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Houston Astros: Top Four Players to Protect in Rule V Draft

By Eric Huysman |
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The Houston Astros want to avoid mistakes with Rule V

Joe Musgrove Photo Credit by Tammy Tucker

The Houston Astros have something that most teams want, which is an overabundance of minor league talent. Many teams are looking at the Astros as a possible prospect infusion into through trades, but important decisions will have to be made by Friday to prevent teams from stealing talent away. The deadline to protect players from the annual Rule V draft is today at 11:59 EST time and the Astros 40-man roster sits at 34 players following yesterday’s moves. That gives the Astros flexibility to protect 3-4 of the 11 Rule V draft eligible players.

The Astros lead the league with the 11 players who are eligible for the Rule V draft. The team(s) most prospects eligible are the Twins, Cardinals, Royals, and Marlins all tied at eight apiece. To put it another way, about 37% of the Astros top 30 prospects are eligible to be selected by the 29 other teams. The good news is, unlike last season, none of the Astros Rule V eligible is in the MLB Pipeline‘s Top-100 prospects.

Last year, the Astros lost several players in the Rule V draft including Delino DeSheilds Jr. and Jandel Gustave, with Gustave returning to the Astros later in the season because he was offered back because he couldn’t be kept on the 40-man roster. Deshields went on to help the Texas Rangers win the American League West.

Let’s look at the top four prospects that need to be protected and give some reasons why they are worthy of a roster spot on the Astros 40-man roster.

Next: Astros 18th top prospect

Astros 18th top prospect

Chris Devenski

You might remember the name Devenski from somewhere; he was the prospect that the Astros traded country singer Brett Myers for to the Chicago White Sox. He was drafted in the 25th round of the 2011 draft as a reliever out of California State University Fullerton, but in his second season before the trade to the Astros was converted from a reliever to the starting rotation. A spot start led to Devenski becoming a starting pitcher with his three-pitch repertoire.

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I did an interview with Chris towards the end of the season, and he offered some insight on why he became a starter. You can read it here: Keeping up with the Astros Prospects: RHP Chris Devenski, he offers a funny story on what his minor league manager told him after his first start. Devenski spent most of 2015 at Double-A Corpus Christi, where he was a fan favorite.

Devenski took a big step forward in 2015, even earning a playoff start for the Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies in the National Championship game. In that game, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning in that start but settled with seven innings of one-hit baseball. He got the start in the playoff game because Dan Straily was called up to the Astros. He topped off at 96-mph while striking out three hitters to earn the Championship MVP for the Grizzlies.

Stats from Baseball-Reference: 7-4/ 3.01 ERA/ 104 strikeouts in 119 1/3 innings.

Verdict: Protect

Next: Astros 17th top prospect

Astros 17th top prospect

Teoscar Hernandez

After two straight offensive breakout seasons, Hernandez got off to a rocky start in 2015 with the Hooks. The 23-year-old outfielder was showing the making of a five-tool player in 2013-14, but his average took a big dip in 2015. However, his other tools were still present including 33 steals and 17 homers, but his OPS took a dive from his .897 in 2014 to .637 in 2015.

The Astros, fresh off of losing DeShields last year in the Rule V draft, you have to think that someone who hit .292/ 21 homers/ 85 RBI/ 33 stolen bases one year ago would be for sure picked by another team. Something that he does do very well in score runs, indicating that he has speed and the right hitters hitting behind him. Like most Astros prospects, he does have a tendency to strikeout a lot.

One thing he has going against him is that he plays the outfield, which the Astros have plenty of potential starters down the road in Kyle Tucker, Daz Cameron, Derek Fisher, and Jon Kemmer just to name a few. Will this hurt Hernadez’s chances of being added to the 40-man roster, not after what happened last year.

2015 Stats from Baseball-Reference: .219/ 17 homers/ 45 RBI/ 33 steals.

Verdict: Protect, but I can see them leaving him off too.

Next: Astros 16th top prospect

Astros 16th top prospect

Reymin Guduan

Despite being in the Astros organization for six years now, I really haven’t heard much about him before. What I do is that he is a left-handed pitcher who can throw in the upper 90’s. What Guduan offers is a pitcher who can throw hard (100 mph), but is still raw regarding control in general. He racks up many strikeouts, 245 strikeouts in 197 1/3 innings in the minors. He’s also very prone to walk batters, 162 of them, which is 7.4 walks every nine innings.

The Astros realized that he probably would struggle too much with command as a starter, so the wanted to see how he did out of the bullpen. Even though his 5.02 career ERA would not scare hitters, the fact that he could throw 100 mph with a hint of he has no clue where the ball is going, would give him the extra edge on the hitters over shorter spans.

While he seems like someone who would not be worth saving based on his stats, however, he is a left-handed flame-thrower that the Astros could use. Maybe working with Brent Strom, perhaps Guduan can learn to harness his stuff. If the Astros can’t re-sign Tony Sipp, Guaduan could be needed in the bigs soon being a left-hander. This might be someone that Luhnow gambles on not protecting with his high walk and ERA.

2015 Stats from Baseball-Reference: 4-6/ 5.52 ERA/ 59 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings.

Verdict: I’m on the fence, but someone who throws that hard could be swept up.

Next: Astros 9th top prospect?

Astros 9th top prospect Joe Musgrove Photo Credit by Tammy Tucker

Joseph Musgrove

Musgrove is the crown jewel of the Rule V eligible players, which is surprising since before 2015, he really hadn’t lived up to his draft rank. Musgrove was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. Musgrove was later traded in the J.A. Happ trade in 2012. At the time, he was supposed to be one of the key players in return for Happ. When the trade happened, I thought this guy could be with the Astros soon, and then we didn’t hear much about him until this past year.

Musgrove pitched at three different levels in 2015, making up for some of the lost time from injuries in previous seasons. I had the pleasure of interviewing him over the phone, then later got to meet him with the help of former Astros top prospect, Brett Phillips. You can check out his interview here: Keeping Up with the Astros Prospects: (RHP) Joe Musgrove.

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Musgrove represents a future pitcher who could be a number two or three pitcher, He is tall, 6’5”, and uses the height to throw off the hitters with a good downhill motion and low 90’s fastball. The Astros will not call him up to become a member of the bullpen; his future is in the rotation. While he is not in the MLB Pipeline top 100 top prospect list, Musgrove could join the list with a strong 2016 in Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies until he is needed in the big league rotation.

Musgrove had one of those seasons that most people can only dream of having. Hopefully, his dream of reaching the big leagues will happen soon. He’s a good pitcher and won the Astros pitcher of the year in Houston’s minor league system. I guess going 12-1 will open some eyes, it opened my eyes.

Next: Houston Astros: Weeding out the 40-man roster, Villar, Grossman.

2015 Stats from Baseball-Reference: 12-1/ 1.88 ERA/ 99 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings.

Verdict: Luhnow will be on the hot seat if they do not protect Musgrove.

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