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Houston Astros: 2016 ZiPS Projections
What are these ZiPS Projections, and how do They Help Astros Fans Project the 2016 Season?
As the winter deals are dying down (we think), the focus of the baseball community turns towards Spring Training 2016. In this time, fans love to look through projections to figure out how their particular team will do in the upcoming year before it happens.
Created by Dan Szymborkski, ZiPS, which stands for the sZymborski Projection System, is the new fad in projection data put out by Fan Graphs that analyzes the potential of every MLB team. Szymborski uses his own calculation on Wins Above Replacement (zWAR) and other stats based on position to predict how a particular player will do this next season. Last week, it was the Astros turn as their ZiPS projections were released.
Before we get into the data put out by these projections, ZiPS are, according to a description by Fan Graphs, “computer based projections of performance”. Even though many of the players listed will not make it to the big league level in 2016, the projections for these players are based on what they would do at the big league level.
So, many of these Astros listed, like Alex Bregman or Derek Fisher, with Major League projections attached to them, may exceed those numbers based on what level they will be in in the minors. Also, the statistics of players who are injured or are out for a significant amount of time during the season is not calculated. With all of the logistics explained, here is how the Astros faired.
Next: Astros Offense Projections
The Astros Slugged a Ton of Home Runs Last Season, but how do they Project for 2016 in Long Balls and Other Stats according to ZiPS?
The Astros offensively are pretty even when it comes to zWAR. All of the Astros positions are at around 3 wins except designated hitter (Evan Gattis with 1), first base (Jonathan Singleton with 1), second base (José Altuve with 4.2) and shortstop (Carlos Correa with 4.9).
To start with the most sure thing in the Astros lineup next season, Correa is projected for a 20 home run, 20 stolen base season with 25 and 23 respectively. He is also projected to lead the club in isolated power average, which calculates how often a particular player hits for extra bases, and slugging percentage with .219 and .492 respectively. With Correa going into only his age 21 season, this young star is the face of this offense and has the projections to keep it that way.
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These projections show position battles and potential platoon situations in left field and third base. Left field, currently held by Colby Rasmus and Jake Marisnick, have a combined 3.0 zWAR with Marisnick as the better defensive choice.
Luis Valbuena and Marwin Gonzalez fill up the hole at third base. With the utility ability that Marwin has, Valbuena will most likely occupy that third base spot with a projected 18 home runs and .238 batting average.
The two positions with the lowest zWAR happen to be at the positions with the least defensive value. At first base, Singleton is projected to hit 22 home runs, bring in 68 RBIs and hit a measly .216. However, Singleton is not the only option at first base, as we will see later on.
According to these projections, this offense should be a solid force in the AL West in 2016.
Next: Astros Pitching Projections
Will Dallas Keuchel Continue to Dominate in 2016? Let’s Examine what ZiPS Thinks. Here’s a Look at Astros Pitcher Projections
As starting pitching goes, the first four spots are set in stone. The combined zWAR for the Astros next season is projected to be at 14 wins. The first two, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, who combined for a 10 WAR last season, and projected for a bit of a decline with a 4.5 zWAR for Keuchel and a 3.1 zWAR for this next season.
For Keuchel, coming off a 2015 AL Cy Young Award, is projected to record 177 strikeouts with a 3.29 earned run average (ERA) and a 3.28 fielding independent pitching average (FIP). The ERA is projected based off of the AL having a 3.93 ERA.
Lance McCullers, occupying that third spot in the rotation, is projected to throw 155 strikeouts in 150.2 innings with a 3.64 ERA. The last two spots, with trades and free agents signings still up in the air, are currently Mike Fiers, with a projected 4.17 ERA and 4.04 FIP, and Scott Feldman with a 4.50 ERA and only a 0.8 WAR.
Now the bullpen is headlined by the one of the newest Astros, hard-throwing right-hander Ken Giles. According to these projections, only two pitchers in baseball, Wade Davis and Aroldis Chapman, have received better FIP- numbers than Giles. Giles, with a projected 2.75 ERA and 87 strikeouts, is projected to have a 1.3 zWAR. As for the rest of the bullpen, with names such as Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, and Will Harris, their combined zWAR is at 4 games.
Next: Astros Prospect Projections
How Bright is the Astros Future According to ZiPS?
The future is bright for this Astros farm system. This is especially shown in the projections for first baseman and the fourth best prospect in the Astros system according to MLB.com, A.J. Reed.
Projected to be the fifth best hitter in the Astros hitter in 2016, Reed has a zWAR of 2.6 and is projected to hit 26 home runs and drive in 86 RBIs. Remember, these stats are projected at the major league level. If Reed performs at this level or at a higher level in the minors, he should take the first base job from Singleton in no time.
As for the other prospects, catcher Tyler Heineman is projected to have the second highest defensive rating in these projections to Carlos Gomez and the number one prospect in the Astros system Alex Bregman is second on the list of prospects with a zWAR of 1.3. As for pitching, potential bullpen piece James Hoyt takes that top spot with a zWAR of 0.4 and ERA of 3.58.
Next: Houston Astros: Rumors and Offseason Updates
These players are on the verge of helping the Astros out at the Major League level and these projections show that.