Astros: Fans, it’s officially time to bring out the panic button

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HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 10: Tony Kemp #18 of the Houston Astros plays the ball off the wall as Derek Fisher #21 backs him up on a Nelson Cruz #23 of the Seattle Mariners double in ghe eighth inning at Minute Maid Park on August 10, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The cold hard facts on what could be a lost season for the Astros if recent fortunes do not reverse soon.

Remember a while back I told you all to tuck the panic button away? Remember when I said keep it close, but tuck it away? Well, there’s no better time to bring it back out than right now. Place it on your table or desk and slam on it repeatedly until the sirens go off.

It’s officially panic time in Houston for the Astros. (Insert: “Houston, we have a problem” cliché, here). I know this is the unpopular opinion, but someone must say it. We can’t just sit around thinking this is all going to be fine. The bulk of the line-up is injured. The offense is lackluster and despite the starting pitching being dominant, without run support, these guys can’t pitch a shutout game in hopes one or two or three runs will hold off for a win. Oh, and don’t look at the standings, but there are a couple of teams within arm’s reach with only 41 left to go.

So, go ahead. Press it. Because the cold hard truth is, It’s panic time for the Houston Astros.

Comparisons

This time last year, August 16th, 2017, the Astros were 74-46. Today, they are 74-47. Only half-game difference but eerily similar nonetheless. We all remember that dismal August. They had a season long five-game losing streak. They just snapped a five-game skid last night. They were 11-17 last August including going 3-10 prior to this point last season. Your Astros are on pace to finish the month 11-16. The difference between last August and this month is that they were leading the division by 12.5 games. The Astros desperately cling to a two-game lead now. And despite wrapping up last August at .500, they still led the division by 11.5 games

Don’t look back but the Athletics are just two games behind. Throw the Mariners in the race too, they are just 4.5 back. The Astros are 9-4 against the Athletics this season with six games left to play. Houston is 6-7 versus the Mariners with also six games remaining, too.

Oakland is 21-7 in their last thirty games and have shown no signs of slowing down. The Mariners on the other hand are 13-17 in their last 30 games, but seem to have the Astros’ number. The remaining series against these two division foes will decide the division. And wild card spot for that matter.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 10: Jake Marisnick #6 of the Houston Astros makes a diving catch on a line drive by Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners in the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park on August 10, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The DL’s recent victims

With Carlos Correa back from the disabled list in hopes to provide offensive relief he’s hit 2-for-18 in his five games fresh off the DL. The tale of the tape is long and despairingly sad. Jose Altuve (right knee) isn’t even making this long west coast road trip, and unsure if he will return before September. Chris Devenski arrived on the ten-day DL with a hamstring injury. Jake Marisnick (groin), also on the ten-day DL since the August 11^th. Brian McCann (right knee), Lance McCullers (forearm) and George Springer (thumb) all have made themselves comfortable with hopes of returning sometime this month. You can find the full injury report here.

As the Astros slip and the division lead shrinks, it’s not guaranteed if and when these guys return that the production will come immediately. They will still need rehab and time to adjust. Correa is a prime example of that lag. 2 for 18 in five games isn’t exactly providing immediate offensive support.

Put out an A.B.P. on the offense.

Since that 14-0 shutout against the Dodgers on August 4^th, the Astros have scored just 33 runs and allowed 31 in nine games. They are 3-6 in that span. Four of those games were one-run affairs and they went 1-3. In fact, the Astros are 16-21 in games decided by one run. When they score, they score. When the floodgates open like they did last night, they are 28-6 in blowouts. This last week has been the lowest offensive output in a seven-game stretch all season. That’s expected when the bulk of the best hitters are on the DL.

When Jake Marisnick is your best hitter, something isn’t going right. Landing on my Trending Up list last week then finding himself on the disabled list this week, Jake and his .421 batting average in his last eight games has now been out of the lineup since August 11^th.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 09: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros takes infield practice before playing the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on August 9, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Alex Bregman and company

With the three of the top four hitters out of the lineup all together at one point, that leaves Alex Bregman and his .278 batting average with guys who are interchangeable. It’s been more or less a one-man show in the lineup.

