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Astros: A honest take on the ALDS
Welcome back, Astros postseason baseball, my old friend. It has been too long.
Well, well, well. The Astros are about to battle the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS in just a few hours.
This is gonna to be fun!
As I look forward to this series, and hopefully two more to follow, the Astros find themselves in a great position. AL West champions for starters and the third-best record in baseball. That is no small accomplishment.
Is it the ultimate goal?
Nope.
But still downright impressive. Winning baseball games at this level is not easy.
This leads me to my take. Hot or cold take? I am not sure. Naive or realistic? I will leave that open for interpretation.
ASTROS ALDS TAKE: WIN OR LOSE, THIS ASTROS SEASON IS WORTH REMEMBERING FOR A LONG TIME. IT WAS A (MODEST) SUCCESS.
Before you hit the ever-tempting “X” in your respective browser, let me explain this “take”. For one, the Astros only have an 15.3% of winning the World Series per Fangraphs. That is still a rather, um, low probability.
And by golly, I will take it!
Call me crazy, but 15.3% chance of winning the World Series is definitely better than zero. Like me, you would likely take 0.001% over a flat 0%.
Houston’s odds of winning the ALDS currently stands at 52.7%. That is much better than 15.3%.
Will this ALDS with the Red Sox define the Astros?
Maybe. Maybe not. There is no definite way of knowing today.
Regardless, the Astros’ 2017 season is worth keeping in the memory vault. It has already been a success; a modest success.
Anytime a baseball team wins 101 games out of a 162-game season, it is worthy of warm, fuzzy feelings.
I have no qualms claiming the Astros’ 2017 season as a modest success. I am actually ecstatic to see the Astros win 101 games. After all, Houston won only 51 games in 2013. Basic math but the 2017 iteration nearly doubled the win total of arguably the lowest point in franchise history.
The success transcends the overall record, though. For example, Jose Altuve is in the running for AL MVP for a second year in a row. Depending on your WAR preference, Altuve leads all of baseball with an 8.1 oWAR found at Baseball Reference. In fact, the Astros have eight, yes, eight, batters with an oWAR of at least 2.5.
Back to Altuve and the historical importance of his offensive contributions for a moment.
The Astros’ diminutive in stature, not skill, star second baseman has obviously been one of the best players this season. No, actually the past few seasons. But his 2017 metrics stand out. Courtesy of the Play Index by Baseball Reference, Altuve’s 2017 oWAR, which was 8.1, ranks 162nd in baseball history. While some may not view that as impressive, it should be to a certain extent once you realize the context. And the context is this: Baseball has been played since 1876. 18,853 players have partakes in this game at the major league level. And Altuve ranks amongst the top in best offensive production by this metric.
This Astros’ offensive power may very well be the key to postseason success. For example, the lineup in Game 1 of the ALDS is not to be treaded upon lightly.
Game 1 lineup. Here we go. pic.twitter.com/BaAQAlZD0x
— Julia Morales (@JuliaMorales) October 5, 2017
Next: Astros announce the ALDS 25-man roster versus the Red Sox
The question now becomes what Houston can accomplish in the postseason. 11 wins are needed to win it all. If this occurs, this will go down as the most successful team in franchise history. If not, the 2017 Astros will be remembered as one of the top two-to-three teams in franchise history. The ALDS is where the difference begins.
**Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference**