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Astros: Justin Verlander could offer a Randy Johnson like impact
Could Justin Verlander be Randy Johnson 2.0 for the Astros in 2017 and beyond?
If you are a true Astros fan, you remember the summer of Randy Johnson in 1998. Managed by the legendary Larry Dierker, the Astros won a franchise high 102-games. They were already a good team, but they took a chance on a future Hall of Famer in Johnson, who was 34 then. Johnson was having a disappointing season after finishing second in the AL for the Cy Young Award in 1997.
With the Mariners, Johnson was 9-10 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 starts. He had already amassed 213 strikeouts in 160 innings. The Mariners offense was not giving him much run support and he was unlucky with them. Then Johnson was traded to the Astros, he answered with a 10-1 record with a 1.28 ERA. He dominated with 116 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings and another 17 strikeouts in 14 innings in the postseason.
If it weren’t for the Kevin Brown effect, we could have seen how good that Astros team could have been. The Astros were 47-32 after 79 games that year, they are 53-26 this year. This is a different team built by Jeff Luhnow to win. This team could win more than 102 this year.
The purpose of this article is not to compare Verlander to Johnson, but to look at what a change of scenery can do. They both struggled before the trade deadline, could Verlander turn the season around after a trade?
Who could have a potential Johnson like impact in 2017?
The problem is that there is not a Randy Johnson on the market this year. You have the usual suspects in Jose Quintana, Gerrit Cole, or Sonny Gray. As I wrote yesterday, they are all pitching better as the deadline approaches. More names can pop up as teams drop out.
Al Avila said Tigers open to listening to offers but not aggressively shopping players... pic.twitter.com/7jFKGzRiOY
— Evan Woodbery (@evanwoodbery) June 23, 2017
One team that is close to having a fire sale are the Tigers. According to Evan Woodbery, the Tigers are listening to trade offers. However, they will not push trades of any of their veterans. Two Tigers players have full no-trade rights as well as hefty contracts. Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are those two, but the Astros should have little interest in Miggy. The Astros don’t need hitting.
That leaves Verlander with his $28 million dollars per year salary until 2019 with a vesting option for 2020. According to Jon Heyman, “one rival GM suggested he doubts anyone would pay Verlander’s full salary.” Heyman suggests that there are a handful of teams who would trade for Verlander. The Astros would be one.
Do the Astros need the 34-year-old Verlander? Let’s look at Johnson’s stats prior to 1998 to see how they compare. Johnson had a 124-68 record at the time with a 3.37 ERA with 2,000 strikeouts in 1,734 innings pitched.
Verlander had a career 173-106 record before this year with 2,197 strikeouts in 2,339 innings. Verlander was 22 when he made his debut compared to Johnson’s debut at 24, which explains the innings difference.
Should the Astros go get Verlander?
Verlander may have extra wear and tear on his arm, but he did finish second for the AL Cy Young award last year. In 16 starts this year, Verlander is 5-4 with a 4.47 ERA with 92 strikeouts 94 2/3 innings. The caution flag you might throw out is his league leading 44 walks. With the Mariners, Johnson had 60 walks in 1998 and only 26 with the Astros.
The Astros could acquire Verlander for fewer prospects than with Gray or Quintana. However, it would take a large financial commitment for the Houston front office. Mark DeRosa was back at it trolling Astros fans with his own Verlander trade idea. Another writer will address his trade package later.
Getting a player like Verlander on this team would help the Astros with another former Cy Young winner. He would be asked to be a third pitcher in the playoffs. Some question Verlander’s playoff records, but he has a career 7-5 record in the playoffs with a 3.39 ERA. He has also recorded 112 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings in the playoffs. He has also pitched in three World Series games.
Verlander had more playoffs experience than Johnson before he came to the Astros. Prior to 1998, Johnson had a 2-3 record with a 3.52 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings. In 1998, Johnson pitched 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and a 1.93 ERA in two starts.
Next: Astros potential trade targets are pitching better lately
Everyone packed into the Astrodome when Johnson pitched, the same could happen for Verlander. Verlander will also not be a free agent at the end of the year. Johnson was a left-handed flame thrower, but Verlander could bring the same skill set from the right side. He could be their number one target to not deplete the farm system.
***Stats from Baseball-Reference***