Astros Draft 2018: A look at the needs of the farm system

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HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 03: Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow waves to the crowd during the Houston Astros Victory Parade on November 3, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 7 to win the 2017 World Series. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Unlike other sports, MLB teams typically go with the best available players and find a fit later. The Astros have been a prime example of this after drafting shortstop Alex Bregman in the 2015 draft. They had Carlos Correa already entrenched at shortstop, and on the night of the draft, George Springer told him that they drafted his replacement. Little did he know that Bregman would make his debut the next year as a third baseman.

After drafting Bregman, they drafted Kyle Tucker with the fifth overall pick of the draft. Astros fans are awaiting his debut, but that won’t happen until there is a need for it. The Super Two deadline is coming and going soon; it’s just a matter of time before he gets the call. In the 2016 draft, they drafted Forrest Whitley followed by J.B. Buskaukas in 2017. Who will be next?

When you are looking at the organizational depth at each position, you can get a feel for what is needed. While there are more than just the Top-30 prospects, these are the players we will focus on for this post. I will throw in a few lesser know prospects as well.

Catcher

HOUSTON, TX – MAY 22: Hector Rondon #30 of the Houston Astros shakes hands with Max Stassi #12 after the final out against the San Francisco Giants at Minute Maid Park on May 22, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Garrett Stubbs (next man up)

Jamie Ritchie

Chuckie Robinson

While Stubbs has been lauded as the catcher of the future for a couple of seasons, a down season last year questioned that. Jake Rogers surpassed him in the rankings before being part of the Justin Verlander trade. JJ Cooper joined Talking Stros this offseason and said that Stubbs was limited due to injuries. He fully expected him to bounce back this year, which he has.

Stubbs is number 23 on the Astros Top-30 prospects. He is hitting .364 with one homer and 15 RBIs. He is not built for power but could give you some athleticism and speed from the catching position. The 25-year-old backstop is at the Triple-A level ready to make the jump if needed. Max Stassi has stepped up this year and is serving as the primary catcher while Brian McCann is on the DL. Tim Federowicz is the backup at the moment.

Robinson is the 26 top prospect. He has gotten off to a slow start batting .176 with two homers and seven RBIs at High-A ball. Robinson has raw power and some speed for a catcher but has some room to grow.

Need: Moderate

Corner infielders

NEW YORK, NY – MAY 28: J.D. Davis #28 of the Houston Astros hits a three run home run in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Randy César

Abraham Toro-Hernandez

Joe Perez

There are some familiar names on this list, with the major league depth on the active roster. Reed and White are just waiting for their chance while Davis has been given his chance with Josh Reddick‘s staph infection. Perez is the interesting one to watch in this group. He could have been drafted as a pitcher, but instead, the Astros drafted him as a third baseman.

Hernandez was drafted in the fifth round of the 2016 draft, is batting .262/ eight homers/ 38 RBI in High-A ball. He’s a switch-hitting above-average third baseman. He was also able to demonstrate his catching ability last year. Cesar had a lot of playing time with the Astros this spring with Yuli Gurriel‘s injury.

Need: Primary

Middle Infielders

We see what players like Kemp can do in the big leagues. With Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa manning the middle infielder positions for years to come. Arauz was part of the Ken Giles trade, think of it as more of a throw-in. The nineteen-year-old shortstop is ranked number 21 and could be a surprise player for the Astros down the road. He’s batting .296/ 4 homer/ 27 RBIs.

The highest-ranked player on this list is Nova at fifth overall. He is only 18, so he has some time to develop. He will play for the GCL Astros this year, but he could be a stud while hitting for power and average. Birk and Matijevic are recent draft picks rising through the system. There are no super studs in this group yet, but there is time for them to develop.

Need: Marginal

Outfielders

Kyle Tucker

The Astros second-best prospect in Tucker highlights this group. He will be the next big prospect up when needed. They don’t want to start his arbitration clock too early unless he was needed. Kemmer and Ferguson are probably options for fourth or fifth outfielders.

Alvarez is the fourth-ranked prospect and probably the most likely to be traded if they want to hold onto Tucker. He is batting .299/ six homers/ 26 RBIs in Corpus and could be ready soon. He is currently on the seven day DL.

Derek Fisher is no longer a top prospect, but he is part of the Astros depth. Dawson is another name to keep an eye on. He is a mix of power (six in 51 games), and speed (19 stolen bases). Straw is making a name for himself as a contact hitter with extreme speed. In 52 games in Double-A, Straw has stolen 33 bases while batting .362.

Need: Primary

Pitchers

HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 17: David Paulino #63 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park on June 17, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Forrest Whitley

Whitley is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He was the 17th player drafted overall in 2016. He did lose some developmental time with his 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. Whitley is at the top, but the Astros farm system is loaded with starting pitching prospects. While you can never have too many starting pitcher options.

Cionel Perez has put himself on the map with his performance this year. He has a 1.66 ERA in 10 games while striking out 54 batters in 43 1/3 innings. Martes’ future is up in the air until he learns to harness his control. Paulino has shown potential, but a suspension has held him back as well. Armenteros opened some eyes this spring.

Breaking down @Milb win % by organization.#Astros 57.5%#Cardinals 56.5%#BlueJays 55.9%#SFGiants 55.4%#Rays 53.8%
...#RedSox last 39.4% pic.twitter.com/nehhujHfJZ
— Daren Willman (@darenw) June 2, 2018

Need: Moderate

In summary.

While there is not any clear need for the Astros, they could probably look for another Tucker like player. Maybe a high school slugger who has raw talent, who can lead the future Astros. A team with more immediate needs will draft a college player who could be ready soon. The Astros may not have the highest ranked minor league system, but they have a deep one. They have the highest winning percentages in the minors at the moment.

Next: Astros: Chatting with Karl Ravech on who is the best in the AL

Whatever they add, it supplements the players they may lose this year to improve the bullpen. They will go with the best available, but don’t be surprised if its a player off the radar. The Astros always seem to have an ace up their sleeve, with the exceptions of Brady Aiken and Mark Appel. Not every prospect will work out, but when they do, they become superstars. The Astros have the 28th pick in the first round on Monday.

***Stats from Baseball-Reference and MLB Pipeline***