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Astros: Another mock power ranking…
Power rankings are kind of useless. But it is nice to see how other teams besides the Astros are performing.
Baseball is fun, right? This first week of games has done little to dissuade me from such an opinion. By Jove, the Astros at 9-2 have performed quite well in the early going. I am frankly not surprised. But there are 29 other teams, and being the well-rounded baseball fan that I like to think I am, let’s discuss the entirety of the league before I go too far down the Astros’ specific rabbit hole.
30. Miami Marlins (3-7 record; -30 run differential)
A 20-1 loss should leave a bad taste in the Marlins’ collective mouth for quite some time. Also, Shohei Ohtani has three home runs, which is the same number that Marlins’ hitters have in 2018. That said, Miami does have talent. But it is young talent that needs time to develop. Struggles like the one Lewis Brinson is experiencing will be common for a while.
29. Cincinnati Reds (2-7 record; -25 run differential)
Time to point out the obvious once more: Ohtani has more home runs (3) than the entire Reds’ lineup. Perineal MVP candidate Joey Votto has gotten off to a slow start with a 53 wRC+ in his first 39 plate appearances. Out of all qualified Reds’ hitters, only three have an above-average wRC+. The pitching staff hasn’t fared better with multiple players posting high ERA and FIP’s. Cincinnati has played dreadful baseball, but improvement may not be far off. Seriously, the Reds can’t play much worse.
28. Tampa Bay Rays (2-8 record; -21 run differential)
If you want the definition of a snake-bit team in 2018, look no further than the Rays. The loss of Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon to Tommy John surgery was a blow. The underperformance of key contributors like Chris Archer – 5.94 ERA/4.17 FIP– is another. Joey Wendle, Daniel Robertson, and Mallex Smith have been the club’s best hitters early on in 2018. This sentence was one I think hardly anyone expected to see at any point this year.
27. Baltimore Orioles (4-7 record; -23 run differential)
The Orioles took three out of four against the Yankees last week, which was a surprise to many. Of course, there will be series when the clearly better team will have an off series or two. Baseball will baseball, right? Anyway, the Orioles have received quality production from Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez, and Adam Jones. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup is below average. Dylan Bundy has been far and away the team’s best starter with a 1.35 ERA/1.93 FIP in 20 innings. Somehow, Bundy has a 0-1 record, which again proves how useless the counting statistic known as a “win” is to pitchers.
26. Texas Rangers (4-8 record; -18 run differential)
As a team, the Rangers’ offense has an 84 wRC+. As a team, the Rangers’ pitching staff has a 4.42 ERA/3.87 FIP. Not a terrible team, but not a great team. Shin-Soo Choo has three home runs, the same amount as Ohtani. All aboard the “Choo” rebound train? Lastly, I apologize for the bad Choo pun.
25. San Diego Padres (3-8 record; -11 run differential)
Luis Perdomo’s start against the Astros on April 6th was encouraging. He held one of the best offense’s in baseball to just one run. I can verify as I was actually at the game for a change. In other news, Eric Hosmer’s misplay to end Saturday’s game will live on in infamy for quite some time. Overall, I like the Padres long-term, which echoes my sentiment from a few weeks ago. The offense is close to average eleven games into the season. And the pitching staff isn’t terrible as the Padres have posted a 3.72 ERA/3.77 FIP. But their record and run differential needs some work.
24. Chicago White Sox (3-6 record; -11 run differential)
In terms of wRC+, the White Sox own the best offense in baseball thus far. However, the Angels are also making a strong push for the league’s best title. Chicago’s offense, though, appears to be legit. Matt Davidson has four home runs with a 213 wRC+ in his first 35 plate appearances. Tim Anderson has three home runs of his own with a 151 wRC+. Jose Abreu continues to do what he does best: consistently hit. Wellington Castillo may not hit for a high average, but a 133 wRC+ with decent power makes him valuable. Yoan Moncada is off to a slow start with a 34.1% strikeout rate, yet he has walked 15.9% of the time. Small sample size, yes, but this is an encouraging start for Chicago’s hitters. The pitching staff has been generally underwhelming except for Reynaldo Lopez.
23. Oakland Athletics (4-7 record; -13 run differential)
The A’s pitching staff is roughly average, give or take. A 4.45 ERA/4.17 FIP isn’t terrible, yet doesn’t inspire much confidence. The offense, though, has continue to build on last season’s second half improvement. A collective 115 wRC+ is encouraging, and tied for the fifth-best in baseball. Again, it is still early in the season, but noteworthy. Matt Chapman has continued to be a force in the lineup. Both Jed Lowrie and Chad Pinder have had terrific starts to the season. Matt Joyce and Matt Olson are productive. If Jonathan Lucroy can regain some of his past success as a hitter and catcher, the A’s offense could be one of the better stories in baseball.
22. Seattle Mariners (4-4 record; -11 run differential)
In terms of the short- and long-term future, the Mariners are in a weird place. Much like the Giants, Seattle has an aging core still capable of winning some games. Although, this is despite of a quality farm system. Now, I am not stating that the Mariners can’t produce quality major league players from the farm. There are diamonds in the rough. But this offense today is slightly above average (109 wRC+), but the pitching staff has a 5.61 ERA/5.38 FIP. The only team in baseball with a worse ERA/FIP split are the Reds. With little immediate help coming, the Mariners are in an unenviable position.
21. Colorado Rockies (5-6 record; -11 run differential)
To no great surprise, the Rockies pitching staff has produced a 4.82 ERA/4.46 FIP. The vaunted Colorado bullpen, though, has performed relatively well with a 3.95 ERA/3.71 FIP. It is the below average offense that has been the main issue. Only four Rockies’ hitters have a wRC+ higher than 100: Charlie Blackmon, Chris Iannetta, Nolan Arenado, and DJ LeMahieu. The outfield, in particular, needs assistance. But the talent is there to make a run. Of course, this is contingent on the team clicking at the right time.
20. Milwaukee Brewers (6-5 record; -14 run differential)
Christian Yelich’s recent DL trip isn’t good news. Neither is the news that Corey Knebel will miss at least six weeks with a left hamstring injury. Both players are integral to any success the Brewers success in 2018. The offense needs to step up despite a 6-5 record. The -14 run differential doesn’t imply the warm, fuzzy feelings everyone was expecting from the Brewers in 2018.
19. Kansas City Royals (3-5 record; -4 run differential)
Let’s be honest for a moment: if the Royals even reach .500 on the season, it should be viewed as a success. That said, this Kansas City team has performed generally alright thus far. The pitching staff is in the middle of the pack. The offense needs work, though. A 76 wRC+ in their first eight games doesn’t inspire much confidence. But the Royals do reside in the AL Central. The Indians are struggling right now and the Twins could backslide. Plus, there are the rebuilding Tigers and White Sox. The Royals could sneak away with a few more wins in this division than perhaps any other in baseball.
18. San Francisco Giants (4-5 record; -5 run differential)
Same old story with the Giants that we’ve seen in recent years: little offense and quality pitching. The lineup, in particular, hasn’t looked like a contending one with an 80 wRC+ in 340 plate appearances. The two notable offseason additions, Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, have posted an 8 and 70 wRC+, respectively. Not good. On the other hand, the pitching staff has performed admirably despite injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardizja. Johnny Cueto has looked like his old self and Ty Blach has produced adequate results. Look out for Derek Holland if his ERA (4.09) starts to look more like his FIP (1.94).
17. Detroit Tigers (4-5 record; +4 run differential)
Like the Royals, the Tigers may benefit somewhat from residing in the AL Central. Three of the five teams in the division are rebuilding, and the Indians are currently struggling to start the season. While the losses will likely abound for Detroit, the pitching staff has shown potential with a 3.39 ERA/3.34 FIP in their first nine games. But the offense has been lackluster early on with a 77 wRC+. Once the pitching staff starts to experience a bit of trouble, the Tigers will come back down to earth. If they don’t, well, the credit will likely reside with the pitchers.
16. Philadelphia Phillies (4-5 record; +3 run differential)
Gabe Kapler had a less-than-stellar debut as a major league manager. A few of these goofs deserve the criticism. However, this Phillies’ team has talent. Lots of young talent. The addition of Jake Arrieta, despite the well-known velocity decline since 2015, brings another reliable starter to a group that features Aaron Nola. The offense has been slightly above average with a 104 wRC+. Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Scott Kingery have gotten to fine starts. Even Maikel Franco has shown a bit of the promise he is known for as a hitter. The question is how long can this type of performance last while they await Carlos Santana to start hitting like he is capable of again?
15. Minnesota Twins (4-4 record; +6 run differential)
There is a lot to like about the Twins. The pitching staff, bolstered by Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi, should enable this unit to be a quality one. Currently, Minnesota has the ninth-best pitching in ERA (3.38). The offense has some bright spots early on, especially Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, and Miguel Sano. Brian Dozier continues to remind people with his four home runs and 181 wRC+ in his first 38 plate appearances of his presence.
14. St. Louis Cardinals (4-6 record; 0 run differential)
The Cardinals, otherwise known as the team who can produce above-replacement talent from prospects you’ve never heard of before, hasn’t exactly have the best start. A 4-6 record isn’t terrible, but not great. At the same time, the NL Central is awfully competitive thus far. The Pirates have looked solid. The Cubs are, well, the Cubs. The good ones, mind you. Milwaukee may be hampered with injuries, but talent abounds there. If the Reds can ever figure out the rebuild, they wouldn’t be a pushover. The offense could be better from .302 wOBA, and likely will improve. The pitching staff is stuck in the middle now, but they could also improve as the season goes along. Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty are two names to watch this summer.
13. Cleveland Indians (5-5 record; -3 run differential)
Let’s see, the Indians pitching staff has been a solid bunch (3.19 ERA/3.90 FIP), yet the offense has been downright dreadful (.244 wOBA; 51 wRC+). The pitching staff’s quality hasn’t been a question. Yet, the offense’s best hitter, in terms of wRC+, has been Edwin Encarnacion (100 wRC+), and he has an .171/.275/.429 batting line. Honestly, the offense will turn itself around soon. That’s the hope, anyway. And once it does, the Indians should have no problem reclaiming their spot atop of the AL Central.
12. Washington Nationals (5-5 record; -3 run differential)
The Nationals have the reverse problem of the Indians. Washington’s offense has been a productive one with a .337 wOBA. Alas, the pitching staff has been in the bottom third in ERA (4.35) despite the second-highest strikeout rate (29%) in baseball. However, the Nationals’ FIP is nearly one whole run less than their ERA, so you may see correction there soon. Regardless, this start hasn’t been optimal in the last season of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy’s contract.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers (3-6 record; +2 run differential)
Despite the noticeable velocity worry surrounding closer Kenly Jansen, the Dodgers pitching staff has been solid early on this season. Like a few of the preceding teams in this (useless) ranking, the offense has been a problem. Only a 65 wRC+ in their first 368 plate appearances. Outside of the lowly Marlins, the Dodgers’ lineup has produced only a .293 slugging percentage and a .079 ISO. The team’s best hitter in wRC+ has been catcher Yasmani Grandal at 151. Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Enrique Hernandez, Logan Forsythe, and Joc Pederson have been in an early season funk. This slow start shouldn’t mean much, however, as the Dodgers’ offense will almost surely pick up their play in the coming weeks.
10. Chicago Cubs (5-4 record; +13 run differential)
Thanks to a strong start by their pitching staff, the Cubs have been able to withstand a roughly average lineup in their first nine games. In terms of ERA (2.56), the Cubs’ staff is the fourth-best in baseball. Their offense has had a few bright spots with Kris Bryant and Wilson Contreras. Addison Russell has been solid to start the season, and Ben Zobrist has turned back time for the ten or so days of the season. There have been little contributions elsewhere in the lineup, though. Losing Anthony Rizzo to 10-day DL despite his slow start doesn’t help matters.
9. New York Yankees (5-5 record; +11 run differential)
Giancarlo Stanton already has two games with 5+ strikeouts. It is only April. However, he has been treated quite unfairly by New York. But that is New York for you. The lineup has been relatively productive and it should remain that way all season long. The pitching staff hasn’t been quite as strong as the offense, but still a quality unit when everyone is healthy. The bullpen, on paper, is the best in baseball. Losing three out of four games to the Orioles stings, but shouldn’t be a long-term concern.
8. Toronto Blue Jays (7-4 record; +16 run differential)
A bum arm for Josh Donaldson or not, but the Blue Jays have jumped out to a decent start. This is a different sentiment than the one that was around one year ago. Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte have been key contributors. Steve Pearce is still around and still hitting home runs as he now has three on the season in only 23 plate appearances. Donaldson has been his usual self at the plate. Toronto’s Achilles heel may be the pitching staff, which has outperformed its FIP by slightly more than half a run.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates (7-2 record; +19 run differential)
If it wasn’t for the number five team on my list, the Pirates would’ve been the most surprising team this highly ranked. Gregory Polanco appears ready for his long-awaited breakout with a 216 wRC+ in 39 plate appearances. In all, the Pirates’ offense currently has eight hitters with a wRC+ higher than 100. Seven of the eight hitters have more than 30 plate appearances. The pitching staff led by Jameson Taillon has been solid. If Taillon can maintain his hot start, he may generate some support for higher accolades than NL Player of the Week.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks (8-2 record; +19 run differential)
Looking ahead, the Diamondbacks may be the Dodgers’ chief competition in the NL West if Los Angeles doesn’t turn it around like they did last year. This Arizona team has demonstrated they can hang with the Dodgers in head-to-head matchups. Regardless, the offense needs some help sooner than later. Paul Goldschmidt’s slow start and the injury to Steven Souza Jr. doesn’t help. But that is the silver lining: if both hitters can contribute later on, Arizona may have enough firepower. The pitching staff has been one of the best early on this season. It will be interesting to see how well the bullpen holds up all season.
5. New York Mets (8-1 record; +19 run differential)
Surprise! Yes, the Mets have jumped out to a great start. The pitching staff has posted a 2.25 ERA/3.18 FIP in 84 innings. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are arguably the most dynamic one-two punch in baseball. Mets’ pitchers in whole have performed quite well. Even the lineup has performed with a 112 wRC+ and eight home runs. The return of Michael Conforto bodes well for the lineup. If health and level heads prevail, this Mets squad will be fun to watch all season long. Yes, that is a long shot with the Mets, but I hope it happens.
4. Atlanta Braves (6-4 record; +27 run differential)
The Braves have been, well, a pleasant surprise. One of the top five offenses in baseball. One of the top ten pitching staff’s in baseball. This all equates to a team with a solid record and a ridiculous run differential. While not a singular case, it will be rather interesting to see how well this team holds up all season long. Honestly, the hype surrounding the Braves may be a year early. This team is only 6-4. But rebuilds can be finished earlier than expected. Look at the 2015 Astros.
3. Boston Red Sox (8-1 record; +16 run differential)
Out of all the teams in baseball, the Red Sox are arguably the hottest today. Winners of eight straight, Boston has experienced the splendid combination of quality pitching (2.69 ERA/2.85 FIP) and timely hitting (.323 wOBA). The postseason hope of Boston’s season likely lands on the arm of David Price and its young bats. If both can manage to uphold their end of the bargain, the Yankees may have tighter than expected competition in the Red Sox and Blue Jays atop the AL East.
2. Los Angeles Angels (8-3 record; +24 run differential)
This bears repeating: Ohtani has more home runs (3) than the Reds (2). The Angels have to be more than pleased with their offense (127 wRC+), which leads baseball in home runs with 18 entering Tuesday. Ohtani was just a matter of outs in the single numbers away from a perfect game in his second start. The pitching staff still needs healthy arms, regardless of Ohtani’s performance. Mike Trout and company may make it interesting for the Astros if they continue to win at this rate. Still way too early to declare anything definite, though.
1. Houston Astros (9-2 record; +24 run differential)
Honestly, this top ranking shouldn’t be of any surprise to people. The Astros pitching staff is the best in baseball with a 1.82 ERA/2.61 FIP. The starting rotation in particular has been nothing less than stellar with a 1.64 ERA/2.62 FIP. However, the offense hasn’t been the juggernaut we remembered during the 2017 season.
Next: Astros Minor League Recap: Fresno Grizzlies split season's first four games
A 112 wRC+ is still above average, but the team is tied for eighth in this category. But it is still early in the season. Strikeouts have also been an issue. Yuli Gurriel rejoining the team soon should benefit the lineup in more ways than one.
**Statistics and information courtesy of ESPN and FanGraphs**