Astros: Three Roster Bubble Questions for the ALCS

Collin McHugh

The obvious first name has to be Astros’ right-hander Collin McHugh. After all, McHugh has been a part of the Houston rotation many more times than not since the 2014 season. It was quite strange to see him off the ALDS roster against Boston. Not unexpected, mind you, but strange nonetheless.

But credit the veteran pitcher with his outlook and team-first viewpoint.

This was a refreshing, yet expected take from McHugh. I have a gut feeling that it will be down to him, Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton for the final two rotation spots. In hindsight, an argument can be made that Houston’s decision makers should’ve chose McHugh over either Peacock or Morton in the previous series. But it was understandable why Houston chose Peacock and Morton.

Odds are that McHugh will make the roster. His ability to pitch four to six effective innings would be a welcomed asset. It is much more likely to see two starting pitchers appear in the same game in the postseason than the regular season. See the Nationals-Cubs game on Wednesday. The Astros even hinted to the idea of carrying twelve pitchers in the ALCS on Wednesday.

This is the likely scenario as a seven-game series is another animal compared to a five-game series. An additional pitcher provides that needed flexibility. While Tyler Clippard and Francis Martes provide useful depth, McHugh has been a more proven player. His track record – 3.70 ERA in 606.1 innings since 2014 – speaks for itself. Of course, he may not transition well to a bullpen role from a starting role. The same could be said of Morton. Only Peacock could, in theory, make that transition rather seamlessly.

Another, albeit useless, reason why McHugh may be included: Past performances in September and October. 2.45 ERA in 2016. 3.76 ERA in 2015. 1.59 ERA in 2014. Like I said, useless. But interesting. 4.26 ERA in 2017. Or maybe not.

Two appearances as a pinch runner. That is the only action Derek Fisher saw throughout the Astros’ ALDS with the Red Sox. Barring an injury, it is unlikely Fisher will see much playing time in the ALCS.

This is quite frankly of no surprise. The Astros’ outfield is already full with George Springer, Josh Reddick and Cameron Maybin. Also, Marwin Gonzalez will receive plenty of playing time in left field due to his bat. You have to keep the team’s RBI leader in 2017 in the lineup somewhere. And, yes, I know RBI is kind of a useless statistic. Oh, let’s not forget about Jake Marisnick. He could possibly return for thr World Series, but I’m getting ahead of myself.

Anyway, Fisher is unlikely to appear in a meaningful postseason role unless injury or ejection is involved. But no Marisnick in the ALCS may sway the Astros. And the team may rather have an additional outfielder if something bad were to happen. If an injury occurred in the infield, Gonzalez would likely transition back to diamond. Maybin is used more as a pinch runner and defensive replacement on this roster. Keeping Fisher on the roster may allow the Astros some flexibility without sacrificing the outfield. I have a feeling that it may come down to Fisher or the player on the next slide if Houston chooses to carry another pitcher.

Fisher has to be considered one of the Astros’ building pieces in the foreseeable future. Barring a trade, his role will likely increase with the club next season. After all, there is no guarantee that either Carlos Beltran or Evan Gattis will return to the Astros. While he may make the ALCS roster, there is no guarantee he will be used extensively. Or at all.

Tyler White

Another position player the Astros’ roster bubble for the ALCS. Call me surprised. If you couldn’t tell, I was using sarcasm. I’m afraid it doesn’t translate well in a blog post.

Tyler White was the backup infielder for the Astros’ ALDS roster. Unless I’m mistaken, White did not appear in any game in that series. No surprise there.

Like Fisher, White’s spot on the team for the ALCS is in a precarious spot. The Astros are likely to carry twelve pitchers and this means a position player has to lose a roster spot. Unfortunately for White, the Astros have infield flexibility.

Gonzalez, for example, offers valuable flexibility in the outfield and infield. Yuli Gurriel can play first and third base. Alex Bregman can play third base and shortstop. For White, this means a rather low chance of action. But if he does, his bat and infield versatility could be an asset. Pay attention to how many catchers the Astros carry. Juan Centeno could be the odd man out instead if Houston chooses to roll with just Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. Bold strategy.

In limited time this season for the Astros, White actually produced well – 126 wRC+ in 67 PA – albeit limited opportunities. His bat could be a positive. However, he is still unlikely to make much of an impact in the ALCS, barring injury.

Next: Astros: The evolution of the role of starters in the 2017 playoffs

Like I stated previously, the Astros’ ALCS roster is likely close to decided. Twelve pitchers will most likely be carried. That means one less position player. White and Fisher stand out. And don’t forget about Centeno. McHugh will likely be added as his ability to throw quality innings can’t be overlooked.

**Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs**