .268/.352/.480 slash line through June 25th. It is quite clear that the back is still an issue for the Astros’ star shortstop. Hoping that additional rest would help Correa for the postseason, team management kept the age-24 slugger on the bench for the weekend in Toronto. The remaining games against Baltimore will go a long way in the decision process.
Then there is Morton, who has experienced right shoulder issues off-and-on since late August. The right-hander has thrown just 12 innings in September, but he is only 7 2/3 innings away from tying his career-high back in 2011 with the Pirates. His latest outing against the Angels caused some concern as his velocity was down in the first inning. But he is expected to make an appearance during the final series of the season, and the Astros do not sound overly concern based on manager AJ Hinch‘s comments to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.
“We’ll make an assessment on if he’ll pitch again,” Hinch said. “I do expect him to, maybe another short stint, but all things are checking out positively.”
A healthy Morton will go a long way towards the Astros’ hopes of repeating. Despite losing McCullers to injury in early August, Houston’s starting rotation (3.20 ERA, 3.31 FIP) is one of the best in baseball. Combine an effective Morton with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Dallas Keuchel during a five- or seven-game series, I don’t think there is a team that can trump the Astros’ starting rotation.
Question #3: Carry an extra catcher or outfielder?
If the Astros decide not to carry more than eleven pitchers on the postseason roster, the postseason roster can look like this for the position players.
Catchers: Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado (2)
Infield: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman (4)
Outfield: George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick (3)
DH: Evan Gattis (1)
Utility: Marwin Gonzalez, Tony Kemp, Tyler White (3)
Barring something unexpected, the Astros’ postseason roster should pretty close to my mock one. So, eleven pitchers plus thirteen position players equals 24 total players on the ALDS roster, which leaves one valuable spot open.
Which player do the Astros choose to add? Based on what I’ve read and heard to this point, it could come down to another catcher or outfielder. That leaves three players on the team’s active roster who fit this description: Max Stassi, Kyle Tucker, and Myles Straw. Each brings something different to the club, but playing time will likely not be abundant.
At this point, I’d doubt if Stassi makes the roster as the third catcher with McCann and Maldonado already entrenched at the position. Tucker would be an interesting option based on his potential, but he doesn’t possess the blazing speed of Straw. In the postseason, there is a need for a speed guy on the bases in the right situation. Derek Fisher during Game 5 of the World Series is a recent example. So, Straw it is for the final roster spot in the ALDS. All three though ought not to expect an abundance of playing time under the special circumstances known as postseason baseball.