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Astros vs. Yankees AL Championship Series Preview
A look at how the Astros match up with the Yankees in this best-of-seven AL Championship Series
In a surprising twist, the Astros will not be traveling to Cleveland to take on the AL-best Indians. Thanks to an improbable comeback, the New York Yankees will be coming to Houston. While the Astros may be the initial favorites, this won’t be an easy series. Here’s how the two teams match up.
Starting Pitching
The Yankees’ rotation is headed by young phenom Luis Severino, who imploded in the Wild Card game but was strong in the ALDS. Midseason acquisition Sonny Gray had a solid season but struggled in his start against Cleveland. Masahiro Tanaka struggled this season but was dominant in his Division Series start. Veteran CC Sabathia posted respectable performances in both the regular season and the ALDS and has a wealth of playoff experience.
The Astros will start Yankee-killer Dallas Keuchel in Game One, fresh off a strong start against Boston. Justin Verlander was solid in his one start and one relief appearance in the ALDS. Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton struggled to varying degrees against the Red Sox but are coming off strong seasons. The presence of two aces atop the staff gives Houston the edge.
Edge: Astros
Bullpen
The Astros’ bullpen is a bit of a concern at this point. Chris Devenski struggled in the Division Series, and closer Ken Giles hardly looked unhittable. They will need more out of those two, as well as Will Harris and Joe Musgrove. They still lack a serviceable southpaw, as Francisco Liriano failed to inspire confidence in his ability to get lefties out in tough spots. Nevertheless, the potential is there for this group to be tough.
New York, however, does not have this problem. Their bullpen is almost a whos-who of some of the game’s best relievers. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren form quite the formidable bunch. The Astros’ offense will need to score runs off the Yankees’ starters, or it could be a rough series.
Edge: Yankees
Offense
The Astros finished first in the majors in runs scored, team batting average, doubles, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. They also finished second in home runs, only to the Yankees. New York, however, finished seventh in batting average, second in runs scored, third in on-base percentage and third in slugging.
MVP frontrunner Jose Altuve had a strong Division Series, hitting .533 with three homers and four walks. Aaron Judge, however, hit just .050 with 16 strikeouts against Cleveland. The Yankees have some quality hitters, but the Astros’ offense is just too strong and deep.
Edge: Astros
Defense
New York finished 18th in the majors in fielding percentage, while Houston finished 21st. The Astros were 12th in the majors in double plays turned, while the Yankees were dead last. By contrast, the Astros were dead last in stolen base percentage allowed, while the Yankees were 14th.
Houston features once recent Gold Glove winner in and Altuve, with Gold Glove-caliber outfielders in George Springer and Josh Reddick. The Yankees have a recent Gold-Glover in Brett Gardner, with strong defenders in Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius. Overall, it’s hard to claim one defense is better than the other definitively.
Edge: Even
Bench
The Astros’ roster construction gives manager A.J. Hinch some flexibility. Thanks to Marwin Gonzalez‘s versatility, Hinch can get Evan Gattis‘ bat, Carlos Beltran‘s experience or Cameron Maybin‘s speed in the lineup. Having the injured Jake Marisnick would help, though.
The Yankees have some similar versatility. They have the veteran infielder Chase Headley, the experienced DH Matt Holliday and can choose between lefty-hitting outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and switch-hitter Hicks. Both teams have players who can provide an impact off the bench.
Edge: Even
Coaching
Joe Girardi has the experience, with one championship under his belt already. But he was also the subject of much criticism for his non-challenge call in the ALDS and would have had to answer for that if the Yankees had lost.
Hinch has been great all season and made a gutsy and controversial move to bring in Verlander in relief in Game Four against Boston. The gamble paid off, and how he manages the pitching staff in this series could be crucial.
Edge: Astros
Next: Astros: How to take down the New York Yankees
Prediction: Astros in six
This series will be plenty competitive, and the Yankees can certainly win some games with their bullpen and some homers. But the Astros’ starting pitching and their deep lineup will give them the edge. They’ll finish the series in New York in Game Six with a nail-biter.
***Statistics courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference***