Astros: Who has 2017 Starting Rotation Job Security?

Are Mike Fiers and Collin McHugh the odd men out of the Astros rotation?

Although there is plenty of baseball yet to be played in 2016, it is never too early to talk about job stability for 2017. With the amount of prospect movement to the major league level, some veterans may find themselves on the outside looking in.

The area that will be most affected is in the Astros starting rotation. Three rookies, Joseph Musgrove, Chris Devenski and Michael Feliz, came into their major league debut this year as a starter in the minor leagues. Dallas Keuchel, the 2015 Cy Young Award winner, has had a rough season but has shown that he has a stable job. The Astros also saw a breakout performance from young right-hander Lance McCullers and a comeback performance from veteran Doug Fister.

With already six pitchers vying for five rotation spots, it’s going to come down to the end of this season and Spring Training in 2017 to figure out who is in. However, that leaves two veteran pitchers out of the equation for next season. For McHugh and Fiers, the next one and a half months of this season are crucial in regards to their job security in 2017.

Next: Mike Fiers

Mike Fiers

When Fiers came to the Astros as a part of the infamous Carlos Gomez deal, he had a solid reputation as a starting pitcher in the National League. In his 71 career appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers, he had a 3.66 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP.

Fiers’ stats were inflated after his switch to the American League in 2015.

On paper, his numbers were solid. In 10 appearances with the Astros, Fiers had a 2-1 record with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. However, when you look closer, Fiers gradually became more hittable when he got to the American League. Even though his average hits per nine innings decreased to 6.5 in those ten outings, the fly balls he was used to giving up became to leave the yard with more regularity. In 62.1 innings, he gave up ten home runs and 11.3% of his fly balls went yard.

Will the real Fiers please stand up?

Those numbers came down to earth in 2016. In 24 appearances this year, Fiers has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .276 batting average against. He also has given up 1.6 home runs per nine innings and has given up two or more home runs in one-fourth of his appearances.

This really has to do with the lack of velocity on his pitches. Fiers averages a fastball at 89.5 miles per hour. He throws this fastball 44.3% of the time. As a fly ball pitcher, that is not a good combination.

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Also, opposing hitters, especially right-handed, have been taking advantage of the short porch in left field against Fiers. With 47.2% of batted ball being pulled against Fiers, right-handed hitters have hit 14 home runs in 75.1 innings of work against him. Also, his WHIP raises 22 points against right-handers.

With those numbers and with a bunch of young guys behind him to take his spot, Fiers may not be in the starting rotation much longer unless he pulls something miraculous in the next month and a half. Also, without movement on a fastball that tops out in the low nineties, his fastball does not become less hittable in the bullpen.

Coming into arbitration as a 31-year-old soft-tossing right-hander, Fiers may not and perhaps should not be on the Astros roster after the 2016 season.

Next: Collin McHugh