Astros: A trade idea that solves the Ken Giles situation

Does Giles have any trade value?

Giles is still just 27-years-old and is under team control through the 2020 season. He has a 0-2 record with a 4.99 ERA while striking out 31 hitters in 30 2/3 innings. While Hinch doesn’t seem to have confidence in Giles in close game situations, he has 12 saves in 13 save opportunities. When Giles is on, he can be one of the most dominating relievers out there. All stats and contract info from Baseball-Reference.

What is going on with Giles is in his head, in my opinion. After what happened in the playoffs last year, he is trying too hard to prove that he can do the job.

Giles is just a two-pitch pitcher. He throws a fastball and a slider.

Last season, Giles averaged 98.1 mph on his fastball, throwing it 52.7% of the time via Fangraphs. There is a reason his nickname is 100-miles Giles. He complements the heat with a wipeout slider, which averaged 87 mph in 2017. He threw the slider 47.3% of the time to keep the hitters on his toes. Some would say that Giles had his best stuff during the 2017 season, but that changed in the playoffs.

There is something wrong this year as his fastball has dropped to 97.4 mph. What is also interesting is that he is throwing fastballs 57.7% of the time. That is a 5% increase from last year and could signal that he’s not as comfortable throwing the slider. A change of scenery could be what’s best for Giles. His trade stock may be down a little, but he still has value to another team. Let’s work on the framework of the deal.

Continue below.

The framework of the trade.

At this point, the Astros are quite aware that they need to trade for bullpen help. Don’t forget that Lance McCullers will most likely move to the bullpen. While Astros fans may want him to be the closer, I see him as a long-reliever. Collin McHugh has earned a more high-leverage role in the bullpen. Forrest Whitley could be an Adam Wainwright option in the bullpen should the need arise. Giles could be a distraction down the road in the Astros bullpen, let’s devise a trade.

The Astros will most likely refuse any trade offers asking for the top-3 prospects in the Astros system. According to MLB Pipeline, those are Kyle Tucker, Whitley, and Yordan Alvarez. If the Astros want to acquire a top closer, the will have to sacrifice some prospects. They could control the level of the prospects though.

But they may have to give up an MLB ready player.

For the sake of this article, I will focus on one team because they are closer to competing in the near future than some of the others. Not the Athletics, that team is the Reds. They have something the Astros want, a proven closer in Raisel Iglesias. The Astros have been reportedly interested in Iglesias, so he would make sense.

Iglesias is under team control until the 2021 season, so they wouldn’t be trading for a rental. He has 19 saves this year with a 2.41 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched. Iglesias has been a dominating pitcher, with a career 3.03 ERA, skewed with his 4.15 ERA in his rookie season in 2015. All stats and contract info from Baseball-Reference. Let’s make a trade.

Continue below.

Let’s make a trade.

Don’t laugh, but Giles could be a headlining piece for a trade for Iglesias. I’ll give you a second to compose yourself.

The Astros could work out a trade with Giles and a couple of prospects to the Cincinnati Reds for Iglesias. Giles is still relatively young with a power arm, he could replace Iglesias as the closer right away. He is in need of a change of scenery, and the young Reds could be a launching pad to his career.

Iglesias is the better player in this trade, so the Reds would not make a 1-1 trade. In order to get him, you will have to throw in some extra pieces. The good news, with Giles involved, you don’t need to add top prospects. It may take two mid-level prospects to intrigue the Reds to pull the trigger. This is not one of those situations where they would trade an A.J. Reed type player, but you never know.

Who could be the two prospects?

This is just a guess, but it may take a pitcher and an outfielder to get the reds to bite. Maybe someone like RHP Hector Perez (10th top prospect) and OF Myles Straw (20th top prospect). With his rapid rise through the minors, Straw has gotten a lot of attention around baseball. He has elite level speed which could be very useful for a team as a leadoff hitter with a high on-base rate. Perez could be an impact starter for the Reds as soon as next season.

The speculated deal:

Astros get Iglesias.

Reds get Giles and two prospects (Perez and Straw were examples).

Next: Astros send Ken Giles down to Triple-A after outburst last night

The Reds would be taking a gamble with Giles, but he is clearly in need of a change. It could be any two prospects going the other way, but that is a way to move Giles and get a closer without giving up the top talent. What do you think? Would the Reds accept? Just an idea.