Astros: Previewing the Red Sox series with Buster Olney

The Matchups

While the playoff matchups won’t be determined this weekend, it’s a big series for both sides. The Red Sox need to catch up to the Yankees, and the Astros need to maintain a sizable lead. With such a big matchup, let’s look at the probable pitchers.

The good news is that the Astros missed Chris Sale, but we do face some other semi-experienced players. I exaggerate a little.

Tonight, Mike Fiers will face Drew Pomeranz. Less than a month ago, Fiers was told he would pitch out of the bullpen. After Morton had gone down with injury, Fiers took full opportunity of his second chance. After having an ERA mid 5.00, Fiers lowered it to a respectable 4.29. He is now 4-2 with 58 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched. Pomeranz is 6-4 with a 4.69 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings.

Tomorrow, David Paulino will face last year’s Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello. Like Pomeranz, Porcello is not having that good a season with a 3-8 record with a 4.67 ERA. He does have 82 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, Paulino has struggled going deep into games with a 6.59 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. Paulino has pitched three times, only last four innings twice.

On Fathers Day Sunday, Musgrove will face David Price. While Price is a good pitcher, he is struggling a little this year with a 5.09 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 23 innings. Price is battling some blister issues at the moment, but he is expected to pitch Sunday. Musgrove is 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 58 innings. After coming off the DL, Musgrove only lasted 4 2/3 innings versus the Rangers.

Looking at the team stats, the Astros and Red Sox are close to most statistical measurements. One of the outliers is the Red Sox are last in the American League with only 63 homers compared to the Astros 103. Houston’s batting average is .277 with an OPS of .813 versus Boston’s .757 OPS. Houston has scored 366 runs this year compared to the Red Sox’s 313. Without David Ortiz, the Sox are not as powerful.

The pitching department is a little evener. While the Astros have a better ERA at 3.72 compared to the Red Sox’s 3.90, the Sox have more quality starts wth 36 to 29. This is most likely due to the veteran presence the Red Sox have in their rotation. Not known as a strikeout team in the past, the Stros are first with 686 strikeouts this year.

Interview with Buster Olney.

The two teams seem to be somewhat comparable, but I wanted to talk with ESPN’s Buster Olney about the Stros vs. Sox matchup this weekend.

CTH: Which team has the most staying power?

Olney: The Astros are the ones you have to pick because of the lead in the division and how tough the AL East is. The Red Sox have a much bigger challenge, the Yankees are pretty good and add at the deadline. Toronto will play better. I wonder if at some point the Rangers will waive the white flag and the Angels are not going to go in big. With that in mind, I think the Astros would the most dangerous come October.

CTH: Have the Red Sox adjusted to life without David Ortiz yet?

Olney: I think they have to a point, you will never replace what he was last year, one of the best hitters in baseball. Even if he came back, would he still have been that player? Looking forward, they need to add some left-handed hitters. If the Royals ever get to a point to where they are ready to sell, the Red Sox could go after Mike Moustakas. They miss his power. You can see that with them being last in the AL in homers.

CTH: What do the Astros need to do at the trade deadline?

Olney: Starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching. They are in an interesting position. It reminds me of where the Cubs were last year. Everyone knew by mid-June that the Cubs would make the playoffs. The Cubs decided to spend heavily on a guy that they thought would help them win the World Series in Aroldis Chapman. The only difference is that there are more pitchers potentially on the market this year.

If you are the Astros, you think that you are most likely to be in the postseason. So how heavily do you invest in a starting pitcher? The only difference is that there are more pitchers potentially on the market this year. So no doubt about it, the Astros will go after someone like Sonny Gray, less likely Gerrit Cole, or maybe a rental or two who will be free agents. Someone like Jason Vargas of the Royals.

I think they will try to get one or two guys. I don’t think teams are obligated to tell us everything about injuries, like a Dallas Keuchel situation going on right now. Now I also reserve the right to wonder if there is something more than what they are telling us. By telling us the symptoms, I have to wonder what the source of the problems are.

CTH: Tell us a little more about Sonny Gray.

Olney: We have seen Houston and Oakland matchup before with a trade and Billy Beane is one of the few GM’s who would consider a trade of significance to trade within the division. I think Oakland would be motivated to move him today while the Pirates may wait a while.

This past offseason, the Astros, and White Sox talked about Jose Quintana. However, within the Astros organization, some questions have been raised this year with him not pitching well. I spoke to Sonny (Gray) the other day, and he looks really good. His fastball velocity is up, and he’s using a slider this year, and he’s got his curveball back. He’s closer to being what he was a few years ago and remember, he has postseason experience. (He talked more about Quintana that I will include later)

CTH: What about Aoki, will he be on the Astros roster all year?

Olney: It depends on injuries and trades. How does he fit on this roster? When you see the potential of what Derek Fisher can do if he’s not in one of these trades they make. You have to wonder if they would prefer the bat with the thump in it versus a guy who puts the ball in play.

They also have to think of a postseason roster, and Aoki off the bench versus a National League is pretty attractive.

CTH: With the teams as they are, which team would you have winning in a potential ALDS?

Olney: It will depend on Keuchel for me. What would Keuchel and McCullers status at the time? I think the Astros can go toe-to-toe with the Red Sox pitchers assuming those guys are okay. If not, it becomes a different situation. I think Chris Sale in the playoffs will be amazing. He’s a man on a mission this year. After Sale, the Red Sox have big questions about their rotation. We don’t know how David Price’s command will be at the time.

CTH: What do you think of the Astros bullpen?

Olney: That’s why I see the Astros going out to get a guy to go deeper into games to protect this bullpen for the playoffs. Extra innings were thrown by relievers in June and July always seemingly manifests itself in October. With the current rotation, Keuchel and McCullers are the guys to go seven innings plus in their starts. While the rest of them, they tell them to throw as hard as you can for five innings. That’s what they told Morton to do at the beginning of the year and how they feel about Musgrove too.

CTH: Which matchup are you most intrigued about for this weekend’s series?

Olney: After Pomeranz start last Sunday night I’m glad we don’t have him again this week, he takes so much time in between pitches. The most interesting matchup is Musgrove versus Price, not because it’s the Sunday Night Baseball game of the week. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Price. He has the biggest contract of any pitcher in history in terms of total value of it.

Year 2 and there are already questions about him. He’s been really mediocre this year, and I’m curious to see how he pitches and be better. The Red Sox success will depend on if Price pitches better. With their offense, they can win, but they need better production from Price.

CTH: Can the Astros offense defeat the three pitchers they will face this weekend?

Olney: Oh yeah, they have the most dynamic and athletic offense that is so well balanced. Give credit to Jeff (Luhnow) for targeting the players he did. To go out and add Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, even if Beltran is not hitting as they expected. The impact that he has had on the other players is all they talk about.

When the Astros got off to such a great start, the offense wasn’t clicking as well as they hoped, but Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and George Springer started to heat up later.

CTH: Thanks for taking the time Buster to talk to me.

Thanks to Buster Olney and the ESPN staff who reached out to me to set up this interview. Being able to talk to a guy of his stature was nerve-wracking but fun.

Next: Derek Fisher makes an early case to stay with the Astros.

Don’t forget to watch to watch the Astros play the Red Sox on Sunday on ESPN. Listen to Dan Shulman with analysts Jessica Mendoza and Aaron Boone. Olney will be reporting from the sidelines. This will be a good series to watch between two of the top all-around teams in baseball.

***Stats from Baseball-Reference and ESPN’s team stats page***