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Houston Astros: Potential Bullpen Trade Targets

By Cody Poage |
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Reviewing the Reliever Trade Market

Jul 25, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) pitches during the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

For the first time in many moons, it appears that the Houston Astros do not need to revamp the entirety of their bullpen. Even though the bullpen struggled late in the 2015 season and those issues became even more evident in the postseason, the relief corps as a whole performed admirably. Not the best in baseball, but certainly not the worst.

However, this does not mean that bullpen won’t need some tinkering. There is room for improvement, especially in late innings situations. But the question is who would you bring in to shore up the ‘pen? Luckily for the Astros this offseason doesn’t seem to have a shortage of arms that should be available via trade this upcoming Hot Stove season.

Option #1: Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel is one name, along with a certain Cincinnati closer that will be discussed in a moment, that was viewed as a trade possibility for the Astros during this past July trade deadline. Needless to say, those talks did not come to fruition. That doesn’t mean though that general manager Jeff Luhnow shouldn’t make a call this winter to San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller to see if the two organizations can finally agree on a trade package for the four-time All-Star closer.

Regardless of the Padres price tag on Kimbrel, the possibility of adding a reliever of this caliber for 2016 sure looks mighty tempting if you are the Astros. The addition of Kimbrel would essentially move Luke Gregerson back to his familiar eighth-inning setup role and move everyone else down the pecking order as well, in essence already making the bullpen deeper than it was in 2015. Not to mention that Kimbrel would not be a rental player. He is under contract through 2017 with a $13 million club option for 2018. When considering the projected going rate for top closers over the next few years, then that price tag could end up being a bargain for any team that enlists in Kimbrel’s services.

The knock on any team trading for a closer is A. the long-term dollars used exclusively on a reliever and B. the prospects it would take to pry Kimbrel from southern California. Teams that are more invested in analytics, such as the Astros, have also started drifting away from the “traditional” closer role and relying more on the top reliever during the highest leverage situation.

The other side of the coin is just can’t simply ignore Kimbrel’s accomplishments as the primary closer throughout his career, even in the midst of a “down” year in 2015. Not only would it be nice to have a reliever that can throw a 97 MPH four-seam fastball and an 87 MPH curveball, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio (27.2% in 2015) would also be a nice addition to a bullpen that needs some firepower.

Next: Option #2

Option # 2: Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman is another well-known closer that the Astros were tied to in July trade rumors. And like the Kimbrel talks with the Padres, trade discussions with the Cincinnati Reds went nowhere. But that shouldn’t stop the Astros from asking about the hard-throwing closer again.

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But unlike Kimbrel, there is more risk associated with Chapman. The chief concern with Chapman is that he could be nothing more than a mere rental in 2016. He is arbitration eligible this offseason, and will hit the open free agent market after the conclusion of the 2016 season. This might affect the package that the Astros could offer the Reds if talks were to advance once again. However, with the Reds seemingly ready to rebuild, team president Walt Jocketty may be willing to compromise on a package of prospects to ensure that Chapman doesn’t leave only for a compensatory draft pick to return to his place.

And like the proposed addition of Kimbrel, Chapman would also be a proven flamethrower in a bullpen that needs one. If that is the primary focus, then he would be an even better option than Kimbrel in 2016. A closer that can throw a 99-100 MPH four-seam fastball that can top out close to 104 MPH and be effective is a luxury that all organizations would love to have. Not to mention he had a 29.9% strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2015 and an astonishing 40.6% ratio in 2014. For crying out loud, the guy has his own filter on Statcast on MLB.com!

Courtesy of Statcast from MLB.com

Need I say more why he should on the Astro radar?

Next: Option #3

Option # 3: Drew Storen

Aug 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher

Drew Storen

(22) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers in the eighth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 9-5. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Another trade candidate that hasn’t necessarily been linked to the Astros yet is embattled Washington Nationals reliever, and sometimes closer, Drew Storen. But there are plenty of Houston fans wanting to see (myself included) Luhnow explore the option of adding Storen, who may need a fresh start after a tumultuous 2015 in Washington.

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After saving 43 games for the Nationals in 2011, Storen has been inserted and taken out the closer role numerous times. The latest closing carousel was set into motion after the Jonathan Papelbon acquisition from the Philadelphia Phillies during this year’s trade deadline. Before Papelbon arrived, Storen was having an arguably fine season. In the first half of the 2015 season, the 28-year old right-hander finished with a 1.89 ERA and 2.14 FIP in 33.1 innings pitched. However, in the second half, Storen saw his statistics balloon to 5.82 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 21.2 innings pitched. Needless to say that the Papelbon trade rattled the reliever. That is why a change of scenery in Houston may help him reach his full potential and help reestablish himself before he hits free agency after the 2016 season.

It does remain to be seen if the Nationals front office will consider trading Storen, especially when the organization just hired Dusty Baker and Mike Maddux as their manager and pitching coach respectively. But the cost of acquiring Storen would more likely be far less than the price for a Kimbrel or Chapman.

Buying low on a reliever that has a chance to be among any staff’s best options seems to be a move that the Astros front office would highly consider. Most bang for their buck if you will. Storen will be a nice alternative for the Astros if their options seem to fall through.

The bullpen is one area of the Astro that dramatically turned around in 2015. But after a long summer the pitching staff began to falter in the fall, which is why it is imperative that team adds another quality arm or two for their 2016 season. If there is a chance that one of those quality arms turns out to be one of the top closers in recent memory or a down on his luck pitcher who may need a change of scenery, then the Astros may as well swing for the fences. After all, this is Crush City.

Next: Astros Minors: The Astros shut A.J. Reed down for Arizona Fall League

**Statistics provided by Fangraphs & Statcast from MLB.com**

**Contract information provided by SportTrac.com**

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