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Astros Trade Rumors: Bullpen Lefty is the Only Need
With the All-Star break a week away, the MLB trade season will soon be in full effect. Who should the Astros chase?
The Houston Astros currently sit atop the AL West 15.5 games in front of the second-place Los Angeles Angels. The Astros will be buyers in the trade market, but what exactly do they need to acquire?
Many writers have suggested that Houston is in great need of another quality starter. Pitchers like Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have all been linked to the Astros wish list. However, none of those pitchers are in their top form thus far this season, and their price tag would likely be steep.
Two questions face the Astros at midseason.
How much does Houston need to improve to feel comfortable as a World Series contender, and at what price?
Seeing that the Astros are the best team in baseball and have hardly slowed down since opening day, the amount of improvement needed is minuscule compared to other teams.
The Houston offense is second to none in baseball and continues to throttle opposing pitching on a nightly basis, with multiple players having career years. The offense is definitely not something the Astros need to look for, so the only need is pitching. Now the question is what kind of pitching is needed? Starting pitching, relief, or both?
The Astros spent basically the entire month of June with their starting pitching decimated by injury and went 16-11. Houston only played one series against a notable contender in Boston. The Astros lost that three-game set 2-1 and lost both games by one run. But that Houston could not only tread water but actually gain ground without their entire starting rotation shows incredible depth at that position. This depth did take a hit when David Paulino was suspended for PED use.
That month also took a toll on the Houston bullpen. In the month of June, the bullpen’s ERA was a season high 5.14. Relievers took the mound 95 times that month, and accrued 103.1 innings pitched that month, both numbers are the highest of this season.
It’s now July, and the starters are trickling back on the mound. Lance McCullers pitched yesterday, Charlie Morton will pitch tonight, and Dallas Keuchel should get the ball after the All-Star break. Collin McHugh has also been on a throwing program and is ramping up for a return in the second half. With the resurgence of Mike Fiers, and the emergence of Brad Peacock as quality starters, the Astros appear to be just fine with starting pitching and have additional depth with Francis Martes.
Survey says…
Adding a quality reliever and more importantly, a left-handed reliever should be the main goal for the Astros in 2017. While adding one of the aforementioned starters might add a notable name to the starting staff, it would come at a price that doesn’t need to be paid by an organization that is primed to be a dynasty for considerable future.
What LHP relievers should Houston be targeting?
Brad Hand, San Diego Padres (2.36 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .174 BA LHB)
Justin Wilson, Detroit Tigers (2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .212 BA LHB)
Sean Doolittle, Oakland A’s (3.93 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, .000 BA LHB)
Of these three, Doolittle is the only one under contract, which is a very team friendly one at that. He is making roughly $2.6 MM this year and is owed $4.4 MM in 2018, followed by two team-option seasons. Considering Tony Sipp is making $6 MM this year and next, that is a steal.
Hand is under team control until 2020, and Wilson until 2019. It’s hard to say which one of these would be the best, as they are all great targets. I would lean toward Doolittle as the price may be lower and he adds a bit more of a veteran presence at 30 years of age.
Wilson is the hardest thrower with an average fastball of 96.5 mph, and also has the best whiff rate of the three. Hand offers the best balance of pitch usage as he is basically split between fastballs and sliders, while Doolittle and Wilson mostly rely on their heater.
So take your pick, you would have any of these three for at least next season as well.
Who should Houston be willing to give up, or NOT give up?
First off, for a relief pitcher, the Astros should not give up a top prospect like Kyle Tucker or Francis Martes. Those guys should be off the block.
With Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Marwin Gonzalez‘ ability to play the hot corner, third base prospects should be easily expendable. Colin Moran is batting .300 with 17 HR’s in Fresno and is a former 1st Round pick. He should be a prime target for rebuilding teams and is big league ready. J.D. Davis could also be a valued trade chip as he is rocketing through the minors. He currently is in AA Corpus Christi and is hitting .288 with 19 HRs.
OF Derek Fisher has enjoyed success in Fresno and his short stint with the Astros earlier this season. He could be a part of the Astros future very soon, but with a player like Kyle Tucker waiting in the wings, Fisher’s departure could be worth more than him staying. His value is peaking due to his big league performance this year.
2B Tony Kemp is batting .331 with 14 SB’s this season in Fresno. He, like Moran, should be playing in the Majors, but the Astros are simply flooded with talent at present. He should be a part of a trade.
Other players like Preston Tucker, A.J. Reed, Tyler White, and Teoscar Hernandez should all be on the block, but their values likely aren’t as high as they once were.
Next: Three Astros who are most likely to win the AL MVP
A combination of a few of these players for one of the relievers listed above should seal the deal and give the Houston bullpen a needed boost.
***Stats per Baseball-Reference & Fangraphs***