Astros: Everything is Awesome! Ken Giles Version

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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 25: Ken Giles #53 of the Houston Astros pitches during the tenth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game two of the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 25, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

If there was a lone blight upon the Astros’ otherwise glorious October, it was undoubtedly the meltdown of closer Ken Giles. How bad was Giles? Consider that from June through the end of the Astros regular season – a stretch of four full months – Giles gave up nine earned runs. In just 7.2 postseason innings, he gave up 10.

10!

Yeah, Giles was (really x 10) bad.

Can the Astros, who will be playing under the burden of heightened expectations in 2018, trust Giles to anchor the back of their bullpen?

Probably?…

The Astros are not likely to view Giles’ postseason failures with the same knee-jerk vitriol as most fans. They’ll place far more value on Giles’ excellent 62.2 regular season innings, in which he improved upon 2016, his first full season as a closer than they will a microscopic sample size of 7.2 innings.

They didn’t let a small sample size stand in their way when they decided to bench him in the middle of the World Series. And the Astros will no longer be measured by how well they do in the regular season – that’s one of the few fall-outs of winning a championship.

So, what, exactly, happened in the postseason? There could obviously be dozens of answers to that question – but if you want to feel better about 2018 and the idea of Giles resuming his role as closer, here are two factors to focus on.

EVERYTHING IS AWESOME! FACTOR #1:

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 17: Ken Giles #53 of the Houston Astros reacts during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees in Game Four of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 17, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

No one likes giving the opponent credit; it reeks of excuse-making. But for a pitcher like Giles, who thrives on hitters chasing his nasty slider outside the strike zone (.371 OPS against this year), patient offenses were his kryptonite. And few were as patient as the Yankees, who ranked third in both team on-base percentage and walks, and the Dodgers, who ranked sixth and first.

After inducing swings on 50% of his sliders in the regular season, that number fell to 45% in the LCS and World Series as the two teams consistently worked deeper counts (his pitch count per inning rose from 18.2 during the regular season to 22.9).

Relying on the fastballs.

This forced Giles to throw more fastballs (he threw fastballs 62% of the time to New York and Los Angeles as opposed to just 53% during the regular season). And, wow – did they feast – to the tune of 8-for-12 with two doubles and two home runs on batted fastballs.

Having said that, the vast majority of line-ups don’t feature the likes of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and/or Yasiel Puig.

Do the Astros need a closer to navigating heavy hitters? Of course. But that’s much easier said than done. There’s a reason the greatest pitcher of this generation (Clayton Kershaw) has a “postseason choke” narrative weighing down his career: it’s exponentially harder to be great in the playoffs.

EVERYTHING IS AWESOME! FACTOR #2:

BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 09: Ken Giles #53 of the Houston Astros celebrates after recording the final out in the ninth inning to defeat the Boston Red Sox 5-4 in game four of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park on October 9, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Houston Astros advance to the American League Championship Series. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

A.J. Hinch used Giles on just four multi-inning saves during the regular season. In the postseason, Giles was deployed three times in the 8th inning and brought back to work the 9th. In fact, most of the nightmare-inducing memories you have of Giles’ postseason occurred in that second inning of work, something he’s simply not accustomed to doing.

Giles’ first multi-inning appearance happened in game 4 of the ALDS. In the 8th inning, he faced Boston’s 4, 5 and six hitters and sat them down 1-2-3. In the next inning, Giles gave up an inside-the-park home run and then retired the next three for a series-clinching save.

He was then brought in with one on and one out in the 8th inning of game 1 of the ALCS to face the Yankees’ 2-4 hitters. He sandwiched Judge and Didi Gregorius outs around a Sanchez walk. In the 9th, after starting it with two strikeouts, he gave up a monster home run to Greg Bird before ending the game on his third strikeout.

Giles’ final multi-inning appearance, of course, was game 2 of the World Series when he coughed up a two-run lead. But lost in that collapse was Giles’ first inning of work in which he retired the Dodgers’ 2-4 hitters to send the game to extra innings.

Expecting too much?

By now, you likely see where this is going. Acknowledging the extremely small sample size, here are Giles’ numbers, by inning, when he was asked to get more than three outs in the postseason:

1st inning: 0.00 ERA; 0.33 WHIP; 2.86 FIP
2nd inning: 12.00 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; 13.20 FIP

You probably don’t need me to tell you that, well – he wasn’t very good in that second inning. But, but, but! He was very good in the first inning, often against the opponents’ best hitters.

Was this then a failure on Hinch’s part, regarding putting his pitcher in position to fail? Not really.

Again, we’re dealing with an incredibly small sample size. But Giles did make four multi-inning appearances during the regular season. He was lights-out good in that second inning, allowing just two hits while striking out eight of 14 batters faced.

Of course, retiring six Orioles on a Tuesday night in June is not the same thing as trying to work your way through the heart of a playoff team’s order with your season on the line.

EVERYTHING IS AWESOME! CONCLUSION:

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Jose Altuve #27 and Ken Giles #53 of the Houston Astros celebrate defeating the Boston Red Sox 8-2 in game two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

So… where does that leave us? The Astros will likely give Giles every opportunity to render his postseason performance nothing more than a horribly-timed slump next season. They have, after all, invested plenty in the guy (to the tune of five prospects) and that investment will likely make them hesitant to invest even more in a position that can tend to be volatile and unpredictable already.

And, since he won’t be facing the Yankees and Dodgers every night, and will almost certainly revert to strict(er) 3-out saves. It’s likely that assuming there’s no mental hangover, Giles will be good enough to efficiently close for a 90+-win team that should compete for a playoff spot.

Next: Astros’ are not one of Shohei Ohtani’s final choices

Unfortunately, we may have to wait until next October to see if Giles has any lingering postseason demons. How do you feel about Giles being the closer in 2018? Let me know on Twitter: @Bags4HoF

***Stats from Baseball-Reference***

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