Houston Astros: Preview of Opening Series in New York

GAME 1 – Dallas Keuchel vs. Masahiro Tanaka

Yes, this is a rematch of the AL Wild Card duel in which Keuchel pitched six shutout innings, and both Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez hit home runs off the Yankee ace, to help defeat New York 3-0 and move on to the ALDS.  Keuchel went on win the Cy Young award and looks to continue his dominance. Current New York hitters have a career .233 average versus Keuchel, with Beltran doing the most damage (9 AB, .444, 1 HR).

Hitters like Rodriguez, Ellsbury, Teixeira, and Headley have all struggled against the award-winning southpaw, and Castro has yet to get a hit off Keuchel in five career at-bats. The Yankees lineup provides a good mixture of right-handed, left-handed, and switch batters, so Keuchel will again need to pitch to his strength and locate fastballs and offspeed pitches to multiple corners and cold zones. Keuchel has had a great spring and recently held the Phillies scoreless over seven innings.

Tanaka had off-season elbow surgery to remove bone spurs and has caused some speculation. Though spring numbers are for the most part irrelevant, he has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild stated, “I think some of this stuff starts with going back to last spring. All the talk (has been) about his arm and just trying to protect it and not getting it as much as trying to make sure he’s healthy. Beyond that, you want to be healthy, but you want to be healthy in the context of throwing the ball the way you can and turning the ball loose the way you can. I think that’s where were are right now.” http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-insider-rothschild-don-worry-tanaka-article-1.2577136 Tanaka, when on point, is an ace with a nasty arsenal of pitches, so it will be interesting to see how Tanaka starts off the season.

Next: GAME 2 – Collin McHugh vs Michael Pineda

GAME 2 – Collin McHugh vs. Michael Pineda

Collin McHugh holds Yankees hitters to an even lower combined batting average of .143.  Last year’s 19 game winner for Houston looks to build off an incredible second half of the season. Last season, pre-All Star break, McHugh was 9-5 with a 4.50 ERA, after the All-Star break he caught fire, going 10-2 with a 3.11 ERA. If McHugh’s breaking ball is on, and can throw it for strikes, he can make quick work of the best lineups in baseball. McHugh started two games against New York last year, earning wins in both and giving up only 3 earned runs in 14.1 innings.

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Michael Pineda is a 27-year-old pitcher out of the Dominican Republic. He has shown some electric talent, but thus far has also proved to be very inconsistent, which is common among young pitchers. Pineda was the polar opposite to McHugh as he did well in the first half of the season with a 3.64 ERA, and a poor 5.80 ERA after the break. This spring he has been untouchable, so if the trend continues, we could be in for a pitcher’s duel for game two.

Next: GAME 3 – Mike Fiers vs Luis Severino/TBA

GAME 3 – Mike Fiers vs Luis Severino/TBA

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
• Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

Mike Fiers did very well for the Astros after Houston traded for him and Carlos Gomez. Fiers’ first outing was out of the bullpen, and it was a rough one, but he regained his composure the rest of the way and even threw a no-hitter against the Dodgers lineup. It is a good sign for him that he is the number three starter, at the beginning of spring, he was talked about as being in competition for the last rotation spot. Lance McCullers will jump him in the rotation when he returns from injury, but this will be a nice spot for Fiers to see what he can do in New York for the opening series.

Nathan Eovaldi enters his second season as a Yankee. Last year he compiled a fantastic record of 14-3, but his ERA/WHIP was 4.20/1.45. He definitely benefitted from run support, but will need to pitch more effectively if he is to maintain his winning percentage. Eovaldi did fare much better at Yankee Stadium where his ERA was 3.22. He did start off the spring with a groin injury, but has recovered and pitched well over a few outings. Last year, Eovaldi struck out 13 Astros in 14 innings pitched. Carlos Gomez and Carlos Correa have been two Astros to fare well versus Eovaldi, both hitting over .300 against him.

Next: KEY TO THE SERIES

KEY TO THE SERIES

The big key for any team playing the Yankees this year will be to get ahead of them early, and not play from behind. When New York is at full strength in their bullpen, Betances-Miller-Chapman is arguably the best 7-8-9 inning combination in baseball. Not having Chapman will help the Astros’ causes, but even just Betances and Miller will be tough.

Next: Houston Astros Acquire Catcher Erik Kratz for Dan Straily

Expect Houston to play just as aggressively as last season offensively, and Keuchel, McHugh, and Fiers to continue where they left off. It will definitely be fun to see what White can do in his first major league action, in Yankee Stadium, and also to watch the young Eovaldi pitch. This writer’s prediction is that the Astros take the first two games, but Eovaldi deals in game three for a Yankees victory.

**Stats courtesy of MLB.com**