Since the All-Star break, only Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez and Yuli Gurriel have played all 22 games. They are hitting .232, .284 and .188 over that stretch, respectively. Josh Reddick had some good streaks, but he’s batting .213 in this span. The untouchable prospect Kyle Tucker has contributed four hits in 24 plate appearances for a whopping .167 batting average. The rest of the lineup makes for a below average team. Since the Mid-Summer Classic, the Astros are ranked 28^th in the league in batting average at .224 combined. They rank 26th in runs scored with 95 And here’s the kicker and my point exactly. They rank dead last in hits with 164. To put things in perspective, the Rangers have 81 more hits in the last 22 games than the Astros do. Go look it up.

Wasted dominant pitching

Last week in my Trending Down article, I touched on how the dominate the starting pitching has been all for naught lately. In their last 51 combined starts they have gone (13-15) and notched 16 no-decisions. There simply is no run support and these five starters can’t realistically pitch seven shutout innings every game.

The Astros still lead the league in ERA at 3.05 combined. Since the All-Star break though, these five starters averaged 3.58 runs per game while scoring just 4.31 that’s skewed due to the 14-run game against the Dodgers and last night’s 12-1 win. Take those games out, they average just 3.45 per outing. That makes for losing baseball.

Justin Verlander has been seeking his 200 wins for two weeks now. He is seventh in the major leagues in ERA at 2.52. Gerrit Cole is ninth in baseball in ERA at 2.71. Charlie Morton is not far behind at 2.88, good for twelfth overall in the league. And the early struggles of Dallas Keuchel are long behind us as he is now 21st overall in the bigs with 3.43 ERA. Lance McCullers, who isn’t due back until September, is 40th with his 3.94 ERA.

That’s three of the top 12 pitchers in baseball going 4-7 in their last 14 games combined with three no-decisions. Explain to me how a starting rotation this dominate can’t win games like they did early on? The run support just isn’t there. At all.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 10: Manager AJ Hinch #14 of the Houston Astros talkas with home plate umpire Doug Eddings after Alex Bregman #2 argued he fouled the ball off his foot against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on August 10, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The lost season

There is no doubt in my mind that this team is a dynasty. The Astros will compete for the next decade, if not longer. They are a relatively young and talented roster. And a well-run cohesive group with the right mindset. You just can’t expect this many injuries to these key players to not decimate this team. It’s unfortunate, but sadly its true. An outlier at best, this is one of those fluky seasons where unlikely events are the downfall of a defending champ.

Even if they can salvage a wild card or win the division by a slim margin, they would without a doubt be a road team throughout the postseason. The Red Sox are 12 games up on Houston. The Indians aren’t far behind Houston only trailing them by five games, and the Yankees now have possession of the wild card should the Astros fall out of first place in the A.L West. All three of those teams have been in the top seven as far as wins in the last twenty games.

The Astros are still on pace to win 99 games but that once projected ten-game lead is now down to just five as they have the Athletics finishing 94-68 That five-game difference is essentially one sweep by Oakland and a bad series against the Mariners enough to put a fork in the Astros chances at a repeat. Remember that Houston plays both teams six other times apiece.

The Houston Chronicle famously buried the Astros on June 1^st of 2005 after going 15-30, we all remember what happened. They turned things around and went to a World Series. That team had something on their side. Time.

Next. Let’s brag about Astros’ starter Gerrit Cole. dark

By now you’re asking how can I bury a team that is 27 games above .500 and still leading their division? I just can. Maybe it’s the truth we all need to hear. Maybe this is the lost season. Or maybe this is what we, as fans, need to hear to rally around our guys like we did last August. And show up at home games where they are a mere 33-29 at the Juice Box. Amazingly, they are 41-18 on the road, which is the best road record in baseball. So, if they do make the playoffs, that gritty, claw and scratch mentality of stealing road games will come in handy. That’s an article for another day.

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