Aug 25, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez (30) is restrained by home plate umpire Eric Cooper as Gomez and New York Yankees catcher John Ryan Murphy (66) go face to face after Gomez flew out in the sixth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
I admit it. Perhaps you feel the same. To me, the Wild Card Game is not the playoffs. Something about watching the Astros keep their team store open all night to move as many overpriced Postseason-branded hoodies as possible felt unseemly. Baseball has always been a sport that appreciates the role of randomness in its outcome, and adjusts accordingly. It takes 162 games to figure out which rosters are strongest, and the playoffs take fewer teams than any other major sports to acknowledge that the regular season is most important.
As a compromise, baseball decided to reward division winners more in its latest playoff expansion and penalize the pre-existing Wild Card by making them play a coin flip with the second-best non-division winner. There is good and bad to this structure. But one thing we can all agree on: not winning your division is now crappier. By coughing up the AL West to the Rangers, the Astros have to win a coin toss now to get into the “real” playoffs of series-based play. No matter how many t-shirts the Astros successfully push onto the masses in a 48-hour flash sale.
That said, the Wild Card Game is still fun and exciting and dramatic, and winning it gives us a new lease on life. It also schedules a date with the Royals, a team clearly inferior to the #2-seeded Blue Jays. So there’s hope of true post-season play. Let’s break down the play-in game.
I will use Weighed On-Base Average (wOBA) as my stat of choice in looking at offensive left/right splits for both lineups. It is essentially a weighted form of OPS to more accurately balance between the value of on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG). Traditional OPS tends to overvalue slugging and undervalue getting on base. For more detailed information on wOBA, FanGraphs has you covered.
For pitchers, I am utilizing xFIP or Fielding-Independent Pitching. The xFIP formula attempts to account for the quality of defense and park factors to adequately assess how well a pitcher performed (wait for it) independent of his fielding. Many studies have shown a pitcher has relatively little — but not zero — control over the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. Thus, xFIP attempts to isolate a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed to get at his true individual value. For more detailed information on xFIP, FanGraphs again has you covered.
(4) hits a single during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports” width=”300″ height=”199″ /> Jun 28, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) hits a single during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
*If Gomez is ready to start, Rasmus will move to left field. Gomez will likely bat sixth, bumping Valbuena and Carter down a spot, and removing Tucker from the starting lineup.
Pitching Staff
Pitcher Name (2015 xFIP vs. R/L) LHP Dallas Keuchel (2.92/2.19)
Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Houston Astros pinch runner Jonathan Villar (2) is greeted outside the dugout after scoring against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
What can we conclude about our roster? Here’re a few points:
1. The last guys on: Villar and Thatcher. The last guys off: Chad Qualls and Mike Fiers. Villar’s inclusion is for speed and an underrated bat. He is not purely a pinch-runner and has been a better hitter than a post-injury Lowrie, in particular against right-handed pitching. Lowrie is lost against righties (.206/.288/.353 on the season, even worse since his return), and is on the roster only to pinch-hit for Valbuena or Castro against a lefty. I do not think Hinch will start him, but it’s not impossible. A.J. loves his trusty veterans. It comes down to Lowrie vs. Carter, with Valbuena playing the vacated corner spot. I expect Carter.
In the case of Thatcher over Qualls and Fiers, it comes down to need. Scott Kazmir and Tony Sipp are not traditional lefty specialists, and both could be called on for multi-inning work. I would think Hinch wants to balance his bullpen by including a second LOOGY as well as Perez. The Yankees have several potent left-handed hitters.
2. Man, our lineup is lopsided. The Astros’ top hitters are all elite at punishing left-handed pitching, and merely average to slightly above against righties. The bottom of the lineup, meanwhile, tends to be terrible against lefties, but also average to slightly above against righties.
In practice, that means the Astros have a very flat distribution of lineup value against right-handers, with their stars mortal and their scrubs respectable. Against lefties, they have a few assault rifles followed by a swarm of finger guns. Tanaka being a righty, the numbers suggest the Astros are as likely to get a crucial hit early from Valbuena, Carter or Tucker as they are from Altuve, Springer or Correa.
3. Altuve was our 6th or 7th best hitter vs. RHP this season. He obliterated lefties and is less likely to be overmatched by great pitchers than some of the guys ranked ahead of him. In October, that matters. But there is a huge platoon split in play with Altuve.
In many ways, he reminds me a lot of my childhood idol, Nomar Garciaparra. Like Nomar, Altuve is a free-swinging right-handed batting champion who hits in the low-mid .300s on a regular basis. Also like Nomar, he absolutely destroys lefties to mask only being pretty good against righties. The Yankees, who we’ll get to, are starting a righty.
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4.Conger has a case to start — at DH. It won’t happen, but carrying Stassi and starting Conger at DH makes some sense based on Conger’s amazing work vs. RHP this year, which was the best on the team (though in an admittedly smaller sample size than the regulars). He was much worse in 2014 with the Angels (.276 wOBA vs. RHP), so I’m fine with the default lineup configuration, and not blowing a roster spot on Stassi.
It is hard to pinch-hit with Conger, by the way, because it leaves the team without another catcher, which means they can’t also pinch-hit for Castro at a critical juncture down the road versus a tough lefty. For this reason, I expect them to give strong consideration to carrying Stassi. They do not want Conger’s defense or Castro’s offense vs. a left-handed pitcher late in the game. A third catcher is the only way around that choice.
(33) after hitting a three run home-run against the Houston Astros in the seventh inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports” width=”300″ height=”218″ /> Jun 26, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Chris Young (24) celebrates with right fielder Garrett Jones (33) after hitting a three run home-run against the Houston Astros in the seventh inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 4, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi (28) walks on the field during the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
What can we conclude about the Yankees roster? Here’re a few points:
1. Joe Girardi has major lineup decisions to make. Rodriguez, McCann, and Headley are the only guys I put in the above lineup at 95% or higher confidence. Young probably has to play, but it will mean sitting Gardner or Ellsbury (I think they sit Ellsbury and play Gardner, who historically and in 2015 has handled lefties well). Beltran has had a rough year vs. lefties, but carries a hard-earned reputation for post-season brilliance, and should play. The rookie, Refsynder, is a downgrade defensively at second base, but could easily play over Ryan or Gregarious for the offense against a left-hander.
2. Chris Young, man. The Houston native owns his hometown team, but he’s just as good against any pitcher throwing with his left arm. He is well into the platoon bat portion of his career, but he might be the best platoon guy in baseball. Keuchel will pitch him carefully, and Young will leave for a pinch-hitter — Ackley or the non-starter between Ellsbury and Gardner, most likely — once the Astros go to the bullpen.
3. If Miller is allowed to face a lefty, Hinch is fired. Deal? Deal. (In fairness to A.J., he sees the same numbers, and I fully expect that some combination of Villar, Lowrie, Gonzalez and Marisnick will be utilized off the bench against Miller.)
4. Tanaka’s (slightly) reverse split. There isn’t enough data to show a definite trend, but Tanaka is a strike-thrower who has very similar numbers against righties and lefties, with a career .672 OPS against from RHB vs. .660 from LHB. The reverse split has been a bit more pronounced this year as he pitches through a small tear in his UCL. For a right-heavy Houston lineup, it’s a mildly encouraging sign.
Next: What to watch for with the Astros
What to watch for in the matchup
Aug 9, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Luke Gregerson (44) pitches the ball against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning at O.co Coliseum. The Athletics won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
What to watch for:
1. Bullpen usage. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has long advocated abandoning conventional pitcher usage in single-elimination games. Today, he has a must-read piece tailored to this year’s Yankees/Astros game. Cameron believes the Astros should go to the bullpen very early to blow up the Yankees platoon matchups and avoid trusting a short-rest version of Keuchel with a second — or certainly third — trip through a lineup geared towards him.
