Astros Trade Hypothetical: Three relievers to target in a trade this summer

The Astros, like all contenders, can use another reliever or two for the upcoming postseason push.

Look, the Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Numbers don’t lie.

• 2.94 ERA
• 2.82 FIP
• 3.2 fWAR
• 28.8% K Rate
• 6.5% BB Rate

That said, the Astros’ bullpen has been relatively untrustworthy in high leverage situations. FanGraphs has a Clutch rating, where you can find a thorough explanation here. By the Clutch rating, the Astros’ bullpen at -2.02 is the worst in baseball.

The next closest team by Clutch?

The Tigers at -1.25.

Now, Clutch is only one metric. I would recommend that you check out other numbers and situations to draw your own conclusions. For the sake of brevity, I won’t delve too much deeper into this aspect of the Astros’ bullpen.

And, no, blown saves are not a quality way to measure a reliever’s performance. Like the pitcher win, it is basically devoid of any true analytic substance. If you want to complain about the Astros’ blown saves, check out the leaderboard here. There is some truth to the statement that each fanbase considers their team’s bullpen to be worse than everybody else’s.

I’ve also come to find over the years that the eye test is a good compliment for numbers. And the Astros do seem to struggle in high leverage situations, or anytime Ken Giles steps into a non-save situation. Baseball can be weird.

By analyzing the numbers and by the eye test, it is reasonable to conclude that another reliever or two would be beneficial for the Astros. Especially if Joe Smith‘s right elbow turns out to be a more fragile than your great-grandmother’s antique collection. And let’s face it that each team probably wants another reliever or two anyway.

So, in theory, the Astros should look into available relievers. And there are three that I would check in upon before anyone else.

Reliever Number Two: Kelvin Herrera

While Herrera doesn’t fulfill the Astros’ perceived need of another quality left-handed in the bullpen, the Royals’ closer would be an upgrade in the later innings based on his season to date.

2018 statistics

25.2 IP, 23.2% strikeout rate, 2.1% walk rate, 1.05 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR

Herrrea has rebounded from a rough 2017 campaign when he posted a 4.25 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 59.1 innings. In fact, he has already been worth more in terms of fWAR — 0.7 — this season than he was last year — 0.1.

There is much to like about Herrera. He strikes out a fair share of batters and his walk rate has been remarkably low. Those are usually two signs of a quality pitcher. Out of all qualified relievers, his 2.1% walk rate is currently tied for the third-lowest in baseball. The pitcher Herrera is tied with is Ken Giles of the Astros. Oh, the irony.

However, Herrera’s numbers this season have been bolstered by a low batting average of balls in play, otherwise known as BABIP. For his career, Herrera has a .282 BABIP. In 2018, Herrera’s BABIP is .246. BABIP for pitchers is known for being to difficult to trust in terms of predicative power on a season-by-season basis. Here is Herrera’s past BABIP measurements since the 2012 season.

• 2012: .313
• 2013: .281
• 2014: .274
• 2015: .249
• 2016: .290
• 2017: .295

Historically, Herrera has only had one season — in 2015 — in which he has posted a BABIP lower than .274 for a season. That said, the Royals’ reliever may keep a low BABIP all season long. But like his 98.9% left on-base rate, I am not sure how long it would last.

To his credit though, Herrera has done an excellent job in limiting home runs. In fact, his home run-to-fly ball rate has dropped by 7.8% compared to last season. His current 6.7% home run-to-fly ball rate is still 3.0% less than his career-average of 9.7%. If he continues to limit the walks and keeps the ball in the ballpark, two things pitchers can usually control, then Herrera has to be a name to watch.

Unlike Hand, Herrera will also be a free-agent at the end of the season. Barring an unexpected development, it should be expected that Herrera finishes the season in a uniform that doesn’t have “Royals” or “Kansas City” embroidered on the front. In theory, Herrera’s impending free agency would keep the price down in terms of prospect compensation. The Aroldis Chapman trade a two years ago may be a favorite comparison point, but I wouldn’t expect a return like the one that the Yankees received from the Cubs. Of course, all it takes is one desperate team.

Reliever Number Three: Zach Britton

Besides Hand, the Astros have been most commonly linked to Britton, the closer of the Orioles. When healthy, of course. Rumor has it that there was a trade nearly in place last summer for Britton to be shipped to Houston. Looking back, Baltimore should’ve cashed in on Britton’s value before the 2017 season, but hindsight is 20/20.

The biggest knock on Britton over the past calendar year or so has been his health. As you may be aware, Britton dealt with a sore left arm early in the 2017 season followed by sore left knee in August. Then there was an Achilles injury shortly before Christmas this past winter. In fact, he was just activated from the DL on Monday and made his 2018 debut on Tuesday.

A healthy Britton though would be a valuable asset to any team’s bullpen. While he will probably not approach the level of excellence he demonstrated in 2016 — 0.54 ERA in 67 innings — Britton would give the Astros another left-handed reliever who can pitch in high leverage situations.

That said, Britton will need to show that his 2017 results were due to injuries and not a decline in skill.

2017 statistics

37.1 IP, 18.0% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, 2.89 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, 0.6 fWAR

While Britton’s 2.89 ERA in 37.1 innings was quite good, the precarious drop in strikeout rate and rise in walk rate is a concern. Not to mention the .336 BABIP.

Britton’s pitches appeared to be more hittable. For example, opposing batters increased the inside contact rate by 6.0% against Britton in 2017 compared to his historic 2016 season. His outside contact rate jumped by an incredible 14.5%. In terms of overall contact rate, the increase was 11.6%. And fewer batters were chasing Britton’s pitches outside the zone while swinging more in the zone by noticeable margins.

In all, Britton wasn’t fooling a lot of batters in 2017.

The fact that he had such a low ERA and FIP speaks to Britton’s talent. If Britton did pitch a full season at this rate though, I would not expect his overall numbers to look quite as good based on his peripherals. Oh, by the way, his sinker’s velocity was down by roughly one mile per hour. Not much of a difference, but it could be enough to allow batters to hit his mistakes.

Between now and the deadline, Britton’s performance will be under a microscope. Based on his first appearance, his fastball velocity was even lower than 2017. For example, his averaged 94.6 MPH on his sinker and 81.2 MPH on his curveball. For his career, those pitches averaged velocity is 95.4 MPH and 82.6 MPH. In his first appearance, Britton also walked three and struck out one. Surprisingly, he did not give up a hit or a run in the one inning appearance to five batters.

Like Herrera, Britton is a free-agent following the 2018 season. Unlike Herrera, who has shown notable durability in his early career, Britton will likely need to pursue a short-term deal to rebuild his value due to injuries. Of course, it is only mid-June with plenty of baseball left. Britton could rebuild his value in a hurry if he pitches close to his past level.

Next: Astros: Welcome to the musical chairs edition of Astros closers

But teams will not meet the high price that Britton could’ve fetched Baltimore even one year ago. This time around the interested parties have more leverage than the Orioles. But since it is the Orioles, I am not sure if they will actually trade Britton. Regardless, the Astros should keep an eye on him.

**Statistics and information courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs**