Houston Astros: 5 Bold Predictions for the 2018 season

Will the Astros win more than 100 games again?

The Astros sealed their second ever 100-plus win total ever in franchise history in route to a World Championship going 101-61. Their first 100 win season in 19 years. One hundred wins in a season is no small feat. In the history of Major League Baseball, teams have won 100 or more games only 102 times. To put that in perspective, that’s dating back to 1892. There’s some food for thought. In fact, last season there were three teams with more than 100 wins. The Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers and your Houston Astros.

According to Fan Graphs projections, the Astros are predicted to finish 98-64. In fact, they are anticipated to have the most wins in the MLB this year. Surprised? Not so much.

There have been a handful of teams that have won 3 straight 100 win campaigns let alone back to back. This Astros team is built to sustain dominance for the next decade. They only got better this offseason and kept the lineup intact. No step-back at all. I predict the Astros to win 100 or more games again this season.

My Bold Prediction: Astros finish 104-58, 1^st Place in the American League.

Another 200 hit season for Jose Altuve?

The Houston Astros had the most runs last season (896). They had the most hits last season (1581). 2^nd most home-runs with 238, just three shy of the Bronx Bombers. They were 1^st in runs batted in with (854) and had the best batting average with .282. So, how does the best team in baseball get better this season? Stay healthy.

Last season, despite the dominance, the Astros had periods of offensive droughts due to injuries. They lost Jake Marisnick, Brady Rodgers, Evan Gattis, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa for some games. This offense will be healthy, and everyone is coming back.

This season is set up nicely for Jose Altuve to have more than 200 hits again for an astonishing five consecutive 200+ hit streak in his career. According to baseball reference, Altuve is projected to have only 176 hits this season, the most in baseball.

It’s really hard to predict stats from year to year, but I will tell you this. Altuve will follow-up his MVP season with more than 200 hits.

My Bold Prediction: Altuve will have 210 hits in 2018.

Justin Verlander with a career year?

When your 4, 5 and 6^th pitchers are Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton, and Collin McHugh, it’s not much of a “Bold Prediction” to say the pitching is going to be phenomenal this year. Without really needing depth to the starting rotation, the Astros went out and signed Gerrit Cole. Oh, and Justin Verlander will be here for a full season.

Presumably, your starting three will be Verlander, Keuchel and Cole followed up by that 4, 5, and 6th pitchers I mentioned who are better than presumably half the leagues starting three.

So what is bold about this staff?

How about a guy who is 12 wins shy of 200 wins for his career? What do you say about a 34-year-old who won 24 games in 2011 and flirted with almost 20 wins five times in his 13-year career? Add some depth and rest between games and he may as well be on the way to another 20 win campaign.

Verlander was 10-8 before arriving in Houston and won all 5 of his Starts here in the regular season and going 5-1 in the postseason. With roughly averaging about 27 quality starts in 2018 for the Astros, I think this year will be his best season since 2011. Being mentioned in 8 Cy Young discussions throughout his career and winning the award once is huge. Adding depth, rotation and keeping intact his offense is a big difference.

My Bold Prediction: Verlander will win 20 games going 20-5 and being discussed in the Cy Young race again.

Bullpen and Closers.

The Astros undoubtedly addressed the bullpen needs signing Joe Smith and Hector Rondon. The one area I wanted them to focus on was the closer role. They didn’t go out and make a splash signing a closer which tells me they have faith in a rebounding Ken Giles. Don’t get me wrong, Giles had a great regular season. He saved 34 of 38 opportunities with an ERA of 2.30. But the postseason was a different story. He had 7.2 combined innings pitched with an 11.74 ERA.

This season though, he has some help.

Fangraphs projects Giles to have 33 saves with an ERA of 3.15. If the struggles do follow him into the 2018 season and the help acquired doesn’t help out like anticipated don’t count the Astros out from making moves. They won’t allow bullpen troubles to be the Achilles Heel in their run to win a back to back titles.

My Bold Prediction: Astros trade for a closer at the deadline. Who that may be remains unsure. I’m guessing we’d be hearing Zach Britton and Craig Kimbrel’s (we can dream right) names thrown around.

5^th Bold Prediction

Your Astros will repeat as 2018 World Champions…

That isn’t bold at all. In fact, they are the clear favorites, and I already said that in my very first article for Climbing Tal’s Hill.

Let’s not be cliché here.

The ‘REAL’ 5^th Bold Prediction.

This prediction actually deals with the J.T. Realmuto deal or lack thereof. Recent rumors emerge that Astros and Marlins are in discussion about swapping top prospect OF Kyle Tucker for catcher Realmuto. How serious these talks are is still premature.

The Astros do need help at the catcher position with the question marks around Gattis and Brian McCann but is the top prospect worth trading away?

Maybe, just maybe the Astros don’t want to trade for Realmuto but just shopping the idea of how much Tucker is worth. The Marlins seem like they want to rebuild but is one prospect enough? The price for him seems to be rising. I think the Astros will be ok with the catchers they have now and testing out the value of a great prospect early is smart. If Tucker remains safe, he will undoubtedly compete for a role in 2019. But, will he be called up late this year to see some time and test the waters?

Next: Astros looking to trade for Realmuto?

My Bold Prediction: Kyle Tucker sees playing time in the majors for the Astros in the fall of 2018. He may even have a role in the postseason just like Derek Fisher did.

*** Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference***