2016 Houston Astros: 3 Bold Predictions for the New Season

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Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Gattis (11) takes batting practice before game five of the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

You, a grizzled veteran of online and traditional sports commentary, know this. In these columns, some moderately informed analyst takes the conventional wisdom and organizes it neatly, then claims the aggregation of these truths speaks to his own perception. When he’s wrong — as most predictions are — he either ducks accountability by never referencing his predictions again or claims that everyone felt this way, calling into question what the purpose of his writing was in the first place.

The predictions in this piece will not support the conventional wisdom. That said, they are also not shock value predictions. I believe them, and will lay out my case for each. They are simply areas where my own insight into the Astros leads me to a fairly unique conclusion. Some are optimistic, others are pessimistic.

Next: Astros bold prediction #1

George Springer will be the Astros’ best position player, an All-Star, and a top 10 MVP finisher.

Oct 11, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Springer (4) hits a double against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning in game three of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Within the modern star dynamics of the Houston Astros, Springer is starting to feel like a Best Supporting Actor nominee. In 2014, Jose Altuve‘s batting title and Dallas Keuchel‘s breakout stole his thunder. In 2015, Carlos Correa‘s Rookie of the Year campaign did the same. Springer played well each season but capped his own buzz with two significant injuries costing him months at a time.

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As a prospect, Springer had a reputation as a high-impact talent with major strikeout issues. An excellent FanGraphs piece on Wednesday from Jeff Sullivan looks at the quiet transformation in Springer’s contact rate in 2015, as he became a more contact-oriented player on pitches down in the zone, and boosted his line drive rate in the process. Those improvements have yet to pay dividends in his top-line numbers, but the improvement is seemingly already baked in for 2016.

Even if we don’t count those chickens, the reality of Springer’s value should be obvious. In 2015, at age 25, he posted a 3.8 bWAR in 102 games, the result of being an on-base machine, a superb baserunner, and an above-average defensive outfielder. For comparison’s sake, Correa had a similar bWAR (4.1) in a similar number of games (99). They were equally valuable players. And despite playing in 154 games — 50% more than Springer and Correa — the beloved Altuve posted only a 4.5 bWAR, less than one win of added value in his additional 50-55 games.

All of that is to say there’s a decent chance Springer was already the most valuable player in the Houston lineup — when he played. He was certainly better than Altuve. His costly broken wrist was a fluke injury, and I am not ready to tag him as injury prone though it is admittedly a fair concern. Assuming he’s healthy, however, look for Springer to put up an All-Star appearance and be the team’s MVP.

Next: Astros bold prediction #2

Jon Singleton will outhit Evan Gattis.

Jul 17, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Singleton (21) hits a single during the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

There are few players more overrated by their home market fans than ol’ Triples Gattis was for most of 2015. The friendly lumberjack with the prodigious power is a natural fit for the casual, blue-collar Houston baseball fan. As a testament to this, the Astros’ marketing department rewarded Gattis in September with his own Bobblehead day at Minute Maid Park.

But, even before a playoff swoon that soured some fans, Gattis stunk in 2015. His .285 on-base percentage and 0.5 bWAR over 604 plate appearances hint at a player not pulling his weight for a title contender. His 4-for-23 post-season with no walks or extra-base hits is too small of a sample to penalize Gattis independent of his larger body of work. But that’s the point. The larger body of work was not any good, either.

It’s one thing to say a team’s designated hitter is a replacement-level player: capable of being matched by the average team’s hypothetical competent Triple-A filler. It is another thing to have an actual replacement on hand.

As a minor-leaguer, Singleton has been a tremendous hitter against right-handed pitching. In 2015, he hit .290/.414/.595 in the PCL vs. right-handed pitching, an OPS over 1.000. He struggled mightily against lefties, as many left-handed sluggers do, but he was simply too good for the right-handed pitching he was facing.

The Astros lineup is anchored by four very good right-handed hitters who profile to hit in the top five or six — Springer, Altuve, Correa and Carlos Gomez. Beyond that core are Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena and Jason Castro, the team’s returning left-handed regulars. The trio all slot in as back-of-the-order hitters (though Valbuena and Rasmus each took a turn in 2015 in the heart of the order to break up the string of righties).

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Gattis, a free-swinging right-handed hitter in a lineup loaded with them, is a redundant asset. All of his most distinctive traits — aggression, raw power, a low walk rate — are held by other players who are clearly superior to him overall. To balance the lineup and make themselves harder to attack in late innings and post-season series, the Astros need patient left-handed hitters around their core, not another undisciplined right-handed bat.

Because of service time concerns with A.J. Reed, both Singleton and Gattis should start 2015 with at least semi-regular at-bats. Personally, I am skeptical that A.J. Hinch truly wants to play Singleton (if he did, Chris Carter, Gattis, and Valbuena would not have been extended such patience by the manager in 2015). I assume Singleton has a short leash, and Gattis will be given the meaningless veteran respect his past performance does not warrant. I don’t have the access or insight to understand the clubhouse politics and/or data behind that suspicion. It is merely my own instinct.

Meanwhile, fans are also down on Singleton. His 2014 rookie audition was a flop, and his marijuana revelation and open-button uniform rub the emotional armchair-psychologist subset of the fanbase the wrong way. (That’s the polite way of describing that cohort.)

But the overall body of evidence we have on the two players suggests Singleton is both a better hitter and a stronger fit for this team. I believe he puts up a strong April, particularly against right-handed pitching, and forces Hinch’s hand. When Reed arrives to boost the 1B/DH mix, the rookie takes most of Gattis’s playing time, not Singleton’s.

Next: Astros bold statement #3

Ken Giles will make a huge impact — but only if he’s used right.

Sep 8, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Giles (53) and catcher Cameron Rupp (29) celebrate a victory against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

The 2015 Astros were 70-5 when leading after seven innings, and 73-1 when leading after eight. These numbers are very good, but not uncommon for good teams who have competent closers, which Luke Gregerson was. As Yankees GM Brian Cashman noted after his similarly-successful bullpen added Aroldis Chapman — it’s hard to improve on those numbers.

But look deeper. Maybe the Astros can’t get any better at protecting leads, but what was their record when they were tied after seven innings? A horrific 8-17. Nine games under, a shocking outlier for a playoff team.

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The pressure now falls on Hinch. If he uses his bullpen as he did in 2015, when his third and fourth best relievers (or worse, Chad Qualls) would often pitch in the eighth and ninth innings of ties, then having a star “closer” will mean very little. The truth is that any halfway decent pitcher will convert the overwhelming majority of one-inning save chances as defined in the rulebook. But if Hinch is willing to learn from his team’s horrific failure to win even one-third of their eighth inning ties in 2015, he will use Giles in unconventional ways to maximize his impact.

Does Hinch want to manage like a competent paint-by-numbers conservative with an effective touch in the clubhouse — basically a low-impact Joe Torre — or is he a metric-based progressive like his boss? The answer to that question will go a long way to deciding how much value the Astros get out of Giles, their flashy and costly new toy. Giles gives Hinch a tremendous tool for growth and improvement, and we are about to find out if he’s inclined to use it.

Next: Houston Astros: Why A.J. Reed needs to be at first base on Opening Day

Like any good prediction column, it ends with a hedge.

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Houston Astros: 3 Bold Predictions for the 2016 Season

Houston Astros: Most formal pre-season sports predictions are lame.

George Springer will be the Astros’ best position player, an All-Star, and a top 10 MVP finisher.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

Jon Singleton will outhit Evan Gattis.

Ken Giles will make a huge impact — but only if he’s used right.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

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