In reality, this won’t happen. Let me go on record: Keuchel will throw 105 pitches, no matter how it’s going. Hinch is simply too conservative in staff management for the most modern approach. Yesterday, I argued on Twitter that Lance McCullers should have been pinch-hit for to start the top of the 5th inning, following an inning in which he dropped a routine toss covering first base and then balked in the same runner with the go-ahead run. Evan Drellich, a tremendous beat writer for the Chronicle, disagreed with my request:
@MMitchTX two runs on four hits vs. one of your best pitchers through four innings and 74 pitches isn’t reason to pull.
McCullers was left in. He struck out to lead off the 5th; the next three batters reached, and McCullers promptly gave up the lead in the bottom of the inning — his third time through the heart of the Diamondbacks order — and did not pitch after that. Hinch has routinely let his starters throw an extra inning in debatable spots, going a third and even fourth time through the lineup. It’s ironic, but the Moneyball 2.0 Astros who receive so much national attention for being progressive have the playoff manager who is unquestionably most likely to pull a Grady Little. Like many managers who are “players’ managers”, he trusts his veterans and values stability and predictability. Players like that. Number-crunchers disagree.
Girardi, however, is almost certainly going to get creative. Tanaka will start, but most analysts expect to see Betances and Miller for multiple innings of relief each. My best guess is that the well-rested Tanaka will go four innings, five if he’s cruising, followed by 12-15 outs from Wilson, Betances, and Miller. That doesn’t quite qualify as a bullpen game, but it’s close.
The best way I can put it: for Carlos Correa’s third plate appearance, I fully expect a reliever to be in. For Alex Rodriguez’s third trip, I am equally confident Keuchel will still be in.
Knowing this, and being aware of the research on pitcher performance later in games, how Keuchel does in that third trip through the order will go a long way towards deciding who wins this game.
2. Can we flip the offensive approach mid-game?
Knowing Tanaka is a) likely not in for long, and b) doesn’t walk people (1.5 BB per 9 in his career), the Astros are going to be swinging away, as they usually do. This strategy worked well for them against Tanaka in June, when they erased a six-run deficit with home runs from Correa, Altuve, and Carter. In some ways, that’s the great hope in this game: Tanaka is not the type of pitcher who will use the Astros’ lack of a sophisticated approach to plate appearances against them.
But Betances and Miller are. They thrive on working ahead in the count and getting chases. Betances allowed only 4.8 hits per nine innings, an insane figure. But he also walked a very high 4.3/9 and allowed six homers. Miller is similarly unhittable, with a slightly less erratic 2.7 BB/9. The same aggressive approach that might get Tanaka on the ropes in the third inning will absolutely not work against the twin aces of the Yankee pen. Discipline and waiting for a hittable pitch in each at-bat are necessary to success.
Next: Winning Formula for Both Teams
Winning Formula for Both Teams
Aug 25, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros infielder Carlos Correa (1) lays on the ground after forcing out New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner (11) at second base in the ninth inning against at Yankee Stadium. The Astros defeated the Yankees 15-1. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Winning Formula: Houston
Keuchel is dominant, as he was in his first two starts against the Yankees. The Astros get a two-run homer on the board against Tanaka early and use their aggression on the bases to bleed an insurance run out of a very strong bullpen.
Meanwhile, Harris, Perez, and Gregerson get the last five outs by escaping an eighth-inning jam left by a tiring Keuchel and winning some drawn-out, high-leverage ABs with the veteran Yankee bats. 3-1 Astros, on to Kansas City.
Winning Formula: New York
Keuchel begins to wear down by the fourth or fifth inning of a one-run game. Hinch gets Fields and Sipp loose, but pulls a Grady Little and lets Keuchel talk him out of a pitching change against Rodriguez with two runners on in the fifth or sixth inning. Rodriguez produces an extra-base hit, Hinch closes the barn door a couple batters too late, and the Astros fail miserably against Betances and Miller for the next hour, losing 4-1.
Which outcome is my prediction? Well, in an inversion of the typical homer fan head vs. heart dichotomy that backs up the notion I’m a pessimist: my head says these are two equally likely scenarios. My heart, however, fears an inevitability to the latter progression.
Most fans consider the Astros to be in the playoffs. Come Tuesday night, one thing is guaranteed: it’s certainly going to feel like it.
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