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Astros: The Difference the Month of April Can Make
Ballgames in April will not make-or-break a team’s season. At least immediately. The Astros found that out the hard way last year. But so far it appears that they’ve learned their lesson in 2017.
If I accurately recall, I was in the Florida Keys on vacation while the Astros were in the middle of their April tailspin last year. I do remember anxiously checking my phone numerous times just to see the depressing reality that the Astros weren’t a good baseball team. At least by the results that matter: the win-loss column.
At the end of the day, or month in this particular situation, the Astros finished last April with a 7-17 record. It was quite a dreadful, in the baseball sense, start to their 2016 season. For example, Dallas Keuchel and his beard became mortal as he allowed a .308 wOBA to opposing hitters. The season before, which was Keuchel’s Cy Young year, his opponents wOBA was .170 in that first month. Yes, it was quite the precarious change.
The bearded one’s rotation mates didn’t fare much better in that first month. Some didn’t even fare better as exemplified by Collin McHugh and his .407 wOBA last April. Lance McCullers was on the shelf to start that season if my memory doesn’t betray me. Essentially, Mike Fiers and Doug Fister were counted upon to stop the bleeding when possible. Let’s just say that didn’t happen as much as the Astros would’ve liked. The same issues carried over into the bullpen as Ken Giles (.433 wOBA allowed) and Tony Sipp (.414 wOBA allowed) pitched at a less-than-optimal level.
The offense was a little less troublesome as they ranked twelfth in collective wRC+. Unfortunately, their wRC+ was a 98, which is slightly below average. Combine this with an inconsistent pitching staff and it is no wonder that the Astros started the 2016 season behind the eight-ball.
Fast Forward to 2017
Jump to the next calendar year, and the Astros are in much better shape in terms of the win-loss column.
Compared to last season when it took the team till May 3rd to achieve victory number nine, this year’s rendition is already 9-5 as of last night. Before the loss by the hands of the Angels on Tuesday, the Astros were in fact having one of their best starts in recent years.
Astros are looking to win 10 of their first 14 games for the first time since the 2006 team.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 18, 2017
Regardless of the results last night, the Astros have looked much better as a cohesive unit this season than they did the year before.
For example, Keuchel (.181 wOBA allowed) has closely resembled the ace that we remember from 2015. While McHugh has not pitched a major league inning this season, the rotation is relatively stable. The addition of Charlie Morton has been especially helpful.
The offense, despite its slow start, has managed to put itself within the top four units in baseball in terms of wRC+ (114). A lot of that success can be attributed to George Springer, but the rest of the lineup is starting to come around. Sure, the pitching staff carried the load for the first week or ten days of the season. But the offense is now starting to carry its weight.
And the bullpen, minus a miscue here and there, has been solid. A huge part of that success, though, has been the emergence of Chris Devenski. You may have heard of him by now as he has struck out 21 of the 38 batters he has faced this season.
Next: Astros: What's making Chris Devenski so Dominant?
As you, the valued reader, know by now, the season is never decided by mid-April. There is much baseball left to be played. Anything can, or will, happen. But the chances of postseason glory is better if you start the season strong. The Astros didn’t last year and they paid dearly. But if the team can maintain a solid start to the season then their 85.8% chance of making the postseason entering Tuesday will likely increase. We couldn’t express that same level of confidence around this time last year.
**Statistics and information courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference**