Houston Astros: Home Opener Series Preview

It’s That Time, Astros Fans. The Home Opening Series is Here

The Astros play their first game in Houston this season against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Kansas City Royals.  Not only did the Royals eliminate Houston, they went on to be the World Series champions.  It’s interesting how the Astros 2016 schedule generated early matchups with both of their 2015 playoff opponents.  The Astros went 1-2 in both New York and Milwaukee, and now return home to Minute Maid Park on Monday night, to try to win their first series of the season.

In three of four losses this year, starting pitching has been to blame. Collin McHugh‘s 135.00 ERA speaks for itself, after only getting one out against the Yankees. Mike Fiers and Scott Feldman gave up a run per inning with Fiers not taking advantage of ample run support. Dallas Keuchel has delivered to two quality starts to begin the year, but in both he uncharacteristically struggled with his command.

Doug Fister went five innings, giving up three runs and striking out six Brewers hitters to notch his first victory as an Astro. The bullpen has been a bit shaky, with Ken Giles and Josh Fields both having some bad outings, but Luke Gregerson and Will Harris have done well with Gregerson successfully both save opportunities presented to him this year.

The Houston lineup has definitely not been an issue, scoring 28 runs in six games, and they were possibly on the brink of scoring more runs in the first game against Milwaukee if not for a “walk-off” double play call on a Colby Rasmus slide at second to end the game. This ended a 4-run rally in the ninth, which caused manager A.J. Hinch to voice his opinion on the new rule.

“It was interpreted right, but the rule needs clarification because I think it’s wrong,” Hinch said. “Especially when you’re asking athletes to compete at the highest level as fast as they can in last-minute decisions. It is a joke we lost the game based on that when there wasn’t intent or contact. It was a baseball slide.” – http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/A-J-Hinch-seeks-clarification-on-rule-that-led-7238292.php

Carlos Correa, Preston Tucker, and Tyler White are all hitting above .300, with White hitting an absurd .556, truly shocking the baseball world, and quickly becoming the most sought after player on fantasy league waiver wires.  Both Correa and Rasmus have already delivered multi-home run games.  The offense was held to its lowest output in yesterday’s rubber match versus Milwaukee, posting only two runs on three hits.

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The Kansas City Royals also had an ironic opening day opponent, as they faced off against the New York Mets, whom the defeated in the World Series.  The Royals split the two game series, and then swept the Minnesota Twins at home, and are coming into Houston with a three game winning streak.

The Royals were not given much respect by the oddsmakers to repeat as world champions, and thus far it would appear they are using that to their advantage.  Their pitching staff as a while has gotten off to a good start.  The rotation, led by Edinson Volquez has held opponents to two runs or less in all starts this season, and the bullpen, minus Joakim Soria, have yet to give up a run.

The Royals offense has provided enough runs for the pitching performances to compile a 4-1 record thus far.  No standout stats to show for this group yet, but they form a solid lineup with a mesh of contact, power, and speed.  Their studs are Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, and Lorenzo Cain.  Cain has the best statistical history against current Houston pitchers with a .333 batting average and two home runs off of Keuchel.  Catcher Salvador Perez also has had success against the Astros, belting two postseason home runs in last year’s ALDS.

This should be an action packed series full of emotion as Houston was very close to eliminating Kansas City last year, but was unsuccessful as the bullpen faltered in game 4, allowing the Royals to close out the series at home in Game 5.  Houston won the regular season series last year 4-2.

Next: Astros vs. Royals: Game 1

GAME 1 – Chris Young (0-1, 3.60) vs Collin McHugh (0-1, 135.00)

The 36-year old veteran Young enters his second season with the Royals. The journeyman starter went 11-6 last year with a 3.06 ERA.  He started the second game of the season and earned a tough loss, only giving up two earned runs in five innings.  Young doesn’t have amazing pitching talents, but he consistently has gotten the job done.  His mainly uses a fastball/slider with an occasional changeup.

His fastball averages 87 mph and he induces a ton of fly ball outs, which one would think to be troublesome at Minute Maid Park. His last start in Houston was in September 2014, where he got shelled for seven runs in three innings, and in three lifetime appearances at MMP, he has allowed 8 home runs in 17 innings pitched. Conversely, current Astros are only hitting .158 versus Young.

It would be in Collin McHugh’s best interest to erase his memory from his recent trip to New York. He got absolutely demolished by the Yankee lineup and gave 6 runs (5 earned), managing to record only one out, before being replaced. McHugh has had success against the Kansas City lineup, so a bounce-back outing could be in store. He is 2-1 against KC, including last year’s postseason starts. Alex Gordon has fared well against McHugh, batting .429, and Morales also hit two postseason home runs.

McHugh has pitched slightly better at home than on the road, and he will need make adjustments on his command, as well as getting more action on his cutter.  He doesn’t throw extremely hard, and although he has a good curveball, it doesn’t have near the same effect if his fastballs have no life on them.  McHugh is a fiery competitor, and will look to put the disaster in New York behind him on Monday night.

Prediction:  Astros 6 – Royals 4

Next: Astros vs. Royals Game 2

GAME 3 – Yordano Ventura (0-0, 3.60) vs Scott Feldman (0-1, 9.00)

Ventura is an exciting young pitching prospect for the Royals.  He features a mid-90’s fastball along with a curve and a change-up. Last year he posted 3 starts with 11 strikeouts, and in his first start of the season, he struck out six Twins batters through five innings, not earning a decision. He also walked six batters, and such has been the only knock against him, along with his demeanor on the bump. The Astros have had success against Ventura, namely Correa and Jason Castro. Castro has struggled with the bat so far this year, so this would be as good as opportunity as any to get something started offensively.

Scott Feldman had a short first outing of the season in Milwaukee, only going four innings and giving up four runs. He, like the other Astro starters, struggled with his control, walking three batters, and giving up two home runs. Feldman has got to eliminate the walks, and throw is sinker more effectively.

Both home runs he gave up were on sinkers that didn’t sink. He is also in competition with Doug Fister to see who will be the number five starter once Lance McCullers returns, so he has added incentive to do well in this spot. Feldman has history with many of the Royals batters, with Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain having the most success.

Royals 5 – Astros 2

Season Record (Predictions) – 2-4

Next: Astros Blast: Time to Come Home

For the Astros to stop the Kansas City winning streak, they will have to get better performances from their starting pitching.  Offensively, George Springer needs to pick it up, and anything from Jason Castro will be a plus.  Evan Gattis has a chance of making his season debut against the Royals as well.