Astros Starting Rotation Preview

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The starting rotation for the Astros has been set for the Opening Series next week. And the majority of the staff is full of familiar faces.

Arguably the strength of the Astros in 2015, the starting rotation in 2016 developed a negative perception. That is to be expected though when Dallas Keuchel, the 2015 Cy Young winner, and Lance McCullers are out of action for extended lengths of time. Add the ineffectiveness of the other starters throughout random times of the season, and you can easily see why that was the case.

But Houston is on a goal to leave that perception in 2016. The 2017 season offers the team, and the rotation, a fresh chance to prove themselves. On paper, this Astros rotation can be one of the better ones in baseball.

Mar 12, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during a spring training game at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Starter #1: Dallas Keuchel

The Astros starting rotation begins and ends with Dallas Keuchel. It is basically that simple of an equation. Take the 2015 season for example. As you may recall, Keuchel won the Cy Young and posted a 2.91 FIP/5.9 WAR. By no coincidence, the Astros advanced to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

Fast forward to the following season, and the bearded southpaw posted a 3.87 FIP/2.7 WAR. Clearly a step back for Keuchel, who also experienced a troublesome left shoulder injury that hampered him. In turn, the Astros won 84 games and missed the playoffs. You can’t help but wonder if a healthy Keuchel would’ve been the difference in regards to consecutive playoff berths.

Enter 2017 and the Astros are once again banking on Keuchel to regain his “ace” form. To be honest, this isn’t exactly the worst idea ever. If you take Keuchel’s history from 2013-15, the Astros are smart to bet on him. But only if he is healthy and regains a tick or two on his velocity.

In case you may not remember, Keuchel’s velocity at the start of last season was notably lower than his prior April starts earlier seasons. For example, his fastball velocity in 2015 to start the season was 90.19 MPH. The same month the next year saw his fastball velocity drop to 88.04 MPH. Yes, that is not a good sign. On the positive side though, he did increase his velocity each month before his shoulder injury sidelined him. And thus far in Spring Training, his velocity seems to be in a good spot.

Mar 19, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers (43) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during a spring training game at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

Starter #2: Lance McCullers

Talk about Astros injuries last year and Lance McCullers surely comes to mind. He may actually be the first.

Between a late start and premature ending to his 2016 season, we didn’t get to see McCullers pitch as often as we would’ve liked. But injuries happen in life and baseball is no different.

When he was healthy though, McCullers was arguably the team’s best starting pitcher in 2016. In 81 innings pitched, the right-hander sustained a 3.22 ERA/3.00 FIP with a 11.78 K/9. His walks I admit were a bit high at 5.00 BB/9, however, he also maintained the best HR/9 (0.56) on the Astros staff.

If his health permits, McCullers has a good chance to be the team’s best starting pitcher in 2017. And don’t forget that he has been mixing in a changeup to go with his fastball-curveball combination. McCullers, in other words, could just keep getting better.

Mar 13, 2017; Jupiter, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Astros 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports /

Starter #3: Charlie Morton

The popular opinion about the Astros this offseason was the need for another starting pitcher. Names like Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, and Sonny Gray were mentioned as possible fits. Three of those four pitchers may still very well be fits at a later date.

In meantime though, the Astros did acquire a starting pitcher. Charlie Morton just happened to be the guy.

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The 33-year old has pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates Philadelphia Phillies in recent years. In fact, he was in the middle of an interesting development in terms of velocity in Philadelphia before a hamstring injury running the basepaths ended his 2016 season.

The Astros signed Morton to a relatively low risk contract this offseason. In essence, the team is betting on Morton’s small sample size (3.09 FIP in 17.1 innings pitched) translates to long term production. Sure, he wasn’t the sexy signing that everyone was hoping for earlier in the winter. But he could prove to be a heck of a bargain.

Mar 10, 2017; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (59) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during a spring training game at First Data Field. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Starter #4: Joe Musgrove

If there was one pitcher that everyone seem to be universally rooting for in Astros Spring Training, it had to be Joe Musgrove.

While the Astros juggled Collin McHugh‘s workload, this allowed Musgrove another chance to prove himself to the team’s brass. Sure, he impressed in limited innings last year (4.37 ERA/4.48 FIP in 57.2 innings pitched), but a solid Spring Training was needed to cement his spot in the rotation. And Musgrove once again proved himself with a 2.25 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched in Florida.

The Astros will be counting on the 24-year old quite a bit, especially in the early going. As McHugh works his way back into the rotation, Musgrove will have an opportunity to make sure he remains once the veteran returns.

Feb 28, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Fiers (54) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

Starter #5: Mike Fiers

The last spot on the starting rotation goes to Mike Fiers, the veteran pitcher who had an up-and-down 2016 season.

In light of McHugh’s injury, Fiers was automatically thruster back into the starting rotation despite being the presumed favorite to be the long relief pitcher. A la Scott Feldman from last year.

Those plans may have been temporarily derailed, however, Fiers’ still holds value as a starting pitcher. Let’s not forget that he has a combined 60 starts in the past two seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers and Astros. Sure, he may post another season like 2016 (4.48 ERA/4.43 FIP), or he could revert back into 2015 (3.69 ERA/4.03 FIP). I am sure that the Astros would prefer a return closer to his 2015 metrics. As a fifth starter in the rotation though, the leash may be a bit longer than last year.

Of course, his time as a starting pitcher this year is contingent on two factors: Musgrove’s results and McHugh’s health. And only time will tell how this storyline unfolds.

Feb 15, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) fields ground balls during spring training workouts at the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

Starting Rotation Summary

At the end of the day, the Astros starting rotation is banking on health and improvement. Consider this for a moment: the starting rotation in 2016 posted a combined 4.17 FIP. That metric was good for twelfth-best in the league. Sure, it wasn’t a notable rotation, but it wasn’t quite as bad as what others were led to believe. In case you are wondering, the combined ERA was 4.37 last year. That was good for fifteenth-best in the league last year. So right about average.

Next: Astros Spring Notes: Dallas Keuchel Takes a Step Forward

Of course, an average starting rotation won’t likely win a championship or push the team deep into the postseason. But the pieces are there currently that can see this rotation keep this year’s team in contention all season long. Will it happen is a whole other question.

**Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs, MLB.com and Brooks Baseball**

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The Astros 2017 Starting Rotation Preview