Astros: Three keys to victory against the Blue Jays

Key to victory #1: The bats stay hot

Like I mentioned in the previous slide, the Astros’ offense have a 142 wRC+ over the last 14 days. The next highest wRC+ over the same time span belongs to the Phillies with a 128 wRC+.

MLB wRC+ leaders over the last 14 days

1. Astros: 142 wRC+

2. Phillies: 128 wRC+

3. Reds: 127 wRC+

4. Indians: 119 wRC+

5. Mariners: 115 wRC+

Quick side note: THE REDS?!

To have a high wRC+ as a team, it is obvious that most of the team’s lineup needs to be producing. Well, the Astros’ lineup has done just that over the past two weeks.

Astros wRC+ leaders over the last 14 days

1. Jose Altuve: 213 wRC+

2. Evan Gattis: 195 wRC+

3. Jake Marisnick: 183 wRC+

4. Marwin Gonzalez: 172 wRC+

5. Yuli Gurriel: 172 wRC+

The only two Houston hitters who’ve not recorded a wRC+ over 100 during the past two weeks were Brian McCann (45 wRC+) and George Springer (38 wRC+). Everyone else on the roster, including the five listed above, have a wRC+ over 100 in the last 14 days.

The offense will be key against the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, which is struggling this season. While the recent hot streak can go cold in a heartbeat, Houston’s bats should continue to feel confident.

Key to victory #2: Dallas Keuchel continues to rebound

Much has been made about Keuchel’s recent troubles this season. And some of that criticism is deserving. The Astros need more of “vintage” Keuchel compared to one who produced the results from May 19th to June 10th.

Keuchel by the numbers, 5/19 to 6/10

• 5 starts

• 27 innings pitched

• 41 hits allowed

• 23 runs allowed (22 earned runs)

• 7 walks

• 21 strikeouts

• 19% HR/FB

• 7.33 ERA

• 4.37 FIP

• 3.71 xFIP

The June 10th start against Texas was the outlier, in which Keuchel was more of a victim of bad luck. Of the 13 hits he surrendered that day, 12 were singles. His 82.3 MPH exit velocity numbers were also quite good. But Keuchel’s ERA that day was a whooping 10.38. His FIP and xFIP? A much improved 2.42 and 3.92.

That said, Keuchel has appeared to turn the corner in his last two starts.

Keuchel by the numbers, 6/16 to 6/22

• 2 starts

• 12 innings pitched

• 12 hits allowed

• 2 runs allowed (0 earned runs)

• 3 walks

• 11 strikeouts

• 0% HR/FB

• 0.00 ERA

• 2.02 FIP

• 2.98 xFIP

While two starts isn’t a substantial sample size, it does have positive indicators. For example, a 87.7 MPH average exit velocity on 37 results. Between May 10th and June 5th, the average exit velocity off of Keuchel’s pitches was 90.7 MPH. He clearly had some issues in those starts, but the last three outings are encouraging. His start against Toronto on Wednesday will be another test. If the Astros want to be in the best shape going forward, more “vintage” Keuchel will be needed.

Key to victory #3: Limit the home runs

For the season, the Astros’ starting rotation has allowed 55 home runs, which is roughly middle of the pack in baseball.

Not too bad.

That said, Houston’s rotation over the last 30 days has allowed the second-highest amount of home runs with 26. Only the Rockies’ starting rotation has allowed more with 31 dingers.

Over the 30 day span mentioned, the Astros’ rotation has a 4.15 ERA. Based on the early season results, the rotation has clearly regressed. But you shouldn’t be alarmed by this fact. After all, it is difficult for any starting rotation to maintain mid-two ERA for the entire season. But home runs have become an issue in the last 30 days.

Home runs allowed by Astros’ starters over the last 30 days

1. Gerrit Cole: 7

2. Lance McCullers: 7

3. Justin Verlander: 5

4. Charlie Morton: 4

5. Dallas Keuchel: 3

The two pitchers with most home runs allowed over the last month have been Cole and McCullers with seven apiece. Neither are scheduled to pitch in the upcoming series against the Blue Jays. But their absence doesn’t mean that the Astros need to improve on this front. In this day of launch angles and lifting the ball, home runs are to be expected. The key for the Astros is not allowing home runs with runners on-base. In turn, Houston must not issue needless walks or allow clumsy errors.

Morton’s start on Tuesday will be an interesting one to watch. If you’re not aware, Morton has allowed 11 home runs this season. Last season, he only allowed 14 dingers. While the home runs have not hurt Morton too much as shown by his 2.74 ERA on the season, it is still a cause for concern.

Next: Astros AM Breakdown: The Yuli Gurriel Game

The Astros, once again, are in good shape heading into this series against the Blue Jays. Only time will tell if it remains that way.