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Astros Countdown: Top Five Second Half Storylines
The first half was good for the Houston Astros.
With a record of 60-29, the Houston Astros are running away with the American League West. With the second half starting July 14th against the Minnesota Twins, the Astros are 16.5 games ahead of the second place Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers for first place.
Even with the historic first half, the Astros have some things to keep an eye on going into the second half. Here are the top five storylines for the second half of the regular season.
Carlos Beltran
Signing a one-year $16 million dollar deal with the Astros before the season started, Carlos Beltran was not expected to be the offensive force that he was during the Astros run in 2004. However, he has been disappointing during his 40-year-old season.
After hitting .295 with a .850 OPS just a season ago, Beltran has a .227 batting average, the lowest of his career, with a .690 OPS, his lowest since 2000. In 75 games, Beltran has 11 home runs with 35 RBIs. This is the first season in his storied career in which he has an OBP lower than .300 and a slugging percentage under .415, which has only happened four times in 20 seasons.
One of the reasons behind his offensive struggles is his strikeout numbers. He is striking out a career high 21.1 percent of the time with 66 strikeouts in 286 at bats. This would only be the second time in his career that he would strike out more than 20 percent of the time in a season.
The best Beltran is coming up?
That is the bad news. The good news is that Beltran has always been known as a second half batter. Take away the .926 OPS, the 23 home runs and seven triples hit in an Astros uniform back in 2004. The last time Beltran’s OPS was lower after the All Star break than before it was his 2013 season with the St. Louis Cardinals.
After Beltran had been traded to the Texas Rangers in a trade deadline deal on August 1st, 2016, he was a solid contributor to that offense. He hit seven home runs and drove in 29 RBIs with a .280 batting average and a .776 OPS in his 52 game stint in Arlington.
These are not the kinds of numbers he may have put up with the New York Mets or the New York Yankees, but, with an offense at the level of the Astros, it will help if he does more than he is doing now.
The All Star starters
With the best record in the AL coming into the All Star break, the Astros got some national attention with three starters named to the AL All Star team. Now, going into the second half of the season, the Astros will need Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer to continue their success to prepare for a deep run into October.
Heading into the All Star break, it seemed as though opposing pitchers could not stop these three. Altuve, Springer, and Correa each had batting averages over .480 with OPS’s over 1.340. Combined, these three hit nine home runs, drove in 31 RBIs and scored themselves 30 times. These were the numbers that helped the Astros average 9.75 runs in the month of July before the All Star break.
Even if they regress, these guys will stay strong.
Those are numbers that are hard to keep up. With offensive leaders like Altuve, Correa, and Springer, the Astros are set. However, it will be interesting to see how the offense performs when each comes back to reality a bit.
The Astros need each of these superstars to perform well offensively. These are the bats that helped create the 16.5 game lead in the AL West. Astros fans will have to see if that continues for the rest of the month of July and into August and September.
Alex Bregman
Young players go through growing pains no matter where they are drafted. Former second overall pick and current Astros third baseman Alex Bregman has been struggling at the plate this season.
In 84 games, the 23-year-old is hitting .256 with a .757 OPS, both lower than his 49-game rookie stint back in 2016. He has eight home runs, 27 RBIs and only 40 runs scored in 289 at bats.
However, there are signs that Bregman may be finding his niche offensively. First, he has developed more extra base-type power. He has 21 doubles this season, which is tied for third on the Astros with Springer, and a triple. Also, it seems as though Bregman is seeing the ball better. He has walked more frequently and struck out less often than he did a year ago.
Bregman about to break out?
Bregman may be in store for a monster second half. In the eight games before the All Star break, he hit .321 with a .996 OPS. Of his nine total hits, seven of them were doubles, and he scored himself nine times.
Even though he is such a young player, Bregman is expected to perform well offensively just like the rest of his team. With a spot at the bottom of the lineup, he has the potential to be a gap-power threat that drives in runners from the middle of the lineup. He is a name to watch in the second half.
Bullpen depth
The Astros bullpen has been very solid. With pitchers like Ken Giles and Chris Devenski, the bullpen has put together a very respectable 4.09 ERA so far this season.
More than anything, the Astros bullpen has been very difficult to hit against. With a .219 batting average against, which is No. 4 in baseball, the Astros lead the MLB with 390 strikeouts as a bullpen, 42 strikeouts ahead of the second place Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros are also tied for fourth with the Boston Red Sox with a 1.18 WHIP.
However, there could be issues ahead for a bullpen that averages 11.40 strikeouts per nine innings. The first is the one left-handed pitcher available in the bullpen. Even with a 1.06 WHIP and a batting average against of .188, his lowest since 2014, Tony Sipp cannot pitch to lefties by himself. He has had some help along the way. For example, Devenski has a .110 batting average against lefties with 41 strikeouts in 27.1 innings.
Help needed?
However, the Astros are going to need some bullpen help down the stretch. They are No. 8 in baseball with 308 innings already under its belt. Devenski is already at 52.2 innings of work this season, which leads all Astros relievers. Five other relievers in the Astros bullpen, Giles, Will Harris Michael Feliz, Luke Gregerson and James Hoyt are all over 30 innings pitched this season.
The Astros are going to need to save their bullpen if they want a deep run into October. That may mean another arm acquired before the trade deadline could be needed.
The injured starters
When it comes to starting pitching after the All Star break, Astros fans should be focused on two names, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. Both will be coming back from their respective injuries after the All Star break and will bring the starting rotation to what the Astros thought it would be out of Spring Training for the first time this season.
McHuge difference?
McHugh, in the middle of a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi, has not pitched in a major league game this season. However, historically, he has done better in the second half of seasons. Last season, the veteran right-hander went 8-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 15 starts. With his opposing batting average decreasing by .20 points, he struck out 83 batters in 82.2 innings.
The second half of the 2016 season was the time in which Keuchel started to pitch well again. After a rough first half in which he had a 4.80 ERA with a 1.37 WHP, the left-hander had a 3.94 ERA in seven starts, allowing hitters to hit only .230 against him.
Next: Astros: Chris Paul will throw the first pitch to open second half
Keuchel, who is already in the middle of a career year, and McHugh will determine what general manager Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the Astros front office staff will do at the trade deadline.
***Stats provided by ESPN.com, MLB.com, Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs***