Astros Prospects: Talking Stros w/ JJ Cooper, Defends Martes over Bregman

CTH/TexSR: What factors go into ranking Martes ahead of Bregman?

Cooper: There are a couple of things that we are trying to do, to give you a little background, I have been with Baseball America for 14 years now, I have ranked the top-30 for the past 12 years. We are looking at long-term impact, in an ideal world, I want my write-up and the ranking to be accurate, but that’s not always going to work out. Every once in a while you get a perfect one, like my David Wright write-up in the 2004 handbook. I projected that Wright would be an above average third baseman who hit .300 with 20 homers with .360 on-base percentage with a lot of doubles. However, I ranked him third behind Kaz Matsui, so that negates the good write-up.

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Let’s compare Martes and Bregman, impact wise, I think that Martes gets a pretty significant edge. I you say, when in doubt, what is Bregman going to be? Bregman most likely will be a very productive big leaguer, but he will not be like Carlos Correa, there are not many Correa’s out there. If everything works out to a reasonable level, he will hit for average, could stay at shortstop (maybe not with Houston), a reliable defender but not rangey one, some power (maybe 10-15 homers), and a solid on-base guy. That’s the realistic upside for Bregman.

Let’s compare that to Martes, he has two plus pitches that really could be weapons for him with a third pitch that is coming along that could be an average offering. Martes does not have significant control troubles and at this point there are some questions about durability, you don’t have a long track record on that. There is nothing in his delivery to have any concerns about, he’s a big body guy who could have durability issues, but stuff-wise, that’s a top of the rotation starter. Comparing those two players, I would say that makes him more valuable. You could look at WAR, but I tend to think along the lines of what would rational teams pay to sign him.

The you look at the likelihood of them reaching those ceilings; I think Bregman is the safest guy in the top 10, even though he was just drafted. I would be stunned if Bregman is not a very useful major leaguer; he has a long track record at LSU, he did everything you would expect in Low-A. The only complaint that I have heard about him is that he works so hard, you have to tell him at times to slow it down a little, it’s a long season. That type of work ethic is a good thing to have, similar to Correa’s work ethic. Martes has a pretty high floor as well because at least he could be that plus two-pitch reliever barring injuries.

If you were talking trade, I think the other team would ask for Martes before they ask for Bregman, so that’s a point for Martes. If you are talking ultimate impact, I would have to give that point to Martes over Bregman. If you are talking about the most likely role, you could give that edge to Bregman. Put it all together that puts Martes second and Bregman third.

Next: What about another hidden gem the Astros found?

CTH/TexSR: What can you tell us about another hidden gem the Astros found in David Paulino?

Cooper: Paulino, we could be talking about him this time next year in the same terms as Martes. He’s a little further away, he has a little more injury history that you have to be concerned about. But again, you are talking about him having some really special stuff, his stuff could end up being better than Martes. Everything is there, he has the fastball, he has the potential with the breaking ball, he has the stuff there to be a frontline starter.

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When you are talking about risks with Paulino, that’s one of the reasons that the Astros got him, he didn’t pitch the season the Astros traded for him. Again, talk about the great pickup, the got him after he essentially had done nothing at the time they traded for him. It’s already the Paulino trade, it is not the Jose Veras or Danry Vazquez trade anymore, it’s the David Paulino trade.

To be honest, he ranked seventh before the Mark Appel trade, who ranked eighth. I actually felt comfortable about the Astros trading Appel; I ran it by some guys. Appel had the more certainty of the two, but there is a decent chance that the Astros would have preferred to trade Appel than Paulino.

Next: Who's next at catcher?

CTH/TexSR: If Jason Castro does not re-sign, is there a catcher in the system who could step in and be the everyday guy?

Cooper: I don’t know if there is an everyday guy, when it came down to it, they had a choice to protect Alfredo Gonzalez or Roberto Pena, the Astros protected Gonzalez, they put him on the 40-man roster. Pena made it through the Rule V draft without being selected, which was a surprise to me. I don’t think that Pena is anything more than a backup catcher, but the Diamondbacks carried Oscar Hernandez all season in the backup role last year out of Low-A ball. They would have gotten more value in 2016 should they have taken Pena in the Rule V draft because of his defense.

I think that Gonzalez is a better framer and I think he has a little more offensive upside. I think there is a lot of depth at the catcher position, I also like Garrett Stubbs, who is a small undersized catcher, but had a good career at Southern Cal and had a good debut in professional ball. Jamie Ritchie is another guy, there are some great potential backup catchers there, I would be surprised if the Astros didn’t have a couple guys who have a successful big league career. I don’t see any as a starter, unless Gonzalez, who took a big step in 2015, makes another big step forward next year.

Stassi, you know what you are going to get from him, he will hit for some power, his average with his stint with the Astros last year was a little flukey. I think Stassi will hit .200 or .220 with some power, but that’s not an everyday catcher. I think the Astros will have to make a move or sign someone if Castro does not return for 2017, or they will piece it together.

Next: What about the shortstop we got from the Phillies?

CTH/TexSR: What about the shortstop we got from the Phillies, Jonathan Arauz?

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Cooper: You have to be interested in him partially because the Astros have had such an impressive run, this is what they do, they get these low-level rookie ball type of guys, and they turn into Martes. We had Arauz number 21 on our Phillies list, we like him, potential future big league regular, but he is a long long away from possibly doing that. He is a young Venezuelan shortstop, not a lot of power, switch hitter with a line drive bat, with some defensive ability there.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he was ready to make the jump to the New York-Penn League this year, maybe makes Quad Cities as a 17-year-old. Something very interesting there, but on the Astros list, I wouldn’t slot him any higher than the mid 20’s range at best because it’s a pretty deep system.

Next: Battle at Third Base

CTH/TexSR: I know Colin Moran had a great second half last year, but who get’s the third base role between Moran and J.D. Davis?

Cooper: We are based in North Carolina, so we saw a lot of Moran in college. We have Moran ranked 8th and Davis a little further down at 13th after the Ken Giles trade. We have Moran ranked higher, with that being said, I’m not completely sold on Moran being and everyday third baseman defensively. You have to know what you are looking for, has a really good arm, but the range will be limited. He can hit a lot of doubles and occasionally find some home runs and hit for a decent average to go with it; I would call it a stretch to call him an average third baseman defensively.

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I think Davis has the better full toolset to be an everyday guy, especially defensively. I think he has a little more power, but there is a little more risk in the bat. They are pretty close, so if you are talking about which one could be the guy, Moran has the edge because he is a little further along. Along those lines, I don’t think that Tyler White can be a big league third baseman, I think he can hit, but his defense is questionable. I don’t think any of these guys are a certainty to play third, and we don’t know what’s going to happen with Bregman. I do know that it would be hard for Bregman to play second or shortstop, I can see Bregman playing third, so he is another guy to fit into the puzzle.

I don’t think any of these guys are a certainty to play third, and we don’t know what’s going to happen with Bregman. I do know that it would be hard for Bregman to play second or shortstop, I can see Bregman playing third, so he is another guy to fit into the puzzle.

Next: Houston Astros: Talking Stros with Jon Kemmer (Interview)

Thanks to JJ Cooper for coming on Talking Stros, there is a lot more that Cooper talked about, but I’ll let you listen to the podcast version of our show. With the technical issues, the podcast starts after a few questions with Cooper. One thing that I wanted to point out that one of the prospects that Cooper likes is Jon Kemmer, “not because he will be a superstar, but that guy has hit everywhere he has gone. Compare him to a guy like White, it’s a little easier to see Kemmer fitting because he is an outfielder.”