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Astros Countdown: Top Five Risky Trade Ideas
There are ways to improve this Astros team.
With the trade deadline inching closer, many people are thinking, with a combination of top prospects and needs, that the Astros may be in line for a big move in the months of June or July. However, with that in mind, there are multiple moves that can be very risky that the Astros should stay away from.
No moves
This is a bit counterintuitive. If you look at this team from afar though, keeping the team the same does seem to make sense.
With a first place spot in the American League West by a whopping 13 games, the Astros have a record of 43-18, which is the best in baseball. Even with all of the injuries, especially with the pitching staff, the team just keeps winning. When both Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove went on the disabled list retroactive to May 27th, the Astros were just three games into their 11-game winning streak. Also, it is easy to forget that proven veteran starter Collin McHugh has not even thrown a pitch for the major league team this season.
However, with Dallas Keuchel being put on the 10-day DL for the second time this season, it puts all the more pressure on guys like Brad Peacock, Mike Fiers or even David Paulino to make up for his lost starts. Even though Fiers and Peacock have been pitching well as of late, it is unfair to expect them to fill the shoes of the former Cy Young award winner.
Even when Keuchel gets back, the Astros, even with two ace pitchers at the top of the rotation, have a depth issue at the back end that could hurt as the season progresses. This is not even to mention the need for another left-handed pitcher to compliment Tony Sipp in the bullpen.
Even with the best record in baseball, it is too dangerous for the Astros to not make a midseason move. Whether it is for a veteran starter, an ace for the top of the rotation or a serviceable lefty in the bullpen, a move needs to be done.
Every season has at least one. A veteran pitcher that has a breakout season, warranting a mid season trade to a contender. This season, that pitcher is Kansas City left-hander Jason Vargas. In 12 starts, Vargas has a 2.18 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. Not really a strikeout pitcher, Vargas has 59 strikeouts in 74.1 innings of work.
In his last start against the Astros, he was okay. In the 7-5 Royals win, Vargas gave up two earned runs on six hits, including a Brian McCann home run, and a walk, striking out five.
Those numbers are very nice. He would be a nice fit in the Astros rotation as a No. 3 starter. However, the thing that Astros fans should be worried about is the price to get him. The Royals are looking to sell at this deadline and want to start rebuilding their farm system. Vargas, with his stellar season thus far, may be very expensive for a soft-tosser like he is.
Also, this is his first full season in which Vargas has had long-term success in terms of ERA. With a career ERA at 4.06, he has only had under a 4.00 ERA three times in his career. In all three of those seasons, his ERA was over 3.70.
Vargas could be in for a rough second half if his career stats say anything. The Astros may not want to be the team to take a chance on Vargas, especially with the steep price.
If there were to be a move that the Astros would like to have back, J.D. Martinez might be one of them. Drafted by the Astros in the 20th round of the 2009 MLB Draft, Martinez struggled at the major league level with the Astros, hitting .251 with a .687 OPS in 252 career games. After he was released on March 22nd, 2014, the Detroit Tigers quickly picked him up two years later.
In a Tigers uniform, Martinez became a completely different player. He his over 20 home runs in his first three seasons in Detroit, hitting over .280 in each of those years. In 2015, he was an AL All Star, hitting 38 home runs with 102 RBIs and a .282 batting average.
This season is nothing different for Martinez. With a late start to the season because of a mid-foot sprain, he has a .289 batting average and a career high 1.125 OPS in 25 games. He also has 16 extra base hits, including 10 home runs, and has driven in 23 RBIs.
With an outfield spot not needed on the Astros major league roster yet, Martinez would most likely be an add-in in a deal for left-handed reliever Justin Wilson or right-handed starter Justin Verlander. However, with Carlos Beltran and not knowing how long he will be in an Astros uniform, the need for a bat in the outfield may arise.
This is the issue with Martinez. The expectations for him will be sky high in an Astros uniform. After an underwhelming stint early in his career, he will be expected to be exactly the type of hitter he was with the Tigers.
Martinez may need to chance to prove that he can hit in an Astros uniform. The 2017 trade deadline is not the time to bring him back.
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander is already one of the best Detroit Tiger pitchers ever. Currently No. 7 in all time wins for the Tigers organization, Verlander has won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2006 and the AL Cy Young and MVP award in 2011 when he won the pitching triple crown, leading the AL in ERA, wins and strikeouts.
Now, as a 34-year-old on a struggling team, Verlander may be looking for a chance to win somewhere else. Joel Sherman said on MLB Network that Verlander should be a part of a trade with Martinez and left-handed reliever Justin Wilson in a deal for many Astros prospects including Derek Fisher and David Paulino.
At first thought, it seems good. Verlander, a veteran presence, could be good for Lance McCullers and Dallas Keuchel and provide depth in the rotation. Also, it brings a guy in with postseason experience. However, Verlander has not earned trade talks this season.
In 2017, he has a 4.63 ERA, his highest since 2008, with a 1.46 WHIP. His strikeout numbers have declined, with only 66 in 70 innings of work after leading the AL with 254 last season. Also, he has averaged a career high 1.3 home runs per nine innings of work.
That whole deal is very expensive. The Astros have to be sure that Verlander, a pitcher who is 34 and is under contract until 2019, is the answer to the rotation question. A blockbuster deal may bring national attention, but may not be worth it in the long run.
On the surface level, Minnesota Twins starter Ervin Santana has been having a stellar season. In 12 starts, the veteran right-hander has a 2.44 ERA with a career best 0.93 WHIP. However, there are many things that would not be a good fit if he were to become a member of the Astros.
First of all, his FIP is 4.67, the highest in his career. What does that mean exactly? FIP, according to FanGraphs is a statistic that uses, “outcomes we know that do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed.”
In some ways, it does make some sense why his FIP is so high. First, his strikeout numbers are not very high. Using primarily a low-nineties fastball and a mid-eighties slider, Santana averages only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings of work, his lowest since 2006. Also, Santana is walking more batters this season than in years past with a career high 3.6 walks per nine innings.
However, the number that should worry Astros fans is his fly ball percentage. This season, 43.1 percent of all contact is in the form of a fly ball with 11.8 percent of those fly balls becoming home runs. Santana has given up 11 home runs in his 81 innings of work this season. That is 1.2 home runs per nine innings, his highest since 2012. Coming to Minute Maid Park with stats like that could be trouble for a veteran right-hander such as Santana.
Next: Astros must add another left-handed reliever
The Twins are going to try and sell Santana to the highest bidder with his value at an all-time high. The Astros better be careful if they do ask about Santana as a possible move.
***Stats provided by FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and MLB.com***