Houston Astros Spring Training: The Battle for Third Base

LUIS VALBUENA

Luis Valbuena hit a career-high 25 home runs in his first season with the Astros. He struggled a bit in the second half, ending the season with only three hits in 17 playoff plate appearances.

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The Astros need left-handed bats in their lineup, and Valbuena’s bizarrely fascinating power ratio makes him a particular threat in ballparks that favor left-handed hitters.

Because of his impending free agency, performance will drive his presence in an Astros lineup looking to win it all in 2016. Barring an otherworldly breakout, all signs point to Valbuena signing elsewhere after 2016.

It’s a win-win for the Astros. A solid 2016 from Valbuena could boost a playoff run and potentially fetch and a compensation pick. But there is little room for error, as significant struggles could see Valbuena reduced to a platoon or even a bench role.

Next: Colin Moran

COLIN MORAN

Colin Moran was once-upon-a-time a name tied to the Astros’ 2013 first overall pick. With Mark Appel now with the Phillies and Kris Bryant leading the charge for the Cubs, Moran’s potential emergence could be a great success story and sigh of relief for the Astros.

Offensively, Moran is a breath of fresh air: a contact hitter actively refining his patience and cutting back on strikeouts. However, Moran’s defense could be his biggest deterrent. His limited defensive range could be problematic for the team that led the league in defensive shifts in 2015.

But with Valbuena presumably on the way out and a host of options at 3B, Moran could get a shot in 2016. However, he is not on the 40-man roster, and it would be surprising to see them use their last spot on Moran.

Next: Tyler White

TYLER WHITE

As we covered earlier in this series, Tyler White is one of many players cursed by the Astros’ sudden logjam of prospects coming off of strong seasons in the minors.

White is only 25 and opened eyes with his bat and patience.  As an added bonus, White has played 165 at 3B versus 82 at 1B over three seasons.

But he started 25 games at 1B after his call-up to Triple-A Fresno as doubts about his defensive ability took fruition. His defense will work against him, but not as much as the inevitable arrival of A.J. Reed.

Despite his previous experience, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow firmly stated that White will not play at third. Evan Gattis‘ hernia surgery could create more playing time for White at DH, which may ultimately be where he sticks.

Next: Matt Duffy

MATT DUFFY

Matt Duffy is the reigning Pacific Coast League MVP, can play both 3B and 1B, and has a longer professional track record than Moran or White. He is 26, right-handed, and currently on the 40-man roster, which gives him a distinct advantage over the other candidates.

Drafted 610th overall in the 20th round of the 2011 MLB Draft, Duffy is a career .293 hitter with 80 home runs over MiLB five seasons. He struck out a career-best 92 times over 498 at-bats last year, down from 106 in 2012, 102 in 2013, and 106 in 2014. His 49 walks in 2015 were a career-high as well.

He slashed .294/.266/.484 with 144 hits, 20 HRs, and 104 RBIs at Triple-A Fresno. He also collected three hits in his nine plate appearances after being called up to the Astros on September 14 of last year.

Duffy notched his stellar 2015 without ever appearing on a top list or even an Astros top 10 prospects list. He is a testament to the Astros’ scouting ability and the ability of a player to grow and exceed expectations.

The backup third baseman’s job is his to lose, but keep an eye on Duffy if Valbuena struggles.

Next: J.D. Davis

J.D. DAVIS

As top prospect lists and Spring Training previews continue to roll out, a question we’ve heard a lot lately is, “What about J.D. Davis?”

Taken out of Cal State-Fullerton 75th overall in the 2014 draft, the potential third-baseman-of-the-future has narrowly missed some top prospect lists. Baseball America put him 15th on the Astros’ 2015 list, and even after the Carlos Gomez, Scott Kazmir, and Ken Giles trades, Davis narrowly missed Baseball America’s 2016 Top 10 Astros Prospects list.  The sudden abundance of third base prospects at Triple A and Double A do not exactly help his case either.

Davis had a great season with Class A Lancaster that saw him hit 26 home runs, drive in 101 runs, and slash .289/.370/.520 in 120 games. Davis has a plus arm but, not unlike many of the Astros’ third base prospects, scouts are skeptical of his defensive ability. And while his bat is considered his best tool, the California League is a very hitter-friendly environment.

Some older and more experienced prospects are already vying for third base at the big league level. In addition to his limited minor league experience, Davis will turn only 23 in April. The Astros do not benefit from prematurely rushing Davis to the Majors.

Despite Davis getting a Spring Training invite, the odds are heavily not in his favor. Expect him to debut in 2017 once the dust settles at third base.

Next: Our Prediction

OUR PREDICTION

Valbuena’s presence as a decent-fielding, left-handed-hitting home-run threat in a lineup loaded with righties is more than enough to maintain his starting spot.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
• Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

However, unless Valbuena exceeds all expectations, the Astros do not stand to gain anything from his increased playing time. White is no longer part of the equation, and it would be a surprise to everyone to see Davis this soon.

Duffy has backup third baseman and a bench spot locked down unless he just cannot get it together in Spring Training. Moran has a chance as well though it is discernibly lower than Duffy’s. But Duffy has the edge due to his positional flexibility and current presence on the 40-man roster.

Next: Astros Spring Training: First Base Notes with A.J. Reed’s Arrival

Given Valbuena’s ability to hit righties and expiring contract, we expect a platoon of Valbuena and Duffy to develop early in the season. Thankfully, the Astros have a treasure trove of backup plans in case Plan A falls apart.

**Stats from Baseball-Reference**