Houston Astros: Three pitching prospects who will have big roles in 2017

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Nov 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; West pitcher David Paulino of the Houston Astros during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Jeff Luhnow struck early and added veterans Nori Aoki, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Charlie Morton, and Brian McCann. Last season, the young Houston Astros team struggled to start the season and versus the Rangers. By adding this influx of experience to the team, they hope to avoid prolonged slumps. However, these players could be blocking the development of Astros prospects.

With McCann and Evan Gattis, Max Stassi has little chance to make the team barring an injury. Yulieski Gurriel could make it hard for Tyler White to make the opening day roster. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman will be blocking young infielders for years to come. They didn’t bring Aoki and Reddick onboard to ride the pine.

The pitching staff is just as crowded, with the rotation six deep. There could be an opening for a reliever on the team, A.J. Hinch told us that he prefers 13 pitchers on the staff. Whether the 13th pitcher is Jandel Gustave or Brad Peacock, we don’t know yet.

There is not much room for too many of the young guys. Gurriel had 130 at-bats last year, so he doesn’t qualify. Which three pitching prospects will have the biggest impact in 2017? Good question.

The third most likely prospect to make an impact in 2017.

David Paulino

Paulino is already on the 40-man roster, but his debut was less than spectacular. He showed that he had the stuff, but struggled to strike hitters out. Paulino was acquired by the Astros in the Jose Veras trade while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Now that he is healthy, he is one of the top pitching prospects in the system.

Time to Look into the Astros’ 2017 PECOTA Projections

He was called up at the end of the season and made a spot start, only lasting three innings. He showed great poise, but then fell apart giving up four runs while walking two hitters. However, he seemed to settle down for the rest of his four innings pitched in 2016, not allowing a run. As you can see, seven innings are not enough to judge how good Paulino can be.

Unless Paulino has a powerful showing this Spring, he is ticketed for Triple-A Fresno. While he did pitch seven big league innings, he only pitched 14 innings in Triple-A before his call-up. The Houston Astros could want him to get some more experience at Triple-A. His stay could be short though because he is on the 40-man roster.

He is a tall pitcher who throws hard, in the mid-nineties, with a power breaking pitch. The starting rotation is currently six deep, so there is not a clear opening for him. Should a starting pitcher not be ready for the start of the season, Paulino could be an option. However, outside of a spot-start here and there or an arm needed out of the bullpen could get him on the team.

The second most likely prospect to make an impact in 2017.

MLB: Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays /

Jandel Gustave

Ironically, Gustave has the best chance of making the opening day roster. All offseason we have heard Jeff Luhnow, and A.J. Hinch sing the praises of Gustave. During Hinch’s town hall meeting for season-ticket holders said that he could make the team with his 100 mph fastball. He proved that he belonged in his stint with the Astros at the end of 2016.

After only 15 1/3 innings of big league experience, Gustave looks like he has the stuff needed to stick in the bullpen. He struck out 16 batters in 14 games with a 3.52 ERA. He did walk four batters, but he did have 47 games in Fresno to fine tune his stuff. The Astros could go with a left-handed pitcher instead, but it’s hard to send down a pitcher who can hit 100 mph.

Will he make the team?

Should he pitch well this spring and Hinch decides to go with 13 pitchers, he should be in Houston come opening day. However, he is low in the pecking order behind Ken Giles, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson, Chris Devenski, and Michael Feliz. If he has a Devenski like start to his career, he could earn the trust of Hinch for bigger roles.

Devenski’s value aside, unless you are a closer or the setup man, the 6th inning guy doesn’t get much glory. However, Gustave could earn some saves if Giles struggles at all this season. No matter what, you will here Gustave’s name a lot on Houston Astros’ broadcasts and Talking Stros. The Astros bullpen is one of the teams’ strengths, he will add to it.

The most likely prospect to make an impact in 2017.

Francis Martes

While Martes has not even pitched a game in Triple-A, but the Astros feel strongly enough about Martes’ potential to not trade him. If Peter Gammons was correct, the Astros could have included him in exchange for Chris Archer. But, they refuse to include him in a deal for Jose Quintana. Both Luhnow and Hinch have said that Martes could be up this season.

What does Jim Callis think?

MLB Pipeline thinks that Martes is a top of the rotation pitcher, who ranks as the fifth overall right-handed pitching prospect. Recently, Jim Callis came on Talking Stros to sing praises of Martes, who is drawing comparisons to where Lance McCullers was before his call-up. His delivery has shades of Johnny Cueto to it.

Callis said that Martes had had more success as a starter in the minors like McCullers did. “Francis needs to fine tune the control a little bit and maybe improve the changeup a little bit.” Callis mentioned that he looked better in the Arizona Fall League, calling him one of the top three pitchers there. He can see Martes becoming a number two starter.

When asked if Martes could be wearing an Astros uniform this year, Callis said, “yes I do. Becuase he pretty much conquered Double-A pitching last year after a slow start. He can go to Triple-A and get a month or two there, but he will be ready when needed. I would expect him up by the end of the year.”

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Because of his potential, I think Martes will be called up when a long-term starting pitcher is needed. Gustave may make the opening day roster, but he will only pitch one inning at a time. Paulino has the stuff, but he could use a little more seasoning. But Martes, after getting his feet wet, Martes could be the early favorite for the best rookie on the Astros.

***Stats from Baseball-Reference and MLB Pipeline***