Astros AM Breakdown 6/12/18: Off day blues temporarily reprieved

Following a much-needed off-day, the Astros head west to California for their next series.

The Astros are riding high following a four-game sweep of the Rangers in Arlington. Regardless of the opponent, the act of sweeping four games on the road is not easy.

THE OFF-DAY BLUES HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY REPRIEVED!

Unfortunately for Houston, the team still faces a fair share of competition within the division. To start the season, the thorn in the team’s side were the Angels. And they are still hanging around, yet Shohei Ohtani‘s latest injury may change the Angels’ season outlook. But Los Angeles still has a guy named Mike Trout.

Another one for @MikeTrout ....crushed to center field! His 21st homer of the year ties him for the league lead. pic.twitter.com/tr1WTceLEg
— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) June 12, 2018

Yes, Trout is the best player in baseball. No flipping doubt.

As of late, the Mariners and their incredible record in one-run games is the thorn in Houston’s side. And the Athletics are not exactly pushovers this season.

The AL West is not a pushover division. At the same time, Houston has been really, really good.

2018 Run Differential in the AL West entering Monday

Astros: +127 runs
Angels: +36 runs
Mariners: +20 runs
Athletics: +10 runs
Rangers: -70 runs

If you go by the expected records, the Astros are still underperforming. And the Mariners are overperforming. Seattle’s success this season, which is great for their fans, is reminiscent of Texas’ success during the 2016 season. Again, the record in the one-run games for the Rangers (36-11) was a key reason why Houston didn’t win the AL West that season. I blame the water in Arlington.

Talking about struggles, the team needs Dallas Keuchel to pitch more like he is capable of in the coming weeks. At the same time, Richard Justice of MLB.com indicated in a series of tweets that Keuchel’s latest start was more of a byproduct of bad luck.

Dallas Keuchel, part 1. Never seen @kidkeuchy as frustrated as he was on Sunday. @Statcast reveals his start may have been the unluckiest of the season in the majors:
--3 of 13 hits (23.1%) qualified as hard-hit, which is ridiculously bad luck.
(continued)
— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) June 11, 2018

.@KidKeuchy, part 2:
--Overall 11th-lowest rate of hard contact among any pitcher with 20 batted balls .
--Opponenets 13 for 25 (.525) on Sunday. Expected BA based on contact and launch angle was .280. That 240-point gap largest of season of 1,700 Ps facing 20+ batters
— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) June 11, 2018

I concur with Mr. Justice. And, yes, Keuchel does pitch to generate contact. Preferably soft contract. Indeed, he did just that on Sunday in Arlington, but the results were not optimal. Again, bad luck.